Betting on the UNM Lobos to win the NCAA Tournament? Here's what to know

The New Mexico Lobos, listed as 500-1 shots to win the 2024-25 NCAA men’s basketball title at multiple Las Vegas casinos at midseason, are one of many teams in the NCAA Tournament considered huge underdogs to claim the title.

For instance, upon scanning seven sports-betting websites on Vegasinsiders.com Monday, there were 50 schools with odds of 100-1 or longer. Four were at 2,500-1. The Lobos now are at 200-1.

But that doesn’t mean those teams don’t have a prayer to succeed. Take, for instance, Sister Jean’s Loyola Chicago Ramblers team of seven years ago. Despite preseason odds of 5,000-1 to win the championship they went on to reach the Final Four.

UNM was having a similar dream season in 2022-23. For a while.

That’s when coach Richard Pitino guided the Lobos to a 14-0 start and a No. 21 national ranking. That was pretty impressive for a squad that had 2,000-1 title odds in the preseason. But, alas, UNM stumbled down the stretch and wound up one-and-done in the NIT, finishing at 22-12.

On Friday, UNM will get another chance at chasing down its first national championship — and first Sweet Sixteen berth (in an expanded, 64-or-more-team tournament) for that matter — when it enters as a No. 10 seed and faces No. 7 Marquette in a first-round game in Cleveland.

A little bit of history

This is UNM’s 17th season to play in March Madness and they have yet to win more than one game before being KO’d.

Many of the Lobos’ defeats have been quite painful, such as their 2013 loss to No. 14 Harvard as a 3 seed, 68-62. They had been seeded that high on two other occasions, too, but wound up losing in the second round to a lower seed. In 2010 it was to No. 11 Washington. In 1997 to No. 6 Louisville.

There were two losses long before that which cost them the chance to play in the Pit in a regional final.

In 1968 the Lobos received a first-round bye in the then 23-team event and got to play at home in the Round of 16. But they lost to Santa Clara, 86-73.

Earlier that day New Mexico State lost to eventual national champion UCLA in the semifinals in Albuquerque

Ten years later the Pit also was the site of a regional. But UNM missed out on advancing that far when it fell in the Round of 32 to Cal-State Fullerton, 90-85, after squandering a six-point halftime advantage.

At the other end of the seeding spectrum, UNM has been 10th or lower four other times and lost in the first round each time. That includes the 2024 postseason, on the heels of the Lobos’ Mountain West tourney win, when they lost to Clemson, 77-56.

So, what are the chances of UNM making some noise this year?

Veteran handicapper chimes in

“While the Lobos didn’t dominate opponents statistically (in the regular season), they did finish No. 28 in scoring offense and No. 30 in overall scoring margin,” said nationally recognized handicapper Marc Lawrence, publisher of the Playbook Basketball newsletters available at PlaybookSports.com.

So far, so good.

“But they were No. 141 in scoring defense and No. 105 in shooting defense, a key category for success in the NCAA tourney.” Uh-oh!

As an FYI, four teams seeded 10th or lower have advanced to the Final Four the past eight seasons, including NC State at No. 11 last season. At BetMGM last week, the Lobos were listed at 50-1 to get that far. But the lowest seed to win it all was Villanova in 1985 at No. 8.

In closing: Longshot favorites

“As far as the NCAA Tournament is concerned, a longshot at or near 100-1 or better that stands a fighting chance of making the Sweet 16 could be seventh-seeded Kansas (80-1). They were the No. 1 team in the AP preseason Top 25 and slipped mightily, but there is plenty of talent on the team,” Lawrence said.

Lawrence also had high marks for sixth-seeded Ole Miss (120-1), seventh-seeded UCLA (150-1) and 11th-seeded Virginia Commonwealth (300-1), the latter two teams the Lobos beat this season.