Jay Newton Small: Abortion and female voters remain challenges for Domenici's campaign

Nella Domenici has an abortion problem. Not personally, but certainly politically.

The 63-year-old Republican candidate for U.S. Senate is struggling with how to convince New Mexico women voters that she’s not going to take away their access to abortions, while not exactly being pro-choice. Her website repeats former President Bill Clinton’s iconic line that abortion should be: “safe, legal and, most importantly, rare,” and Domenici says she supports New Mexico state laws, but I asked her what her personal stance is on the issue.

“Am I pro-choice?” she repeats my question in a telephone interview late Wednesday. “I don’t even think those terms. Those words don’t have meaning anymore. If you really go back and look, there’s people who believe in (abortion up to) 15 weeks and they call that pro-life, and people who believe in (abortion at) 15 weeks and call it pro-choice.”

She is adamant that she would not support a national abortion ban, something that her opponent, Senator Martin Heinrich, has run commercials saying she’ll do. At the same time, she won’t say if she’d vote to make access to abortion a right for all women — a bill Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has said repeatedly he’d bring to the floor next session. “We’re talking hypotheticals here,” she says.

When asked about Project 2025, former President Donald Trump’s policy roadmap which not only calls for a national abortion ban, but a ban on abortion pills, she scoffs: “I don’t mean to be rude, but I literally have not read a word of that.” Meanwhile, Domenici was scheduled to attend a rally this weekend with a group, Independent Women’s Voice, which is a Project 2025 partner.

Why is Domenici twisting herself into pretzels on this issue? She’s losing women. Heinrich led Domenici among women in the latest Albuquerque Journal poll 55% to 33%. And she’s not the only one: Trump was losing women to Vice President Kamala Harris by the same margin.

The post Dobbs landscape post Dobbs — the June 24, 2022, Dobbs ruling by the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade — has been fraught with landmines for Republican candidates looking to appeal to women voters. The majority of them believe that Congress should pass a law guaranteeing a woman’s right to an abortion — 70%, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation survey of more than 3,000 women conducted May 23 to June 5.

The group also found that 57% of Republican and Republican-leaning women only supported a nationwide ban on abortion after the 15th week of pregnancy, 79% wanted to preserve access to abortion when the mother’s life is at risk, 69% in the cases of rape or incest and 60% want to leave it in the hands of states.

Democrats have seized on the issue nationwide to much effect. “In the Dobbs era, Democrats are focusing on abortion in advertising much more than prior years,” says Michelle Swers, a political science professor at Georgetown University who has written several books on women in U.S. politics. “You are seeing Republican candidates trying to find ways to answer this attack.”

In neighboring Arizona, Congressman Juan Ciscomani, a Republican in a toss-up race in the 6th District, has put out ads accusing his female Democratic opponent of lying about his position on abortion — like Domenici, he says he doesn’t support a national abortion ban—and showing him talking about his support for abortion exemptions in the cases of rape, incest and to save the life of the mother. Congressman Mike Lawler is also in a toss-up race in New York’s 17th District and he has an ad out promoting his support for in vitro fertilization and his opposition to a national abortion ban while sitting with his wife.

Domenici sent Heinrich a cease-and-desist letter over his ads, though that did not deter him from airing them. “He’s completely lied and said that when I’m in the Senate, I will be controlled by male senators, which is disgusting,” Domenici says.

Heinich’s campaign spokeswoman Ronja Abel responded: “Nella Domenici was — by her own admission — handpicked by extreme, anti-choice Republicans who are bankrolling her campaign to secure the majority they need in the Senate to pass a national abortion ban and strip millions of women of their rights. … So it comes as absolutely no surprise that women in New Mexico overwhelmingly support Martin Heinrich over Nella Domenici.”

Once a dependable constituency, white women have been trending away from Republicans nationally in the wake of Dobbs. In the 2022 midterm elections, white women overall went for Republicans by a margin of 8 percentage points, down from an 18% margin in the previous midterm elections in 2018 and a 30% margin for Donald Trump in 2016.

All of which is why this summer saw a seismic change on the issue of abortion at the Republican National Convention. A national abortion ban had been enshrined in the GOP’s platform for more than 40 years, but Trump, seeing his polling continue to wane amongst women, controversially asked to take it out. Instead, on the campaign trail he talks about letting states decide the issue — a position Domenici shares — and often mentions his support of in vitro fertilization in speeches. And Vice-Presidential nominee J.D. Vance reversed himself from his previous support of a nationwide abortion ban in Tuesday night’s debate.

In her second year at Harvard Business School, Domenici unexpectedly found herself pregnant. She decided to keep the baby girl and graduated in the top 5% of her class while six months pregnant. But she felt she couldn’t be a good mom and work 18-hour days, and so she turned down a dream job consulting at McKinsey & Company. She is prouder than ever that her daughter now works at McKinsey.

“I promised myself because of that, that I would work super hard to be a great mother and I would always fight to rise up in a man’s dominated world. Twenty-five years later, I became the CFO of the biggest hedge fund in the world,” she says. “I’ve tried so hard to be a role model for women.”

Domenici says she’s an “independent” candidate who doesn’t hue to party norms. Her focus on abortion, if elected, will be to do a better job preventing pregnancies. “I believe strongly that (it’s) 2024 and our country should be—with great enthusiasm and zest — helping women understand their birth control choices and making sure they’re accessible and available,” she says.

“That’s unequivocally, unequivocally the best way to prevent all of the turmoil that goes with an abortion decision.”