Journal Poll: Democratic incumbents have strong leads in 1st and 3rd congressional districts

The Democratic incumbents in New Mexico’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts both have comfortable leads against their Republican challengers, according to new Journal polls.

In the 1st Congressional District, 53% of registered, likely voters surveyed plan to vote or had already voted for Democratic incumbent Melanie Stansbury, while 36% of voters surveyed intend to or had already cast a ballot for Republican challenger Steve Jones, according to a Journal poll.

The 3rd Congressional District had an almost identical breakdown, with Democratic incumbent Teresa Leger Fernández holding 52% support from likely voters surveyed and Republican challenger Sharon Clahchischilliage with 35% support.

In both races, 11% of voters were undecided.

“We have two incumbent U.S. congresswomen vying against two less well-known Republicans in blue-leaning congressional districts, so it’s definitely an uphill battle for the Republicans Steve Jones and Sharon Clahchischilliage,” said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc., the company that conducted the polls.

Most voters in both districts are sticking with their party’s candidate. Stansbury had 85% support among Democrats, while Jones had 77% support among of Republicans. Leger Fernández had 84% support among Democrats, while Clahchischilliage had 79% support among Republicans.

Both Democrats also garnered more support from independent or decline-to-state voters in their district. In District 3, Leger Fernández had support from 55% of independent voters, Clahchischilliage had 20% support and 21% of independent voters were undecided. In District 1, Stansbury had support from 53% of independent voters, Jones had 28% support among independents and 19% of independents were undecided.

A changed map, but still blue

During redistricting in 2021, the 3rd Congressional District picked up conservative areas in eastern New Mexico like portions of Hobbs. But it also lost Rio Rancho, which tends to lean right. That means the district lost a red-leaning community and picked up some strong red-leaning counties, so the overall blue lean of the district did not change significantly, according to Sanderoff.

Where did Rio Rancho go? The 1st Congressional District picked it up. The 1st Congressional District includes much of Albuquerque, Placitas and Rio Rancho, all of Torrance, Guadalupe, De Baca and Lincoln counties and a portion of Roswell. While the district is more conservative than it was, redistricting did not significantly dilute its blue lean.

1st Congressional District

A former state legislator from Albuquerque, Stansbury, 45, is seeking her second full term in the 1st Congressional District. She first won in a special election to fill Deb Haaland’s seat after Haaland was appointed Interior Secretary.

A former energy executive from Ruidoso, Jones, 78, has a greater challenge getting name recognition among voters, Sanderoff said.

“He’ll get the bulk of the Republican vote,” Sanderoff said. “But can he pick up crossover Democrats? Can he pick up a lot of independents? Has Melanie Stansbury been doing a good job at getting better known in Rio Rancho?”

While Stansbury had more support than her opponent from women and men in the district, there was a gender gap in support for the two candidates. Stansbury had 56% of support among women voters compared to 31% support for Jones. Of the men surveyed, 49% supported Stansbury, while 40% supported Jones.

The race is also an example of a trend apparent in other state and national elections: more support for Democratic candidates among voters with more educational attainment and more support for Republican candidates among voters with less educational attainment.

Among voters with no four-year college degree, Jones had 44% support compared to 43% support for Stansbury. Stansbury had 63% support among voters with a four-year college or graduate degree, while Jones had 27% support.

3rd Congressional District

Leger Fernández, 65, is a former Santa Fe lawyer running for her third term in office. Clahchischilliage is a former state legislator from Shiprock. Clahchischilliage, who did not give her age in the Journal questionnaire, will likely do better in northwestern New Mexico than Leger Fernández’s previous opponent, Alexis Martinez Johnson, because she has name recognition in the area and is Native American, Sanderoff said.

Only one Republican has won the 3rd Congressional District since its creation after the 1980 census. Former Rep. Bill Redmond was elected to finish Bill Richardson’s term after Richardson became the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in 1997. Richardson was the first person elected to the seat.

The 3rd Congressional District is large and geographically diverse, reaching across northern New Mexico and down into the eastern part of the state. It has a high concentration of Native American voters and includes the bulk of the Navajo Nation in New Mexico, and many of the pueblos.

“Generally speaking, Native Americans are very concerned about federal issues as well as state because a lot of the trust lands and a lot of their interactions are with federal government agencies,” Sanderoff said. “So they pay very close attention to what goes on with the president and in the federal bureaucracy.”

Native American and Hispanic voters in north-central New Mexico tend to be loyal to the Democratic Party, Sanderoff said.

Farmington, Aztec and Bloomfield are a conservative pocket in the Four Corners area. Conservative communities in eastern New Mexico, including part of Hobbs and the bulk of Roswell, are also part of the district, but are likely not enough to offset higher-population liberal areas like Taos and Santa Fe.

Women voters seem more enthusiastic than male voters about Leger Fernández, while Clahchischilliage had a similar level of support between both men and women.

Leger Fernández had 48% support among men and 57% support among women. Clahchischilliage had 35% support among men and 34% support among women. More men, 14%, were undecided while 9% of women were undecided.

Methodology

The Journal poll is based on a random sample of 360 voters in the 1st Congressional District and a random sample of 344 voters in the 3rd Congressional District who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by gender, education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 10 through Oct. 18, excluding the late afternoon of Oct. 14 (due to the U.S. Senate debate). The voter sample in the 1st Congressional District poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points. The voter sample in the 3rd Congressional District has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.

Both cellphone numbers (90%) and landlines (10%) of likely general election voters were used in the 1st Congressional District. Both cellphone numbers (89%) and landlines (11%) of likely general election voters were also used in the 3rd Congressional District.