Updated outdoor recreation statistics highlight potential for Cibola County

GRANTS — Treading a familiar footpath volunteers are still working to carve out, Les Gaines stopped for a moment, not to catch his breath but to look at the two crows soaring above the quiet mountainous hillsides.

“I’m blessed to be here,” he said multiple times hiking around Cibola County. The 68-year-old cancer survivor won’t be stopped from making it outdoors multiple times a week and is looking to share the joy with others who don’t live there — something he thinks could majorly help Cibola County’s economic base.

Gaines helped develop a recent report from Montana-based research institute Headwaters Economics. It highlights the significant potential for outdoor recreation in two New Mexico counties — Cibola and McKinley counties — and the direct economic impact the industry has on the rural communities.

“We were able to compile this data that is just phenomenal, really, of how much activity we're getting,” Gaines said. “But I think it shines a light on how much better we can be.”

The report found that, from June 2023 to May 2024, Cibola and McKinley counties had more than 114,000 annual trail trips — more than 300 trips per day and amounting to more than the combined population of both counties.

It resulted in $1.7 million in visitor spending, $249,000 in labor income and $127,000 in local and state tax revenue, according to the report.

“It’s a matter of helping to tell that story and get the word out and get more folks in the community on board with this vision of outdoor recreation, not just as a fun thing for the folks who live there but a really valuable thing for their economy as well,” said Megan Lawson, author of the Headwaters Economics report.

Throwing a big rock off a trail as he hiked on the warm December afternoon, Gaines said he tries to get outdoors three times a week, though he hopes to bump that up after retiring as the acting interim executive director of the Grants/Cibola County Chamber of Commerce and the Mining Museum. He also participates with Cibola Outdoors and the Cibola Trail Alliance.

Gaines has a love for Grants that’s kept him there for nearly his entire life. Rito Canyon may be his favorite trail to travel, but Cibola County is better known for other major trails like the Continental Divide Trail, or CDT, the Great Divide Trail and the Trail of the Ancients.

“We have so much to offer,” Gaines said.

Lawson said having concrete data from Economics Headwaters’ report gives Cibola County credibility to seek growth for its high-potential outdoor economy.

“Without that, it might be easy to dismiss this as just sort of a pie-in-the-sky aspiration,” she said.

She said the report also helps make a case for funding with local, state and federal government agencies.

“We don’t need the whole pie,” Gaines said. “We just need a piece of the pie.”

Economically desperate for it

Cibola County has struggled to increase, even maintain, its economic base over the past decade. Gaines said the community is economically desperate for a new source of income.

The county’s per capita income and median household income are expected to increase slightly, by 3% and 2%, respectively, from 2024 to 2029, according to Cibola Counties Economic Development Foundation, while the population continues to trickle down slowly.

However, those incomes were higher a decade ago than they are today.

In 2014, Cibola County had about 9,960 jobs, according to New Mexico State University’s Arrowhead Center. In 2024, the county had 8,776 people employed. That’s a nearly 12% employment decrease over the past decade.

Similarly, per capita income took a hit, decreasing 7% from 2014 to 2024 — going from $25,920 to $24,022.

Getting more residents and visitors to take advantage of outdoor recreation doesn’t necessarily equate directly to higher per capita or household income. But it could boost the local tax base and jobs.

Industries like retail, accommodation and food service employed some 2,400 people in Cibola County in 2024, dwarfed by other industries like health care or social assistance and public administration, according to the Economic Development Foundation. Outdoor recreation has the potential to improve tourism-based industries, translating to economic benefits through local employment and taxes, according to Headwaters Economics.

“As trail use grows, so will the outdoor recreation economy,” the Headwaters Economics report states.

Nearly one-third of trail visitors to Cibola and McKinley were made by people coming in from out of town, mainly Albuquerque, according to the report. With that in mind, Lawson said the county could consider capitalizing on tourism.

“When folks are coming in from out of town, how do we make sure they stay for a burger and an ice cream afterward? Or maybe spend the night, and have a couple of days of hiking or horseback riding or riding bikes?” she said.

There are also outdoor recreation businesses that can grow as the industry does. One developing business is Rinconada Adventures, which aims to eventually provide guided tours, offers “bikepacking” trips and rents outdoor gear.

Cofounder Michael Brown said he and his wife don’t particularly excel at any outdoor sports, but Grants has many trails and activities anyone can participate in, areas accessible to newcomers and other spots that are challenging for pros. The unique landscape could be an outdoor hotspot, he said.

“At the risk of getting a little more traffic out here, it'd be a very different experience than some of the current attractions outside of Santa Fe or Colorado,” he said. “There's lots of room for us to expand without still feeling overcrowded.”

Aiming to open up Rinconada Adventures in late spring or early summer, with the additional hiring of a general staffer, Brown said he’s excited to get things underway in a more official capacity, on top of behind-the-scenes work he and his wife do to boost the community’s outdoor recreation economy.

‘You can only do so much’

Every Thursday evening, save for winter nights, the Cibola Trail Alliance meets to work on the trails — shoveling dirt, stacking rocks, that sort of thing, Gaines said. For every hour of work, the alliance gets matching funds it can use to leverage other additional grant funding and resources for trail construction and maintenance.

That’s because Grants was chosen as a participant in the federal Recreation Economy for Rural Communities planning assistance program in 2019.

The volunteers work within parameters marked by the U.S. Forest Service, such as a certain window between trees to carve out a path or crafting a trail that goes up and down to consider water flow impacts.

As a spin-off from that work, Gaines met Lawson to work with Headwaters Economics to set up infrared trail counters — something key in accurately measuring trail counts, according to Headwaters Economics. Trail usage had previously relied on periodic, single-point data collection, according to the nonprofit, as opposed to the updated approach used in its New Mexico report using on-the-ground counters and data sources like fitness-tracking apps as well as considering factors like geography and weather.

Lawson said clear interest and passion driven by a “small but mighty group of volunteers” is what drew Headwaters Economics to include Cibola County in her report’s scope. She described the volunteer work as admirable and inspiring, something that could benefit from having more concrete outdoor recreation statistics.

But are volunteers enough to fully build up the outdoor recreation industry?

Lawson said an important part of the story in Cibola County is that volunteers working hours in exchange for in-kind match funds can only get so far. For example, she said, if Grants sought out a $1 million grant for trail building, it would take 60 years of volunteer hours to come up with the match.

There needs to be other models or programs to support these kinds of grassroots efforts, she said.

“You can only do so much with volunteers and some chainsaws,” Lawson said.

Walking along a path full of piñons with traces of snow lingering in the shadows, Gaines said he doesn’t really like to travel. Why would he, he said, when he has everything he wants here? He wants to help others realize the outdoor potential Cibola has, but it takes time to get work done, not only in getting the word out but also in physically creating the trails.

The Cibola Trail Alliance recently lost its excavator, which was a major blow, Gaines said. The donation-based organization pulled together about $12,000 to purchase the construction tool but police seized it after discovering the dealership that sold the excavator to the alliance had stolen it, he said.

Gaines said the group never really recovered from that. Members raised about $3,000 through a GoFundMe drive and bought a small dozer, he said, but the whole committee was discouraged after that.

Gaines took a moment to look over the serene landscape before him, flags marking volunteers' trail construction progress.

“It would be cool to get this done before I die,” he said.