Experts say it won’t snow in Albuquerque, other parts of New Mexico may get a dusting

Those hoping for some snow in the Albuquerque area this weekend might have to pray for a white Christmas instead — but forecasters say northern New Mexicans may get a dusting.

While earlier forecast models indicated there was the possibility for some flakes around the state’s largest city, it’s more likely areas like Farmington, Gallup and the northern mountains will see snow, according to Michael Anand, a meteorologist with the Albuquerque office of the National Weather Service.

Gallup is looking at low temperatures ranging from 27 to 35 degrees Friday through Sunday with precipitation percentages of 30% to 40%. While there’s a chance of precipitation in Farmington into the weekend, rain is more likely with lows forecast to stay in the 40s.

Conditions in the Duke City will be much more mild.

“Now with this northern and western track, we’re looking at the warmer and drier conditions (in Albuquerque),” Anand said. “Friday is looking dry now. Most of Saturday, and honestly, all of Saturday, is looking dry at the moment.”

Albuquerque’s forecast for the weekend shows there is a 20% to 30% chance of precipitation. None of the projected low temperatures fall below 32 degrees — the temperature often required for snow.

“There’s new model data suggesting this thing’s going to be, I don’t want to say a bust yet, but it’s looking a lot less impressive for the weekend,” Byron Morton, chief meteorologist for Journal partner KOAT-TV, said, referring to earlier models showing more potential for snow.

Those now-withering weather models were latched onto by local social media profiles last week and garnered more than 8,000 likes and 4,000 shares, all banking on the hope of snow in Albuquerque.

“That’s why you trust meteorologists,” Morton said. “If you don’t have a meteorologist that is evaluating the models and with experience that has made the forecast in that area for decades — like we have — then it’s just a shot in the dark.”

He added that it was too early at the time to project an accurate forecast for the weekend.

“We’ve got really good accuracy, up to 48 hours out. Beyond 48 hours, it drops off significantly,” Morton said. “We did know that there would be a pattern change well in advance.”

Joseph Galewsky, professor and chair of the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the University of New Mexico, echoed the need for expertise to be at the center of forecasts.

Galewsky added that is an impressive scientific feat to forecast the weather, and meteorologists are often as accurate as they possibly can be.

“We do an amazing job, and — we all love snow — but the public tends to see that, and then when the forecast doesn’t come together, and it doesn’t actually snow, people start to think that weather forecasting doesn’t work very well,” he said. “But it’s a really amazing triumph of science and computers and personnel to get these forecasts, so don’t be too disappointed, and hopefully we’ll get some snow later in the season.”