City says economic indicators are stable despite Trump turbulence

Despite worries following the whirlwind of news, tariffs and executive orders from the federal government, a presentation given to the Albuquerque City Council last week suggested the turbulence has yet to hit the local economy.

The presentation, delivered by Christine Boerner, a city economist, stated that economic models and gross receipts tax predictions have not shown much year-to-year change despite the onslaught of news, particularly around tariffs and a stock market dip.

“Don’t misunderstand what I’m saying, that I think everything is just fine. A lot of what’s going on could still be filtering through the system,” Boerner said.

In their proposed budget for the fiscal year 2025, the mayor’s office expressed concern that economic disruptions — such as cuts in federal funding, increased inflation, and even war in Europe and the Middle East driving up gas prices — would require the city to reduce nonessential spending and consider selling nonessential property, equipment and vehicles.

The same proposed budget predicted that gross receipts taxes — a tax collected on nearly all exchanges of goods and services that funds everything from parks to police salaries — would grow in the next fiscal year, but at a slower rate.

“While there’s a lot happening at the federal level, there’s not much of a change in the economic models,” Boerner said. “It generally looks the same as it was in the prior administration.”

Boerner also said that nearly all business sectors saw growth in GRT collections in February compared to 2024.

The data indicated growth in accommodation, food, construction, professional, scientific and technical services.

The data showed that health care and social assistance declined slightly, but nothing fell as noticeably as retail.

“Retail has pretty much struggled the entire year so far,” Boerner said.

Councilor Dan Lewis asked if the decline in retail GRT represented a long-term trend. Boerner said she couldn’t say for sure, but that it was clear that retail sales in Albuquerque were hurting.

“There’s a lot going there,” Boerner said. “But for us, retail has been struggling.”

Boerner went on to say that nationally, there is not as much of a pronounced decline in retail. She didn’t have any data on the cause but speculated that consumers are worried about an economic slowdown and are cutting back.

“It’s just something I think folks are worried about, all the information that’s out there,” Boerner said.

Albuquerque’s situation seems to contrast with that of national retail sales. U.S. retail sales rose 1.4% in March and 4.6% compared to last year, according to federal Census Bureau data. Much of the rise was attributed to cars and car parts, as consumers look to get ahead of looming tariffs.

Lewis also asked if the decline was felt more in small retailers or big box stores, information that Boerner didn’t have but said she would look into.

Councilor Klarissa Peña said she’d like to see the retail data broken out as online sales versus brick-and-mortar sales. Boerner said that information, much of which is handed down by the state, was not readily available.

Looking forward, Boerner said a forecast from the University of New Mexico’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research could provide more insight into the local economic future. That forecast is expected in early May.