OPINION: It would take a stunning upset to unseat Keller as ABQ mayor

Lately, I’ve been writing more about next year’s race for governor than the Albuquerque mayoral race that’s staring us right in the face, although we look away as if it were a train wreck.

There has been a lot of discussion and intrigue about the Democratic gubernatorial primary next year between former U.S. Department of Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman and former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagashima. But I just haven’t sensed much enthusiasm at all from readers about the mayoral election on Nov. 4.

With a well-funded and polished second-term mayor running in a crowded seven-candidate field, it seems like a fait accompli.

But I took a vow to opine freely and not equivocate at the School of Commentary, so here goes.

You can never know for sure the eventual outcome of a race — that’s why we hold elections and seemingly one-sided sporting events. Who predicted Buster Douglas, at 42-to-1 odds, would knock out Mike Tyson in 1990, sending Tyson to the canvas in the 10th round for the first time in his career? Douglas simply out-boxed the then-undefeated and undisputed heavyweight champion and will live in immortality because of that single fight night.

With that said, I think Mayor Tim Keller is rolling toward an easy reelection. The race is so lopsided I doubt any of the challengers will advertise on TV.

Meanwhile, Keller plans to use the power of incumbency — and up to $30,000 of city funding — to air his 30-minute State of the City speech on five local TV stations between mid-September and Oct. 5, just before the start of absentee voting on Oct. 7.

Keller, who already has near-100% name recognition among Albuquerque voters, delivered the speech Aug. 23 at the ABQ BioPark Botanic Garden, and it received widespread media coverage at the time. But he knows how to use the powers of incumbency to shape his image, and what better way than a 30-minute uninterrupted speech right before voting begins?

Consider this: Keller has never lost a campaign. That’s no accident. He has learned that building a political machine and getting supporters and volunteers to serve as surrogates, while carefully managing his public image, is the path to victory.

Keller essentially campaigns all day every day, using the power of incumbency as needed to draw media attention. We saw this vividly in July when he signed an executive order about U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement activities.

Keller surrounded himself with Hispanic lawmakers and members of immigrant advocacy groups in the mayor’s conference room on July 21, using a different pen to write each letter of his signature, then passing the pens backward as if he had just signed the Emancipation Proclamation or something profound.

Was it political theater? Absolutely. Was it effective? Yep. Although hardly newsworthy, the event received extensive news coverage, with Keller portrayed as a defender of immigrant rights. You can’t buy TV ads that effective.

Counting his chickens before Election Day has been a winning formula for Keller for nearly two decades. I don’t blame voters for that, I credit Keller.

Keller won the 2021 mayoral race with 56% of votes cast. There was no need for a runoff after exceeding 50%.

Keller won the 2017 mayoral race with 39.35% of votes cast in October when city of Albuquerque elections used to be held, and then received 62.2% of votes in the runoff election against City Councilor Dan Lewis in November.

Keller won the 2014 race for state auditor with 54.3% of votes after running uncontested in the Democratic primary. And Keller was uncontested in the 2008 general election and 2012 primary election for District 17 in the New Mexico Senate.

This time, Keller is in an ideal position again as the only candidate to have qualified for public financing. He was also the only mayoral candidate to qualify for public financing in his 2017 and 2021 campaigns.

According to the Journal’s most recent reporting on campaign finances in mid-August, Keller had raised $757,147 of contributions, including $733,968 in public campaign financing, meaning he had only raised $23,179 of private funds.

“Unlike our opponents, we’re not chasing dollars — we’re focused on meeting voters where they are and talking about the future of Albuquerque,” a Keller campaign spokesperson told the Journal last month.

Meanwhile, the rest of the field is way behind, slogging along with private donations and personal loans and contributions.

Albuquerque City Councilor and former police officer Louie Sanchez was next behind Keller with $222,488 of contributions, which included a $150,000 loan from Sanchez to his campaign.

Sanchez was followed by former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White with $179,993 of contributions, parking lot business owner Daniel Chavez with $114,375 that included a $100,000 personal contribution to his campaign, former U.S. attorney for the district of New Mexico Alex Uballez with $98,411 of contributions, former Sandoval County deputy manager Mayling Armijo with $77,666 of contributions that includes a $15,000 loan she gave her campaign, and former Albuquerque deputy fire chief Eddie Varela with $6,377.

There are quite a lot of “formers” in the preceding paragraph, and none of them have emerged as Keller’s top challenger as time is running out.

All seven candidates knew the rules going into the race, yet Keller was the only mayoral candidate with a political machine capable of gathering 3,780 donations of $5 each by the June 21 deadline to qualify for public financing. That’s because he is a professional politician, from the cut of his hair down to the cut of his boots, and a master of media manipulation.

In my book, Keller is the second-most powerful Democrat in New Mexico, eclipsed only by Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. And for my money, he is the New Mexico Democrat most likely to be seen shaking hands, kissing babies and eating a turkey leg at the Iowa State Fair approaching the 2028 or 2032 presidential primaries.

Right now, Keller appears to be in a race he can’t lose. But that’s what they said about Tyson before he got beat up by Douglas in Tokyo.