Journal Poll: 4 in 10 voters say they are worse off than before pandemic

Most New Mexicans don’t have a favorable view of the state’s economy, rating it as fair or poor.

A majority also say they are worse off financially or about the same as before the COVID-19 pandemic.

That’s according to a new Journal poll conducted by Research & Polling Inc., which asked a group of likely voters two questions on the economy: How would you rate the conditions of New Mexico’s economy, and separately, how would you rate your finances compared to just a few years ago before the pandemic?

Economic conditions

According to the poll, 40% of likely voters rated economic conditions as fair, while another 38% rated the economy as poor. Another 19% rated economic conditions as good, 1% responded excellent, and 2% either didn’t know or wouldn’t say.

Among those in eastern New Mexico, 50% rated the state’s economy as poor, while 27% in north central New Mexico — think Santa Fe and Taos — rated it the same.

Across party lines, Republicans (61%) are much more likely to have rated New Mexico’s economy as poor compared to Democrats (25%).

On the flip side, Democrats (43%) and independent/unaffiliated voters (50%) were more likely to rate the economy as fair; those same groups were also more likely to rate the economy as good — with 28% of Democrats and 18% of independent voters rating it that way.

“Political party is a very big predictor of assessment of the economic conditions today in New Mexico,” said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc.

Sanderoff said some likely voters, particularly Democrats, who rate the economy as good or fair may see improving economic conditions with inflation cooling significantly over the last few months.

The overall Consumer Price Index, or CPI, a measure of inflation, climbed 2.5% in August over the past year, cooler than July’s 2.9% and much better than the 9.1% measure in 2022.

Educational attainment levels are also a big predictor of the assessment of economic conditions. Those with a college degree are much less likely to rate economic conditions poorly, Sanderoff said.

There aren’t “tremendously big differences,” Sanderoff said, when it comes to gender, with 42% of males and 37% of women rating the economy as fair, and another 36% of males and 41% of females rating the economy as poor.

Financial situation

Asked if they are financially better off, worse off or about the same compared to a few years ago, 38% of those surveyed said worse off followed by 37% who said about the same. Twenty-four percent of likely voters said they are better off.

Despite increases in wages and a relatively low unemployment rate, Sanderoff said he suspects that few voters rate the economy as excellent or good due to the cost of living and cost of housing, which have taken on sharp increases post-COVID.

In Albuquerque, for instance, the median sales price for a single-family detached home — the most common type in the area — was $361,000, according to the Greater Albuquerque Association of Realtors. That’s up from $226,000 in August 2019.

“Concerns about inflation, I think, are impacting people’s assessment of the economic conditions,” Sanderoff said.

Likely voters’ views on the state’s economic conditions, Sanderoff said, are partly reflected in how people perceive their finances.

Sixty-two percent of both Republicans and self-reported conservatives said they are worse off compared to 23% of Democrats and 19% of liberals. And 32% of Democrats and 38% of liberals are more likely to say they are better off.

Roughly 44% of Democrats said they are financially about the same, compared to 25% of Republicans.

In eastern New Mexico, where more Republicans and conservatives tend to live, 58% said they are worse off compared to 34% in the Albuquerque metro.

Those 18-34 years of age (36%) and 35-49 years of age (32%) were also more likely to say they are better off than before COVID compared to those between the ages of 50-64 (18%) and 65-older (16%).

Sanderoff said, “Younger people are still ascending in their positions at work (and) they’re still getting promotions above and beyond salary increases.”

“And then as you get older — retirement years or beginning to plateau at work — you’re seeing less wage increases,” Sanderoff said. “People who are retired are living on fixed incomes, and therefore are more susceptible to the ill effects of inflation.”

Methodology

The Journal poll is based on a statewide random sample of 532 voters who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by age, education level, and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.

The poll was conducted from Sept. 6 through Sept. 13, excluding the evening of Sept. 10 (due to the presidential debate). The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.

Both cellphone numbers (88%) and landlines (12%) of likely general election voters were used.