The finale to our economy series

The past couple of weeks have been an active news cycle to say the least.

With a special legislative session that wrapped in less than a day and President Joe Biden’s decision not to run for reelection, New Mexico headlines have been pretty busy.

This week, the Albuquerque Journal’s business desk releases the fifth and final story in the economy series we’ve been publishing for the past month or so. I wrote the final article as assistant business editor, a position I started last week at the Journal.

As I worked on the finale to the series, a recurring theme emerged: uncertainty for New Mexico’s economic future.

New Mexico has a lot of oil and gas money, but Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s administration doesn’t want to continue leaning on oil and gas. State officials want to see a more diverse stream of income, incorporating other industries like renewables and manufacturing.

Economist Kelly O’Donnell thinks the energy transition will start in earnest within the next decade. Oil supporters like Power the Future’s Larry Behrens disagree.

But the reality of such a change also depends on federal politics.

With Biden’s recent announcement to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, the political climate and forecasts took a sharp swing in another direction. If former President Donald Trump were to take office again and start walking back Biden’s green energy efforts, it’s likely New Mexico’s renewable energy future would be affected.

The economic outlook on a national level in general isn’t looking great, UNM economist Michael O’Donnell told me. It reveals trends for New Mexico’s economic future. He said forecasts show an average job growth rate of less than 1% per year over the next five years, in both Albuquerque and the U.S.

It’s not ideal.

Outside factors are also creating economic challenges.

State economic official Mark Roper said quality of life is a key component that contributes to the economy. So in a city like Albuquerque, or even the state as a whole, high crime levels and poor education aren’t doing the economy any favors.

I think we can all expect the 2025 legislative session to focus on public safety, after Lujan Grisham failed to get proposed crime priorities through the special session.

There’s a lot of uncertainty in the air right now, both on a state and federal level.

Hopefully come winter, with the results of the presidential election and the start of a state legislative session, we’ll have more answers than questions about New Mexico’s economic outlook.