New Mexico State astronomer, students develop method of predicting solar flares

LAS CRUCES — The eerie yet beautiful auroras that delivered pink and green nighttime skies across New Mexico and much of the U.S. this month are the result of geomagnetic storms caused by solar activity.

The light shows result from coronal mass ejections, eruptions of plasma and magnetic energy that send charged particles toward Earth, where they mingle with atmospheric gases and produce lights of varying colors depending on one’s position on the planet surface.

The sun frequently belches energy, particles and flares that can interfere with Earth’s magnetic field and disrupt communications, confuse or disable GPS technology and affect satellites or spacecraft, with unpredictable and overlapping results.

A severe solar storm on May 10, 2024, hit Earth smack in the middle of planting season, causing havoc for farms dependent on GPS-guided tractors that danced chaotically for up to two days, damaging crops and causing financial losses . Utility connections overheated and tripped. The atmosphere expanded from high upper-layer temperatures, affecting satellites.

Our world is increasingly reliant on digital technology for everyday life, industry and basic essentials such as food and clean water; and industry leaders are building even more capacity for expanded applications of AI, satellite capability, point-to-point space travel and even sending human crews to Mars.

As we move further in that direction, we are also increasing our vulnerability to space weather, including a series of solar storms this month that have affected our planet. With that in mind, a team of researchers at New Mexico State University is developing a method of predicting geomagnetic storms.

“A lot of these space companies are not investing enough in understanding the space weather,” Juie Shetye, a professor of astronomy at NMSU and the science lead for the university’s Sunspot Solar Observatory, said in an interview.

As for impacts on Earth, Shetye and her team have developed a model they say can predict major solar flares quickly enough to provide warnings months ahead of impact, buying time to mitigate the worst impacts of geomagnetic storms. It would be a huge advance on existing models that can provide a few days’ or even just a few hours’ notice, the university said.

Shetye is co-author, with Mausumi Dikpati of the High Altitude Observatory of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, of a new paper outlining a method of forecasting the likelihood of disruptive flares.

The paper, “Analysis of Short-term Solar Activity Variability and Estimating the Timings of the Next Enhanced Bursts,” was published in the Astrophysical Journal last month.

Shetye said the method involves statistical analysis based on data compiled from sunspot observations extending back to 1878 and used to develop a machine learning algorithm to analyze the data, identify patterns and assist humans in forecasting the likelihood of predicting solar eruptions in enough time, perhaps eight months to a year ahead of impact, for governments and businesses to respond.

She envisioned refining predictive models to the point of delivering real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar flare activity as part of an early warning system. Her research team includes graduate and undergraduate students at NMSU.

The recent frequency of geomagnetic storms reflects the sun’s 11-year natural cycle from low to high magnetic activity as its poles switch positions. Scientists from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel said last month that the sun is now in its solar maximum period, which could continue for another year.

November has been eventful, with NASA reporting the year’s strongest geomagnetic storm and at least six X-class solar flares, the most powerful rating for the events. A coronal mass ejection on Nov. 11 caused brief radio blackouts in parts of Africa and Europe.

Shetye said it has provided an opportunity to watch how well her team’s model is doing with short-term predictions of solar behavior based on sunspot activity.

“It seems to be working,” she said. “It did predict that the (sun’s) Northern Hemisphere would pick up, and that is what happened — that’s where the flares came from.”