Balloon Fiesta weather: What is the forecast?

Saturday is the first day of the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta, one of New Mexico’s largest events for tourists and locals alike.

But windy weather Saturday and rain showers next week could dampen the festivities and — worst-case scenario — prevent balloons from reaching the skies.

New Mexico is the hot air balloon capital of the world because of an atmospheric wind pattern, known as the “Albuquerque Box,” that results in favorable ballooning in the early morning, according to the National Weather Service of Albuquerque.

However, the Albuquerque Box is weather dependent, and forecasters say pilots and visitors will have to wait to see if the skies will bring warm winds or fall showers that can affect how balloons fly each day.

Weather forecast

At the start of Balloon Fiesta, visitors can expect a cold front that may also bring rain showers to northern New Mexico, said NWS meteorologist Nico Porcelli. The first day of the fiesta is not anticipated to be hampered by rain showers.

However, winds could keep the opening day mass ascension on the ground Saturday morning and even affect the Twilight Twinkle Glow in the evening. Wind gusts are forecast to be 24 mph on Saturday afternoon.

“It’ll actually get a little bit drier on Sunday... Heading into the beginning and middle part of the week, we are expecting some moisture to actually move back in over the region,” Porcelli said.

From Monday to Wednesday, Porcelli said visitors can expect between a quarter and a half-inch of rain. Tuesday has the highest potential for rain in the afternoon.

He said it’s the first time since 2022 that rain is in the forecast during fiesta and it’s possible that the extra moisture could impact the Albuquerque Box.

“There’s definitely a possibility that there could be some mornings where the circulation just doesn’t form,” Porcelli said. “Maybe the winds will be light enough for pilots to fly, but they wouldn’t be able to return with the box circulation.”

Temperatures throughout the week are expected to reach the 80s, with a low of around 52 degrees each day. According to Porcelli, 2024 was the warmest year ever recorded at Balloon Fiesta, with a high of 71 degrees.

The forecast past Wednesday, he said, remains more uncertain, but there is a possibility of more rain.

“But it’s also a possibility that we actually get a bit drier, so there’s still some uncertainty for the end of the week,” he said.

Porcelli said it is a toss-up on whether the weather will be dry or filled with moisture. He warned visitors to keep an eye on forecasts.