Journal Poll: Vasquez has slim lead over Herrell in congressional race

Gabe Vasquez and Yvette Herrell both want a second chance to represent New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. According to a new Journal Poll, Democratic incumbent Vasquez has a slim lead in the race.

Vasquez leads by 4 points with support from 49% of likely voters surveyed, while Republican challenger Herrell is close behind with 45% of voter support. The lead is within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The poll found 5% of voters surveyed were undecided.

The district has flipped from red to blue to red to blue over the last decade. In 2021, District 2 was redrawn. Redistricting broke up the conservative stronghold of Eddy, Lea and Chaves counties. The new boundary lines withstood a GOP court challenge.

A former Las Cruces city councilor, Vasquez won his seat in Congress by approximately 1,300 votes in 2022, unseating Herrell, a former state legislator from Alamogordo. Two years later, Herrell is trying to reclaim it.

“It’s a competitive district with two strong candidates who are vying in one of the most hotly contested races in the nation,” said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling, which conducted the poll. “Lots of money’s being spent by the individual campaigns, as well as by political action committees from both the Democrat and Republican sides, from liberal and conservative special interest groups.”

The race is easily the most expensive of the three U.S. House races in the state. Herrell has raised $3.7 million and has $1.1 million cash on hand, while Vasquez has raised $6.1 million and has $1.8 million cash on hand, according to the Federal Election Commission.

The district is geographically diverse, encompassing most of southern New Mexico, including parts of the oil patch in Lea and Eddy counties and all of Las Cruces, then reaching north all the way into Albuquerque’s South Valley and West Side. Herrell will likely do well in the eastern parts of the district, while Vasquez will likely do well in the Las Cruces and Albuquerque areas, Sanderoff said.

“It’s definitely a race that’s being watched nationally, since the balance of power in the U.S. House could ultimately be determined by a handful of districts, including this one,” Sanderoff said.

Both campaigns have attracted the support of congressional leaders.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy helped Herrell launch her campaign last year. Speaker Mike Johnson came to Las Cruces for Herrell in August and is scheduled to visit Carlsbad for a Herrell campaign event Wednesday.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries came to Albuquerque in early October at Vasquez’s invitation, where he attended events to promote all three Democratic congressional representatives in their reelection campaigns.

Abortion access has been a common theme in campaign ads this election cycle. Vasquez has repeatedly hammered Herrell over her record on abortion in campaign ads and at rallies. Herrell released a new television ad to clarify her stance on abortion last week.

The Journal poll found that Vasquez had a 14-point lead among women voters, with 53% of support among women compared to 39% support for Herrell. Meanwhile, Herrell had a slight edge with male voters, with 50% support among that group compared to 46% support among men for Vasquez.

More independents undecided

In the Journal poll, party affiliation was unsurprisingly the biggest predictor of candidate preference. While Vasquez had strong support among Democratic voters, with 84% support among that group, Herrell had support among nearly all Republican voters surveyed, with 91% support.

However, more independent or decline to state voters supported Vasquez as well. He had 51% of support among those voters, while Herrell had 32%.

Unlike the Republican and Democratic voters surveyed, the independent voters had more people still on the fence, with 15% of independent voters undecided.

Education and ethnicity

In a pattern similar to that found in other New Mexico and national races this election year, the Democratic candidate had more support among voters with more educational attainment.

Among voters with some college or with a high school diploma or less education, the race is nearly deadlocked. But Vasquez has a clear lead among voters with a four-year college degree or graduate degree. Herrell has a 3-point lead among voters with a high school diploma or less education, with 50% of support among this group. Vasquez has a 29-point lead among voters with a graduate degree with 64% support.

In 2022 Journal polling during the pair’s first matchup, Vasquez had a large lead among Hispanic voters in the district, with support of 61% of voters in that demographic. Support among that demographic group is not as strong for Vasquez this election cycle, according to the new poll. Vasquez had support from 51% of Hispanic voters surveyed, while Herrell had 40% support among that group.

“The Hispanic vote is not coalescing among the Democrats in the same manner as it has in prior years,” Sanderoff said. “Many Hispanic voters are considering Republican candidates such as Yvette Herrell, such as Donald Trump.”

Methodology

The Journal Poll is based on a random sample of 414 voters in the 2nd Congressional District who cast ballots in the 2020 and/or 2022 general election, and a sample of adults who registered to vote since December 2022 and who said they are likely to vote in the upcoming election.

The sample was stratified by race and county and weighted by education level and party affiliation based on traditional voting patterns in New Mexico general elections, to ensure a more representative sample.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 10 through Oct. 18, excluding the late afternoon of Oct. 14 (due to the U.S. Senate debate). The voter sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The margin of error grows for subsamples.

All interviews were conducted by live, professional interviewers, based in Albuquerque, with multiple callbacks to households that did not initially answer the phone.

Both cellphone numbers (88%) and landlines (12%) of likely general election voters were used.