The Rio Grande runs dry in Albuquerque. Here's why.

In Albuquerque, much of the Rio Grande was a cracked riverbed Monday, a result of a record dry winter and legal restrictions on storing Rio Grande water.

The Rio Grande is fed primarily by snowfall in Colorado and northern New Mexico. When the snow melts in the spring, it runs into the river. As weather patterns change with less snow predicted in winters and the possibility of more extreme monsoon events in the summers, a dry river in the Albuquerque metro area might become a more common sight.

“When there’s no water in the river, and there’s not enough water to give water to all of these uses, life’s a lot harder,” said Jason Casuga, Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District CEO.

While the Rio Grande is dry for long stretches of the year south of Albuquerque, the river has rarely run dry in the Albuquerque metro area in recent decades. In 2022, the river ran dry for a 5-mile stretch in Albuquerque for the first time in 40 years, thanks to a winter of underwhelming snowfall and a lack of stored river water. The story this year is similar: not enough snow and little stored water to supplement the river’s flows.

“In general, we are seeing more dry years,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Matt DeMaria. “We’re seeing more variable years. So we’re kind of swinging back and forth between these very wet years and very dry years. And that is what’s unusual. With climate change, we’re not seeing as many near-normal years as we used to.”

Because of rising temperatures and climate change, New Mexico is expected to become more arid with more variation in weather over the coming decades, according to a 2022 report from New Mexico Tech. Rio Grande flows north of the Elephant Butte Reservoir are predicted to decrease 25% by 2072, according to the report.

In December through April, southern Colorado and northern New Mexico had record dry weather or snowfall in the bottom 10th percentile, according to DeMaria.

“We did have that mid-May snowstorm, which brought up to 3 feet or so in the northern mountains, which helped a little bit. But unfortunately, did not do a lot to help out from the extremely dry winter,” DeMaria said.

South of Socorro, river drying began in mid-April, according to the Bureau of Reclamation, and there were 20 miles dry south of Socorro and north of Elephant Butte as of early July.

Casuga believes that how often the river runs dry in the Albuquerque area will depend in part on choices the state makes about storing and conserving water.

“The river’s life. That’s why communities developed around here, and I think that’s something that we have to wrestle with,” Casuga said. “We need water to sustain our communities. But a lot of why people live here and enjoy living in this area is because of what the Rio Grande is, the habitat it creates, and the history on it of both agriculture and an ecology.”

As snow melts in the mountains, New Mexico’s water infrastructure is designed to capture and distribute spring run-off to communities and farmers along the Rio Grande. To keep water flowing regularly, several government agencies work together to store water in dams. When there is excess spring run-off, it can be stored and released later in the summer to keep the river flowing and water moving to New Mexico farms. When there isn’t much snow melt, there’s less water in the river to store or send downstream.

New Mexico is also bound by a legal agreement: the Rio Grande Compact, which determines how the river’s water is divided between Colorado, New Mexico and Texas. The amount of water each state gets varies depending on how much water is in the system in a given year. In wetter years, New Mexico is obligated to send a higher percentage of water down river. In drier years, New Mexico is obligated to send a lower percentage of water down river.

At present, New Mexico owes water under the Compact to Texas, to the tune of 125,000 acre feet, a debt that accumulated over several previous years. The water debt means New Mexico is not allowed to store any Rio Grande water.

“The drought is a big deal. But when you couple the drought with not having access to your greatest water management tool, which is being able to store water, that just makes the problem even worse. And most New Mexicans are just not used to that,” Casuga said.

New Mexico also gets some water from a different river system through the San Juan-Chama project. Water managers already released the San Juan-Chama water to keep the river flowing in June and early July. Now, there is no more stored water the state is allowed to send down.

Casuga would like to see the state reimagine how it manages water, with a new focus on capturing rainwater and preparing for floods.

“How do they help communities invest in infrastructure to route water that we get from rain and arroyos running back to the rivers and prevent those waters from damaging communities?” Casuga said.

In the near-term, New Mexico can expect more rainfall in the coming week. The end of July through the middle of August is peak monsoon season, DeMaria said, which means it’s also peak flash flood season. He encourages hikers, bikers or people enjoying a lake visit to check the weather before they go.

“We can get a lot of flash flooding this time of year, but there’s also concerns such as strong winds and hail and lightning too, which can be kind of a sneaky hazard as well,” DeMaria said.