Voting turnout sluggish in Bernalillo County as Election Day approaches

SANTA FE — With just over one week until Election Day, early voting turnout rates in Albuquerque and other parts of New Mexico suggest many voters might be feeling less than enthusiastic about heading to the polls.

Only about 9.3% of Albuquerque’s more than 362,000 registered voters had cast ballots as of late Monday, according to the Bernalillo County Clerk’s Office. That figure includes both absentee and early voting.

With early voting set to end Saturday in advance of next week’s Election Day, the current trend suggests final turnout levels might fall short of the 32% mark from Albuquerque’s last mayoral election in 2021.

“Voting participation levels have been sluggish,” said Brian Sanderoff, a longtime New Mexico political observer who is the president of Albuquerque-based Research & Polling Inc.

While Albuquerque’s mayoral election is technically a nonpartisan race, registered Democrats have been voting at a slightly higher clip than Republicans since early voting began on Oct. 7.

Roughly 9.5% of registered Democrats in Bernalillo County had cast ballots entering Monday, compared to 8.4% of Republicans, according to state voting data analyzed by Research & Polling Inc. A smaller percentage of independent voters, or those declining to state a political affiliation, had cast a ballot.

Viewed another way, more than 55% of the Bernalillo County voters who had cast a ballot entering Monday were registered Democrats, even though Democrats make up only about 45% of all registered voters in the county.

Sanderoff said it’s relatively common for Democrats to vote at a higher rate than Republicans during the initial stages of an election. He also said more voters have voted before Election Day than on it during recent election cycles.

The turnout trends come after a Journal Poll last month found 37% of likely voters in Albuquerque voters were undecided about who they planned to vote for in the Nov. 4 local election.

Two-term incumbent Tim Keller was leading a field of six candidates in that poll, but Keller’s approval rating has steadily declined since he was first elected mayor in 2017.

The low turnout rates so far in this year’s local election are likely connected to the large number of undecided voters, Sanderoff said.

But he also said mayoral candidates Keller and Alex Uballez, the former U.S. attorney for New Mexico, will fare better than their rivals among Democratic voters due to their more progressive views.

With Democrats so far voting at a higher clip than Republicans in a city in which Democrats far outnumber GOP voters, the trend could make it difficult for a Republican candidate to post an upset victory even if this year’s Election Day turnout ends up narrowing — or eliminating — the current gap.

“We’re not seeing the Democratic vote depress” despite the large number of undecided voters, Sanderoff said.

Meanwhile, early voting turnout rates have also been sluggish in other parts of New Mexico for this year’s local election.

About 6.2% of registered voters in Santa Fe County had cast a ballot entering Monday, and roughly 4.8% of voters in Taos County. Voters in both Santa Fe and Taos are also choosing a new mayor and other local leaders during this year’s election cycle.

In Chaves County, where incumbent Roswell Mayor Tim Jennings is seeking to fend off two challengers to win reelection, roughly 4.7% of registered voters had cast a ballot, according to Secretary of State’s Office data.