Three takeaways from UNM's 27-17 loss to NMSU

Coaches and players say it all the time: there’s usually only four or five plays that determine the outcome of any game.

Never was that more true than Saturday night at University Stadium.

An announced crowd of 27,414 was in the stands as New Mexico fell to New Mexico State, 27-17, for the Lobos’ (1-2) second-straight loss to the Aggies (2-2) in as many years, the product of a few big plays and missed opportunities.

Three takeaways from the 113th edition of the Rio Grande Rivalry:

NMSU’s offense – and Diego Pavia – finally found themselves

It wasn’t all that long ago when Jerry Kill sat down for a postgame press conference and said, in a voice hoarse from yelling, they’d figure this out one way or another.

There would be no 1-5 or 2-7 start like last year, he said. They’d fit the right pieces where they needed to be and move on without much fanfare. And if there wasn’t an easy answer immediately available, well, they’d find one.

“We gotta figure it out again: you gotta identify who you are, and you need to play,” Kill said after an oft-disjointed season-opening 41-30 loss to UMass.

A few weeks later, Kill didn’t speak with the media following Saturday’s game, one it initially wasn’t clear he would coach in. He did, however, speak with his team before returning to the sideline.

“Coach Kill said pregame, ‘whatever we do tonight, that’s gonna be our identity,’” NMSU quarterback Diego Pavia said after the game. “And I think we found our identity. We’ll be ready to roll.”

So much of that is keyed on Pavia and what he does well. After spending a few weeks looking like a player trying almost too hard to fit into a system, Tim Beck, NMSU’s offensive coordinator and interim head coach in Kill’s absence, told him to stop carrying that load. Take the pressure off and let the game come to him.

“We went into film and I was just realizing, I’m taking away my game,” Pavia said. “And my game’s on my feet. I go 1, 2, 3 and, you know, the last read is me. So if they want to drop everyone, then I’m gonna take off with it.”

That he did. Pavia rushed for a season and team-high 96 yards on 11 carries, running free on the perimeter and hard up the middle to prolong drives or just flat-out get yards.

“He played within himself,” Beck said. “He did a nice job of picking up some first downs with his legs every once in a while. They do such a good job of pressuring, bringing blitzes, stunts and twists and everything else you can imagine that it’s pretty hard to handle, but he did a pretty good job of handling it.”

In turn, Pavia was 9-for-14 passing with two touchdowns and 203 yards. If he wasn’t surgical in picking the Lobos apart, he found wide receiver Jonathan Brady (three receptions, 109 yards, two touchdowns) downfield when the Aggies needed it most.

Through it all, NMSU found its identity, something to hang its hat on going forward. That it was against its biggest rival only made it sweeter.

“It’s always good to get a win down here in Albuquerque,” Pavia said with a shrug and a smile, “or Aggiequerque. My bad.”

Secondary’s woes continue

Saturday was not the kind of five-alarm fire that Texas A&M presented, six receiving touchdowns and 277 passing yards running the Lobos off the field in a 52-10 loss. But for another game, UNM was on the wrong side of a couple big plays and now, all eyes are back on a secondary tasked with growing up and growing up fast.

Gonzales was adamant the corners weren’t the issue on Saturday and the numbers indicate as much: for the second straight week, there wasn’t a single pass thrown in Donte Martin’s direction. And after Gonzales indicated some mild displeasure with Zach Morris’ outing against Tennessee Tech, he turned in a much sharper performance, letting up just two catches on three targets for 25 yards.

Which leaves a group of Wolf safeties working out the kinks on the fly. In thinking about the 31-yard Brady touchdown over Jermarius Lewis and the 75-yarder pinned to Aaron Smith, Gonzales was quick to assess where there needs to be growth.

“They’ve got to get better at man coverage,” Gonzales said. “They’re athletic enough. They’re fast enough. They’ve got to (get) the technique right.”

For his part, Lobo safety Tavian Combs again emphasized communication and execution on the backend.

“That’s what it boils down to at the end of the day,” Combs said. “If you can’t get those plays down and get that communication down, it’s going to fall apart.”

With guarantee, it’s bowl game-or-bust from here on out

Gonzales is probably right when he said Saturday night won’t define their season. For starters, this was really the first chance to evaluate what kind of team they’d be this season – lopsided results against Texas A&M and Tennessee Tech were never going to give much insight into what this team could do against the meat of their schedule.

And while it might be one of the biggest games of the season, it is just one game against one team. NMSU wasn’t defined by that UMass loss and showed it against UNM. In turn, a small sample size, no matter how crushing, probably shouldn’t define the Lobos at this point.

What Gonzales said after the game, however, definitely will.

“I guarantee this team will be in a bowl game this year,” he said. “We will find five wins from here to the end of the Utah State (finale). Because of the players that we have in that locker room, the attitude that we have in that locker room, (our) trajectory and (growth).”

Make no mistake: this will be a thing. The Guarantee. It will be talked about by fans. On radio shows. Podcasts. Mentioned in newspaper articles, asked about during press conferences.

It will fundamentally do nothing to change what the Lobos have done or will do that might lead to them making or missing a bowl. But it will color how every win, every loss is treated from the outside looking in. Win one? Okay, X more to go. Lose one? Only Y chances left.

On Saturday night, Gonzales changed the entire tenor of the season, if not his whole tenure. Next week’s game at UMass was always going to be big, but it just got bigger. Same for a road trip to Wyoming. Home games against San Jose State and Hawaii.

Ready or not, it’s bowl game or bust in Albuquerque.