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Is National Weather Service New Mexico prepared for a Texas-level emergency?
Over the holiday weekend, New Mexico’s neighboring state endured a catastrophic flood that claimed the lives of 90 people, with several others still missing.
Many — including Texas officials — are questioning the National Weather Service about whether the organization was truly prepared and if cuts from the Trump administration affected the response to the floods.
But is the New Mexican National Weather Service prepared for a weather emergency like the floods in Texas?
Scott Overpeck, a warning coordination meteorologist with the NWS in Albuquerque, is responsible for ensuring effective communication of weather warnings to the public. His role also involves direct coordination with local officials and agencies.
Overpeck said the Albuquerque office is staffed around the clock, with the ability to call in additional personnel ahead of major weather events.
"We work rotating shifts 24/7, so there's always somebody available," Overpeck said. "We have the capability, in addition to having our normal staffing profiles, we can bring in people and plan for big events so we have people available to handle that."
The Trump administration has cut down NWS staffing by at least 20%, the Associated Press reported, leaving nearly 600 NWS positions vacant.
These cuts have impacted daily weather balloon launches — a key tool for accurate forecasting — curtailed research efforts and reduced the number of available forecasters.
Trump said that NWS cuts did not hinder weather forecasting and said the Texas flood was "a thing that happened in seconds. No one expected it. Nobody saw it.”
Overpeck would not say if the New Mexico NWS branch was affected by staffing cuts or if it was fully staffed.
Ruidoso experienced a flash flood that forced 8,000 people to evacuate from their homes shortly after a fire that devastated the community last summer. Since then, Ruidso has experienced additional floods, particularly in burn scar areas where the ground is less absorbent and more prone to runoff.
Kerry Gladden, the village of Ruidoso's public information officer, said the city was notified by NWS about the potential of floods 24 hours before they happened. The city has an internal communication system with NWS that updates on an hourly basis, with additional updates if the city is in a weather emergency.
"We have a very close working relationship with the NWS out of both El Paso and Albuquerque," Gladden wrote in a statement to the Journal. "We received the alerts yesterday in a very timely manner as we always do."
Gladden said the rain estimates were "100% accurate" and that NWS and Ruidoso knew there was a potential for flooding because of burn scars.
There are three types of flash flood warnings, Overpeck said. For each type of warning, NWS meteorologists analyze weather data and collectively determine the type and frequency of the warnings.
“Once we issue the warning, it gets sent out in a matter of a few seconds,” he said. “There isn't really a whole lot of delay in these warnings.”
The first tier is a basic warning for potential flooding that could damage property. The second, a more serious “upgraded warning,” will trigger emergency alerts on cell phones and notify residents in the affected area to seek higher ground immediately.
“This is the one that will make your phone alert and give you some information on where the flooding is,” he said. “If you get that, it means you are in the area and need to get to higher ground.”
The final warning means the situation has turned urgent, Overpeck said.
“We don't like to do that as much, because it is really that life-threatening situation where there is a flash flood emergency, there are high water rescues, there's water getting into structures, and there are lots of widespread road closures,” he said.
Overpeck said NWS meteorologists can also modify, add or issue new warnings for different areas as weather threats move. The department also decides on what areas need weather warnings.
"Alerts are only as good as the actions taken of getting the message out to the community and its residents after the alerts are received by state and local officials," Gladden said.
Some communities in New Mexico have outdoor sirens to alert residents about emergencies, but Overpeck said the NWS does not have control over those or evacuation orders. Ruidoso is one of the cities that has an outdoor warning system, and Gladden said it will be upgraded before the end of the year.
It is up to city or county officials to make those decisions, but NWS does try to keep in contact with cities affected by weather events, Overpeck said.