Around the Mountain: The seeding possibilities for each Mountain West team heading into final week

One week left and only two of 12 seeds in the March 11-14 Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas, Nevada, have been decided.

The final dozen games have plenty on the line beyond just league tournament seeding, but also a yet-to-be-determined league champion and postseason awards.

Here are the seeding possibilities (and probabilities in parentheses) for every Mountain West team, thanks to the computers at CBB Analytics.

Mountain West Tournament seed possibilities

(teams, current record and highest probability of the 1-12 seeding)

• Utah State (14-4): No. 1 (78.3%), No. 2 (17.4%), No. 3 (4.2%)
• San Diego State (13-5): No. 2 (68.2%), No. 3 (22.6%), No. 4 (6.7%), No. 1 (2.5%)
• New Mexico (13-5): No. 3 (63.9%), No. 1 (19.2%), No. 2 (14.3%), No. 4 (2.6%)
• Nevada (11-7): No. 4 (50.7%), No. 5 (40.3%), No. 6 (5.7%), No. 3 (2.6%), No. 7 (0.7%)
• Grand Canyon (11-7): No. 5 (45.8%), No. 4 (39.0%), No. 6 (7.7%), No. 3 (6.7%), No. 7 (0.7%), No. 8 (0.1%)
• Boise State (10-8): No. 6 (45.2%), No. 8 (36.1%), No. 7 (14.3%), No. 5 (4.3%), No. 4 (0.2%)
• Colorado State (11-7): No. 7 (44.8%), No. 6 (32.3%), No. 8 (15.9%), No. 5 (6.6%), No. 4 (0.4%)
• UNLV (10-8): No. 8 (48.0%), No. 7 (39.5%), No. 6 (9.1%), No. 5 (3.0%), No. 4 (0.4%)
• Wyoming (7-11): No. 9 (94.6%), No. 10 (5.4%)
• Fresno State (6-12): No. 10 (94.6%), No. 9 (5.4%)
• San Jose State (3-15): No. 11 (100%)
• Air Force (0-18): No. 12 (100%)

Tournament matchups by seed

• First round (Wednesday, March 11): 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, 8 vs. 9
• Quarterfinals (Thursday, March 12): 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10, 3 vs. 6/11, 4 vs. 5/12
• Semifinals (Friday, March 13): 1/8/9 vs. 4/5/12, 2/7/10 vs. 3/6/11
• Championship (Saturday, March 14): 1/4/5/8/9/12 vs. 2/3/6/7/10/11

Senior moment

Here's a sign of the times for ya.

As senior night ceremonies happen around the Mountain West this week, I figured I'd do some digging. Here's what I found.

There are ZERO players going through a senior night who started their college career and played four seasons at their current Mountain West school.

Boise State's R.J. Keene has been with the Broncos his entire college career, but has played only three seasons, redshirting one and missing another due to injury.

Plus/minus leaders

Through 18 of 20 league games played, there are three Utah State Aggies (M.J. Collins, Mason Falsoev and Drake Allen) and two UNM Lobos (Luke Haupt and Jake Hall) in the top five of the cumulative plus/minus stat (what a team's score does — positive or negative — while a player is on the court).

UNM also has six players in the top 14. Interestingly, SDSU has five in the top 20, with four of their top five in plus/minus being bench players.

Thanks to CBBAnalytics, here's the top 20 list:

February on fire

The Colorado State Rams went 7-0 in February. No other Mountain West team had fewer than two losses in the month.

CSU opened the month with a 3-8 league record, sitting alone in 10th place. They ended January losers in three straight games and on a six-game stretch with only a win against Air Force at home.

Today, they are 10-8 in league play and in a three-way tie for sixth place.

The last undefeated February in the Mountain West was in 2021 when both eventual league champion and NCAA Tournament No. 6 seed San Diego State went 6-0 in February and eventual NIT participant CSU went 5-0 in the month.

Freshmen on fire

This has been a banner year for Mountain West freshmen, with more than a handful playing critical roles and some who will get consideration for all-conference honors.

Here's the breakdown of how many freshmen made the league's postseason all-conference teams in the first 26 seasons of the Mountain West.

All-MW first team: Two

• 2012-13 — Anthony Bennett, UNLV
• 2009-10 — Kawhi Leonard, SDSU

All-MW second team: Five

• 2023-24 — JT Toppin, UNM
• 2018-19 — Neemias Queta, Utah State
• 2017-18 — Brandon McCoy, UNLV
• 2005-06 — Trent Plaisted, BYU
• 2003-04 — Andrew Bogut, Utah

All-MW third team: Nine

• 2020-21 — Marcus Williams, Wyoming
• 2019-20 — Isaiah Stevens, CSU
• 2015-16 — Cameron Oliver, Nevada; Jeremy Hemsley, SDSU
• 2014-15 — David Collette, Utah State
• 2009-10 — Tyler Haws, BYU; Desmar Jackson, Wyoming
• 2007-08 — Billy White, SDSU
• 2005-06 — Brandon Ewing, Wyoming

MW player awards

Here are the Player and Freshman of the Week awards as selected by the Mountain West league office:

• MW PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn, UNLV — There's no individual player less desirable to see across the court right now than DGL. The Illinois transfer scored 72 points in two games last week — 30 in a road loss at Grand Canyon and a career-high 42 in an overtime home win against in-state rival Nevada. He also had three steals in each game. It's his third POW of the season from the league.

• MW FRESHMAN OF THE WEEK: Naz Meyer, Wyoming — The guard averaged 13 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.5 assists in a split week — one win over Air Force, one loss to at Boise State. This was Meyer's fourth FOW from the league.

