OPINION: Mayoral runoff election will likely mirror the last one

Mayor Tim Keller must have a pretty good pollster. Five days before Tuesday’s election, the mayor told the Journal Editorial Board his internal polling had him in the mid-30s.

Keller said his internal polling indicated the race was “very close” between himself and challenger Darren White and he predicted a runoff, with none of the seven candidates on the ballot able to reach the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff.

His numbers were spot on. Keller received 36% of votes cast in Tuesday’s local election while White took 31%. That was probably a little too close for comfort for a two-term mayor seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term, but about as good as a mayor could expect with a 42% approval-47% disapproval rating, according to a Journal Poll in late September.

Coming in third with almost 19% of votes was former U.S. Attorney for New Mexico Alex Uballez. Outgoing District 1 City Councilor Louie Sanchez received 6%, former Bernalillo County director of economic development Mayling Armijo got 6%; former Albuquerque paramedic Eddie Varela earned 2%, and businessman Daniel Chavez received 1%.

Now, because of the city’s redundant and expensive election code, there will be a runoff between Keller and White on Dec. 9 that will cost taxpayers money to both conduct and to fund Keller’s campaign.

Keller likened the start of the runoff election to “halftime” of this year’s election cycle, but the game has gone on long enough and the ultimate results appear inevitable.

Even if White were to win over voters who backed Sanchez, Armijo and Varela, and retain his own supporters, it would still leave White short of the 50% mark. And there likely aren’t many supporters of Uballez who will shift their vote to White who is at the opposite end of the political spectrum from Uballez.

Keller, the only mayoral candidate to qualify for public financing in the city’s last three mayoral elections, is also the only candidate to qualify for public financing in the upcoming runoff election. That means he’ll receive another $378,000 of tax funds for the runoff, in addition to the $734,000 of tax dollars Keller’s campaign received in the first round.

“You have to earn it,” he told the Editorial Board.

Meanwhile, White, a former secretary of the state Department of Public Safety and a former Bernalillo County sheriff, will get no public financing in the runoff because he didn’t acquire 3,780 donations of $5 each in a 64-day window ending June 21.

The city’s “progressive” election code, disguised by the name of the Open and Ethical Campaign Code of 2005, is made possible because Albuquerque is a home rule city. White calls the city’s election code an “incumbent protection program” and it’s hard to argue he’s wrong given recent election outcomes. The system may not be rigged but it sure looks stacked.

We’ll also have two runoff elections on Dec. 9 for City Council seats.

Stephanie Telles, who received 36% of votes, will face Joshua Neal, who got 26%, for an open seat to represent District 1 on the city’s West Side.

City Councilor Klarissa Peña, who was publicly financed, will face challenger Teresa Garcia for the District 3 southwest Albuquerque seat. Peña also qualifies for public financing in the runoff because she received it during the first round.

Mayoral and City Council candidates who did not qualify for public financing in the first round are also ineligible in the runoff. What did White call it again? Oh yeah, an “incumbent protection program.”

Albuquerque’s elections appear stuck in a cycle like Bill Murray in “Groundhog Day.” In the 2017 mayoral election, Keller received 39% of votes cast while City Councilor Dan Lewis received almost 23%. Brian Colón received 16%, Wayne Johnson got 9%, Gus Pedrotty got almost 7%, Michelle Garcia Holmes got almost 4%, and two other candidates finished with a combined 1%.

Keller went on to defeat Lewis 62% to 38% in the 2017 runoff. If Uballez voters cross over to Keller in the runoff, and all other voters for other candidates get behind White, Keller would win the runoff with 54.5%.

Sound familiar? Keller won reelection in 2021 with 56% of votes in a four-person race, avoiding a runoff that cycle.

The results of Tuesday’s election, and the upcoming runoff, will likely underscore the old adage: The more things change, the more they stay the same. A Democrat mayor is likely going to win again by 10 to 20 percentage points against a Republican in a highly Democratic city.

The least we can do to shake things up, correct course and save taxpayers some money is to get rid of the silly and unnecessary runoffs.