Second Trump term big topic during U.S.-Mexico relations discussion

The reelection of Donald Trump and what his second presidential term could mean for U.S.-Mexico relations loomed large during a panel discussion between diplomats and academics on Monday at the National Hispanic Cultural Center in Albuquerque.

The discussion was cosponsored by the venue, the University of New Mexico’s Latin American and Iberian Institute and the Mexican consulate.

Patricia Pinzón Sánchez, Consul of Mexico in Albuquerque, moderated a discussion between three panelists, each who gave his own presentation before taking questions from her and the audience. Two of the panelists were Jorge Schiavon and Abelardo Rodríguez Sumano, both professors at the Universidad Iberoamericana, a private Catholic institution in Mexico City. The third, Rafael Velázquez, is a professor hailing from Autonomous University of Baja California.

“For its nature and complexity, this is one of the most challenging relations worldwide,” Sánchez said during her remarks to kick off the discussion.

Their discussion came as the two countries recently elected new leaders. Trump was reelected as U.S. president on Nov. 5 and will become the first nonconsecutive two-term president since Grover Cleveland. Claudia Sheinbaum became Mexico’s first female president and took office on Oct. 1. In a statement following Trump’s victory, Sheinbaum said there would be “good relations” between the two countries, while asking Trump for dialogue and respect for sovereignty.

Trump, who has demonized immigrants since he launched his first campaign for president in 2016, has previously has pledged to secure the southern U.S. border and asked Mexico to pay for a wall. In a second administration, he has pledged to involve the military in a mass deportation campaign of illegal immigrants.

On Monday, Velázquez outlined possible scenarios of the relationship that could play out between Mexico and the U.S. in a second Trump administration. But Velázquez was careful to preface his presentation by saying, “We’re not going to tell you (what’s going to happen) because it’s very difficult to predict.”

One scenario involves Trump putting pressure on Sheinbaum and seeing her cooperate on issues of on migration, border security and economic interdependence,{/span} Velázquez said. There could be deportations of Mexican immigrants, but “not in huge numbers,” he said. Some changes could be made to the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement in 2020.

A disruptive scenario between the two countries could involve more conflict in relations, with the Steinbaum administration not willing to cooperate with Trump, Velázquez said. Deportation of Mexican immigrants living in the U.S. could come in “huge numbers” and the USMC agreement could be canceled outright, he said.

But there could be an alternative scenario in which relations involve “a mix” of the two other scenarios, Velázquez said.

Sumano superimposed a “Make America Great Again” ballcap that was a signature of the Trump campaign on an informational slide during his presentation, but he could hardly be mistaken as a supporter during his remarks. He spoke of challenges Mexico could face in dealing with Trump, including not just his “America First” rhetoric, but a tariff plan to drive up the price of imports to make American goods more appealing, as well as the potential of a “military conflict with Mexico.”

Schiavon put Mexico’s relationship with the U.S. into perspective. Twenty-six Mexican consulates are in the four border states. The U.S. is Mexico’s biggest trading partner. Thirty-eight million people of Mexican origin live in the U.S.

Schiavon also talked about Trump’s agenda, noting he is going to be a “very powerful” president having won the Electoral College, the popular vote, both houses of Congress and a majority of conservative justices in the U.S. Supreme Court.

When Sánchez asked the panel where U.S.-Mexico relations stand with the election of Trump, Schiavon said he believes there is a “high level” of distrust between Mexico and the U.S.

“So we do have to work at that,” Schiavon said.

Zachary Quintero, executive director of the National Hispanic Cultural Center, closed out the panel discussion, by saying, “What an exciting talk. We do live in exciting times.”