EDITORIAL: Heinrich's Puerto Rican statehood bill could cost NM 1 of its 3 US House seats

Sometimes it’s better not to fully vet a bill, at least not publicly.

Introducing legislation at a news conference surrounded by like-minded politicians without getting into the weeds gives bill proponents the benefit of the initiative, without its baggage.

Such is the case with U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich’s Puerto Rican statehood initiative, which could end up costing his own state a presidential elector, and thus a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

To begin with, New Mexico has a population problem after decades of double-digit growth.

New Mexico’s population growth of 2.8% between the 2010 and 2020 censuses was by far our weakest growth since statehood, well below our growth of 13.2% between 2000 and 2010, and by even 20.1% in the 1990s.

Our state gained just 58,000 people between 2010 and 2020, and much of that was in the Permian Basin, where an oil boom has brought workers to southeastern New Mexico and wealth and prosperity to the state. The combined population growth in Eddy and Lea counties outpaced the 2.1% growth of Bernalillo County from 2010 to 2020.

New Mexico’s growth rate between 2010 and 2020 trailed that of every other Western state except Wyoming, and was less than half the national average.

Texas grew by 15.9%, and gained two U.S. House seats, following the 2020 census. Colorado grew by 14.8%, and gained one House seat. Arizona grew by 11.9% and Utah grew by 18.4%, the fastest-rate in the nation. What are those states doing right that we aren’t?

We believe our sluggish population growth is a direct consequence of our state’s anti-business, anti-development, anti-drilling, anti-mining and anti-free market ethos, but that’s another editorial.

And, our population is aging, rapidly, with fewer and fewer young people to run the show in the future and pay the taxes. State legislative analysts said our under-18 population shrank by 8% between 2010 and 2020.

“People will follow the jobs,” prominent and reliably correct pollster Brian Sanderoff told the Journal after 2020 census numbers were released in April 2021.

New Mexico kept its three representatives in the U.S. House after the 2020 census, although the warning signs of losing representation on Capitol Hill are on the wall.

With a population of just over 2.1 million, and target congressional district sizes of 761,169 people per district across the nation following the 2020 census, we’re already below the population needed for three full congressional districts, which are rounded up or down a seat per state.

With sluggish growth, New Mexico is at risk of losing one of its five presidential and vice presidential electors after the 2030 census, and thus a U.S. House seat.

Sen. Heinrich’s Puerto Rican statehood initiative could virtually assure it.

Heinrich is the Senate’s lead sponsor of the Puerto Rico Status Act, which lays out a process for Puerto Rico to determine the island’s political status. If enacted, citizens of Puerto Rico would vote and choose between statehood, independence or sovereignty in free association with the United States.

If Puerto Rican voters choose statehood, the island would be granted two U.S. senators and, with a population of 3.2 million, would be assured of at least four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Puerto Rico is currently a U.S. territory and elects a resident commissioner every four years, who serves with five other delegates in the U.S. House. Delegates may vote on committees, but cannot vote on bills on the House floor along with the House’s 435 full members.

Heinrich’s legislation would authorize Puerto Rico to elect two U.S. senators and “the same number of Representatives as the State whose most recent census population was closest to, but less than, that of Puerto Rico in the first election of Representatives and subsequent elections until the next census-based reapportionment cycle,” states a section-by-section explanation of the bill from Heinrich’s office. “The addition of these Representatives will temporarily increase the membership of the House of Representatives prescribed by law. The State of Puerto Rico will subsequently be entitled to the number of Representatives provided for by applicable law based on the next reapportionment.”

In layman’s terms, Puerto Rico would promptly be granted at least four U.S. House seats, temporarily increasing House membership from 435 to 439.

But pursuant to the federal Reapportionment Act of 1929, which caps the number of House representatives at 435, House membership would revert to 435 representatives after the 2030 census, just as it reverted from 437 to 435 members after the 1960 census, shortly after Alaska and Hawaii were each given an additional House seat upon statehood in 1959.

That means Puerto Rico’s four House members, and four of its presidential electors, would come from other states after the 2030 census, just as Alaska’s and Hawaii’s House members came from other states after the 1960 census.

And New Mexico is ripe to give one up.

Statehood for Puerto Rico after more than a century of territorial status following the Spanish-American war may make sense. But it doesn’t make sense for a senator from a small-population state to be leading the charge that could diminish his own state’s influence in Washington, D.C.

If Puerto Rico becomes a state, it would immediately have more representatives in the U.S. House than New Mexico (four to our three) and more presidential electors (six to our five).

How does that benefit New Mexico?

A Puerto Rican statehood initiative is indeed a bold move for a senator representing New Mexico; perhaps even foolhardy for someone who was born in Nevada, who grew up in Missouri and who has been a resident of Maryland for much of his two terms in the U.S. Senate, and who is up for reelection this year.

One wouldn’t think diminishing New Mexico’s voice in D.C. would be a good campaign issue. Well, not for someone who is proudly protectionist.

Heinrich has once again got his head in the clouds while his state struggles to grow and prosper.

And so do his House colleagues from New Mexico. The Puerto Rico Status Act passed the House in December 2022 with every House Democrat voting for the bill, including our own U.S. Reps. Melanie Stansbury and Teresa Leger Fernandez. Former 2nd District Republican U.S. Rep. Yvette Herrell voted against the bill, as did all but 16 House Republicans.

The great irony is either Leger Fernandez or Stansbury may have voted to map themselves out of Congress.

Our senior senator needs to spend more time on issues that matter to New Mexico — like unprecedented levels of illegal immigration, violent crime, poor-performing and inequitable education and energy independence — and less time on high-minded initiatives like saving the planet by banning gas stoves and expanding the number of states for his political party’s gain but to his own state’s detriment.

We’ve only got five electors and we don’t want to become a donor elector state. In this case, it is in New Mexico’s interest to fully vet the bill.