Weekly Nique

In an effort to correct the league's weekly awards when needed, or at least recognize a few more players around the conference, Colorado State fan and podcaster Steve Ivy and I hand out our own player awards each Monday. We call them the Weekly Nique, named after current NBA player Nique Clifford who somehow only won the league's award once in his Mountain West career at Colorado State.

• WEEKLY NIQUE POW: Vaughn Weems, Nevada — After not having scored more than 16 points in a Division I game before last week, the 6-foot-5 guard went for 20 and six rebounds in a big win over the UNM Lobos and followed that up with 30 points and nine rebounds in a road, overtime loss at UNLV. 
• WEEKLY NIQUE FOW: Tomislav Buljan, New Mexico — Buljan was on a team that went 1-1 last week, but so was the freshman who the league gave the award to. Buljan is 23 years old but he's been selected as the league's FOW before. Since team record and age wouldn't have been disqualifying, we're not really sure how a guy who had a 24-point, 18-rebound game in a win that has league championship implications (plus another game with seven points and 12 rebounds) doesn't win this award. Buljan is one of only five Division I players to post a 24/18 game this season. One of  those was in a double-overtime game, and the three others were against teams from the Colonial Athletic Association, the Summit League and the Patriot League.

Maybe more important was what Buljan did Sunday night, taking the UNM team managers out to dinner.

And here's a look at the Weekly Nique show this week with Steve and I:

Poll position

There were no Mountain West teams in Monday's latest Associated Press Top 25 poll, but Utah State was in its familiar "others receiving votes" spot listed after the poll.

• UTAH STATE: 10 points, seven spots outside of being ranked, appeared on seven of 61 voter ballots with a high vote of No. 24 on three ballots.

NET gains

Here are the KenPom.com rankings for all Mountain West teams as of Monday morning:

• 26 Utah State
• 42 San Diego State
• 46 New Mexico
• 60 Boise State
• 62 Grand Canyon
• 70 Nevada
• 86 Colorado State
• 101 Wyoming
• 120 UNLV
• 126 Fresno State
• 234 San Jose State
• 346 Air Force

Here are Monday's NET rankings for all Mountain West teams:

• 26 Utah State
• 42 New Mexico
• 44 San Diego State
• 59 Boise State
• 67 Nevada
• 75 Grand Canyon
• 88 Colorado State
• 100 Wyoming
• 126 UNLV
• 139 Fresno State
• 256 San JOse State
• 349 Air Force

Need a ride?

The crew at Amazing Jumps, Tents and Events are still taking reservations for their annual trip to Las Vegas for the Mountain West Tournament.

The trip package includes a ride to and from Las Vegas from Albuquerque, three nights hotel stay (Excaliber or Mandalay Bay), and shuttle to and from the Thomas & Mack Center for each Lobos game. Tickets to the games are not part of the package.

Prices are $295 for bus ride only; single person packages $625 (Excaliber)/$825 (Mandalay Bay); couples/shared room $990 (Excaliber)/$1,390 (Mandalay Bay).

Call (505) 974-0215 for information or booking.

My five

It's the final week of the regular season and every game has at least some tournament seeding implications. I'll be interested in all 12 remaining games, but for the sake of this list, here are the five Mountain West games I'm most looking forward to this week:

• San Diego State at Boise State: Tuesday, 6 p.m. PT/7 p.m. MT (CBS Sports Network) — I picked this in the group of five games to watch this week over Saturday's Boise State at CSU game because this has a team still in the league title hunt and two teams that on Jan. 3 may have given us the Mountain West game of the year in that epic 110-107 SDSU triple overtime win in Viejas Arena. Boise State at home trying to position itself for a run at postseason play against an SDSU team that has lost three of its last four games makes for some serious intrigue.
• Utah State at UNLV: Tuesday, 8 p.m. PT/9 p.m. MT (CBS Sports Network) — Somehow, UNLV beat the Aggies by 10 in Logan in January. Now, not only are the Aggies trying to atone for that loss, but they have league championship and NCAA Tournament seeding implications on the line. Meanwhile, the hottest player in the league down the stretch is Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn. Utah State will have something ready for him. Will it be enough after he scored 72 points over two games last week?
• Colorado State at New Mexico: Wednesday, 7 p.m. PT/8 p.m. MT (CBS Sports Network) — The hottest team in the league (CSU has won seven in a row) heads to the Pit where the Lobos play their final game of the season with a league championship still in play. This is the last regular season MW game for two of the longest standing conference foes out west across multiple leagues.
• UNLV at San Diego State: Friday, 7 p.m. MT/8 p.m. MT (CBS Sports Network) — The Aztecs can't afford another home loss, especially to a UNLV team that is far more dangerous than their 100-plus NET and computer metrics would suggest. UNLV wouldn't mind being an annoying thorn in the side of the Aztecs. This is the final MW regular season game for the most decorated team in the conference's 27-year existence.
• New Mexico at Utah State: Saturday, 1 p.m. PT/2 p.m. MT (TheMW) — A league championship could be determined in front of the Hurd — the season winner for best student section. That UNM is not merely entering the final week as a hopeful spoiler, but as a hopeful champion is absurd given where things stood entering the season (not one player or staff member returning). That Utah State, which beat UNM by 20 in the Pit in February, is in a title hunt at the end is anything but surprising, but nonetheless impressive for the program that has basically been the best in the league for several years.

Reach Geoff Grammer at ggrammer@abqjournal.com or follow him on Twitter (X) @GeoffGrammer.