National Weather Service predicts slightly drier, warmer winter in New Mexico

As a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Albuquerque, Matt DeMaria’s job — and one of his passions — is helping people make decisions based on the most accurate weather data he and his colleagues can provide.

But as they pore over winter forecasting models and maps each fall, he can’t help but hope they call for snow.

“I grew up in Georgia, and we don’t get a lot of snow there,” he told the Journal on Tuesday, “so whenever it did snow, it was always a fun time. I like winter weather, personally.”

Unfortunately for DeMaria and other New Mexicans who prefer white winters to dry ones, the forecast calls for higher chances of slightly below normal precipitation and warmer temperatures over most of the state from December through March.

“There’s just a slight lean toward the state being drier than average,” he said. “But it definitely doesn’t mean we can’t have periods in the winter where we have big storms.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, of which the NWS is a part, released the annual report from its Climate Prediction Center this week. DeMaria didn’t work on the report, but a colleague, Brian Guyer of the NOAA, helped compile this year’s data.

To create their detailed forecast, meteorologists rely on a variety of tools to collect weather information from across the country. The National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, for example, uses ground-based and airborne devices as well as satellites to generate a map predicting season snowfall based on historical measurements.

If the 2025-26 forecasts bear out, the upcoming winter season is likely to be similar to last year’s, with lower than average snowfall in the Land of Enchantment and other parts of the southwestern U.S.

DeMaria said that’s partly due to the continued affects of what he described as a “weak La Niña,” a climate pattern set off when water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is cooler-than-average.

In La Niña years, northern regions like the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes tend to have more winter storms, whereas southern areas, including New Mexico, are more prone toward greater aridity and elevated risk of wildfire.

The forecast varies greatly based on the area of the state in question.

“About 10% of the state is in an extreme drought,” DeMaria said. “We’re in severe drought for a lot of west-central and central New Mexico, including in the Albuquerque area. And then once you’re in northeastern New Mexico, there’s no drought at all. Soil moisture is doing well — they had a really great spring and summer. And then most of southern New Mexico is severe to extreme drought.”

Similarly, most New Mexicans know that mountainous areas like the Sangre de Cristos in north-central New Mexico are climatologically favored to receive greater precipitation and lower average temperatures than lower elevation areas, such as Las Cruces.

Enchanted Circle communities near Taos, including Red River, Angel Fire and Taos Ski Valley, have already seen their first fall freezes and dusting of snow in recent weeks and area resorts will soon begin snowmaking operations in anticipation of the upcoming ski and snowboard season.

The NWS also provided a weather briefing on Monday, telling residents in most parts of the state, including points farther south such as Roswell and Ruidoso, to expect temperatures to dip below freezing Wednesday night.

Residents across the state are being advised to bring pets indoors, leave faucets dripping, prop open kitchen and bathroom cupboards and protect fall crops from the chill.

Despite the mild winter the models predict, DeMaria said there can always be surprises, and that New Mexicans should always stay on their toes, especially when traveling in winter.

“We were also in a La Niña last year, and then we had that massive winter storm — a nearly historical storm — last November, and then another in May,” he said. “So it doesn’t mean you can’t have a really big storm in a year that ends up being below average for most areas.”