Keller, White brace for runoff election showdown in Albuquerque mayoral race

The polls had barely closed on Election Day before a new showdown started to come into focus.

After finishing atop a six-candidate field, incumbent Albuquerque Mayor Tim Keller and challenger Darren White wasted little time launching their first salvos in what’s expected to be a pugnacious runoff election.

A day after Election Day, White said his campaign was pleasantly surprised by unofficial election returns that showed him just 5 percentage points behind Keller — with 36% of votes cast for the incumbent and 31% for White.

“Two-thirds of the voters last night rejected an eight-year incumbent, and that’s because crime and homelessness are out of control,” White told the Journal.

He also said his campaign would be competitive with Keller when it comes to fundraising in the run-up to the Dec. 9 runoff election, even though the mayor will receive an additional $377,973 in public campaign finance funds this week after being the only candidate to qualify for the program this summer.

“We have received overwhelming support since last night, and we’re going to be on a campaign that will provide us with resources to go toe-to-toe with the mayor,” White said.

For his part, Keller likened the start of the runoff election to “halftime” of this year’s election cycle, saying he was ready for a strong second-half showing.

“Now it’s a two-person race, and the differences could not be more clear,” Keller said Wednesday. “Albuquerque cannot afford a Trump-aligned mayor who would take us backward across the board.”

His campaign manager also said Keller would draw a “sharp contrast” with White on issues including the city’s stance on immigration.

The five-week sprint to the runoff election was triggered under the city’s election code when no candidate surpassed the 50% vote threshold. Two Albuquerque City Council races will also be decided in next month’s runoff election.

Despite a sluggish start to early voting, nearly 135,000 votes were cast in this year’s Albuquerque mayoral race, according to unofficial election results, or about 37.1% of registered voters in the city. That surpassed the 32% turnout mark from the city’s last mayoral election in 2021.

Runoff election dynamics

The outcome of next month’s mayoral runoff election could hinge on which candidate wins the support of voters who cast their ballot for someone else.

Alex Uballez, who came in third in the race with about 19% of votes cast, urged his supporters on election night not to support White but stopped short of endorsing Keller.

Uballez and the mayor spoke on election night but had not had a follow-up conversation as of late Wednesday, an Uballez campaign spokesman said.

Longtime New Mexico political observer Brian Sanderoff said an Uballez endorsement of Keller could be politically significant, as Uballez received as much as 60% of the votes cast in one University of New Mexico voting precinct.

While it’s unlikely that Uballez supporters would back White, Sanderoff said it’s not a certainty that they would support Keller in the runoff election.

“The question is, will they vote?” said Sanderoff, who is the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc.

If Keller is able to win the support of most Uballez voters, that could put him over the 50% threshold needed to claim victory next month, Sanderoff added.

After the two-term mayor spent much of the run-up to this week’s Election Day defending his record and accomplishments, Sanderoff said he expects Keller will take a more aggressive approach in the runoff election.

“We’re going to see a different political strategy from Keller, I’m sure, in the runoff,” Sanderoff said.

White seeking to maintain momentum

The path to a White victory in the runoff election could be trickier to map.

Even if White were to win over voters who backed one of the three other candidates running for mayor — Louie Sanchez, Mayling Armijo and Eddie Varela — and retain his own supporters, it would still leave him short of the 50% mark.

The former Bernalillo County sheriff and state Department of Public Safety chief said he planned to launch a new round of radio and television ads in the coming weeks.

“There was really no time to celebrate,” White said. “We enjoyed last night’s victory and we’ve been back at work since early this morning.”

He also said the higher-than-expected turnout could signal a desire for change among Albuquerque residents, while adding he was hopeful that turnout in the runoff election would also be strong.

“The future of our city is really on the ballot,” he said. “So we anticipate it will generate as much interest as it did yesterday.”