OPINION: Keller using advantages to outperform his job approval rating and voter discontent

As a political commentator, I have to rely on my hunches.

That is, until Brian Sanderoff’s firm releases a poll, at which point I need to shift more to political science than my political faith.

I’ve come to learn you can bank on Sanderoff’s polling numbers. Time and again, his firm is off by only a few percentage points, if that, from actual election results. His polling methodology has been proven solid election after election, and the Journal is fortunate to have his firm’s exclusive insight as we write pre-election stories and commentaries.

Sanderoff’s polling of the Albuquerque mayoral race released Sept. 28 was brutal to the field of candidates. One of them, Daniel Chavez, dropped out of the race last week citing his 1% showing in the poll.

Chavez may have been saving face after an alleged groping incident emerged recently, but in any case, he saw the handwriting on the wall and suspended his campaign in the final weeks of the mayoral race. I was a bit disappointed because Chavez was the only candidate with a bold vision for an NBA-level stadium in Albuquerque, but as Flavor Flav says, “That’s the way the ball bounces, G.”

Former Sandoval County Deputy Manager Mayling Armijo and former Albuquerque Deputy Fire Chief Eddie Varela polled at 1% and 2%, respectively, among the 514 proven and likely voters surveyed. They should follow Chavez’s lead and suspend their campaigns, using what time-sensitive influence they have by throwing their support behind more viable candidates.

Chavez, Armijo and Varela (not another local personal injury law firm, but I like the name in concept) weren’t the only candidates to have cold water thrown onto their campaigns. They all got a cold chill, with a whopping 37% of respondents saying they were still undecided in late September when the poll was conducted.

That does not reflect well on two-term incumbent Mayor Tim Keller, who drew 29% support from poll respondents, or on the other candidates for that matter.

No one is catching fire given the real state of the city, which is under a public safety state of emergency declared by the governor. Keller has a 42% approval rating, with a 47% disapproval rating, according to the Journal poll.

Only 13% of poll respondents described the city as very safe, while 46% said somewhat safe, 27% said somewhat unsafe and 13% said very unsafe. Meanwhile, the city’s homeless population has doubled since 2021.

If it weren’t for international immigration, our state would have had no population growth over the past five years, the New Mexico Department of Workforce Solutions conceded last month. More Americans are leaving New Mexico than moving here while deaths outpace births. Our pathetic 1.6% state population growth between 2019 and 2024 was entirely driven by international immigration, state officials admitted, with 30% of New Mexico’s immigrant population living in the U.S. without legal permission.

That’s a lot to throw on Keller’s shoulders, but he has been mayor of the state’s largest city the past eight years.

We can all see the malaise on a daily basis with panhandlers in Albuquerque medians and homeless encampments throughout the city. It’s little wonder poll respondents found homelessness and crime as the top issues.

With record numbers of homicides in the city, reaching as high as 121 in 2022, and allowing the Coronado Park homeless encampment to devolve into “the most dangerous place in the state of New Mexico” in Keller’s own words, that’s a tough record to run on.

Another candidate with disappointing polling numbers was former U.S. attorney for New Mexico Alex Uballez, who drew support from only 6% of poll respondents. Uballez’s attempts to out-flank Keller’s political left and position himself as Keller’s top challenger are coming up way short.

City Councilor Louie Sanchez, who also drew support from only 6% of respondents, also has to be disappointed. The fierce critic of the Keller administration is coming up short in his hopes of being Keller’s top rival.

Darren White, the best-known Republican in the mayoral race, was the one candidate to exceed my expectations in the Journal poll.

White, who has a built-in base of GOP voters, placed second in the poll at 16% and is best positioned to make it to a runoff election with Keller, assuming Keller doesn’t boost his showing to 50% on Election Day.

“I know I woke up pretty damn pleased Sunday morning (when the Journal poll was published),” White told the Journal Editorial Board on Wednesday. “I’m sure (Keller) didn’t.

“So my position is this. I know that I can make it to the runoff. He’s not going to get 51%.”

Overall though, the poll showed Keller has his challengers on the ropes while the crowded field is narrowing and time is running out. Early voting for the Nov. 4 election begins Tuesday at county clerk offices and absentee ballots will begin being mailed out this week to voters on the permanent absentee voter list.

“I can win this race,” White told us, while committing to not running for re-election if he wins. “He’s got a financial advantage, but all the money in the world can’t change his record.”

Journal polling showed White and Sanchez splitting Republican votes. That’s a recipe for defeat for both of them. If Sanchez wants to see a new mayor, he should also see the handwriting on the wall and throw his support behind White.

White needs every vote he can get as Keller’s top challenger. He has to relentlessly curry the 37% of undecided voters over the next four weeks to make the runoff. The undecided voters will determine the winner, at least in the first round of voting.

If there is a runoff in December due to the city’s dumb election code, voter turnout will be worse than abysmal, and that works to the advantage of the one candidate with near-100% name recognition, to have qualified for public financing, and with the best political machine, which is Keller.

I saw Keller’s first TV ad on Tuesday. “We’re doing a lot more than the news media is telling you about,” he concludes the ad. I expect to see many more self-congratulatory TV ads from Keller in the coming weeks and few, if any, from his challengers.

My hunches and the science are aligning: It’s still Keller’s race to lose, despite his underwater job approval rating and the general feeling of malaise in the city. Overcoming Keller’s overwhelming financial, name recognition and incumbency advantages would require a political earthquake, but they do happen from time to time.