Can New Mexico upset No. 14 Michigan? Three keys and a prediction

107,601 fans screaming and cheering into the dark of night.

A blue blood program stocked with four- and five-star recruits.

On any given Saturday, it’s as good as college football gets — and New Mexico is tasked with all that this weekend.

Maybe the biggest key to working through it?

Don’t make it bigger than it actually is.

“It’s a little bit like the movie Hoosiers. Maybe you have to measure the goal post like the coach (measured the basket) in Hoosiers,” UNM head coach Jason Eck said Tuesday.

The Lobos open their first season under Eck on Saturday at No. 14 Michigan. Three keys for an (unlikely) Lobos upset ... plus, a prediction:

1. Pressure the QB

There’s two ways for UNM to look at Saturday. On one hand, they’re going up against former No. 1 recruit in the country Bryce Underwood, a wildly successful prep quarterback at Belleville (Mich.) High School and the darling of every recruiting service.

Some analysts project him as a possible first-round NFL draft pick, and it isn’t too hard to see why.

On the other hand? He’s a true freshman making his first career start.

Talent aside, how much of a difference does that make?

“Maybe a little bit,” Lobo defensive end Keyshawn James-Newby said Tuesday. “Because maybe (his) coach is telling (him), ‘hey, after you look to your (first read), maybe get out of the pocket’ or something. Whereas a more experienced quarterback will have a little more comfort in the pocket.

“But other than that, it doesn’t really make a difference to me. At the end of the day, I gotta go tackle that guy.”

That might be the biggest key to a good performance from UNM. Underwood is remarkably talented, an obvious five-star, but he doesn’t have the experience — at least not in college.

UNM’s defensive line, however, does. For the first time in a while, there’s real, quality depth and experience up front, with James-Newby and defensive lineman Gabe Lopez leading the way. Do they have enough to force a freshman mistake (or two) to help their odds?

2. Protect Layne

An obvious key in every game, but an especially important one against Michigan: With 36 sacks last season, the Wolverines were a top-20 defense in terms of rushing the passer. And while the core of that unit (defensive linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant) left for the NFL, there’s still plenty of key returners — defensive end Derrick Moore in particular — that present problems for UNM.

It’s also a defense that’s known to bring pressure — or at least something that looks like it — in unique ways. Under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, Michigan has been known to bring a high rate of blitzes and simulated pressures, confusing quarterbacks before taking them down.

“(It) makes you very multiple on defense, and very hard for a quarterback to kind of distinguish what you’re doing,” quarterback Jack Layne explained Tuesday. “You know, I’m excited. I’m expecting a lot of junk, that’s kind of his thing. And expecting a lot of pressure.”

It’s on Layne to sort through the junk, of course. But the rest of the offense has to give him consistent chances to do so if UNM wants to truly threaten Michigan.

3. Limit turnovers

Another painfully obvious key, but again, a necessary one. Even if UNM protects the ball all game, the Lobos have a razor thin margin for error. And unless Michigan is matching mistakes, one fumble or interception might be the difference; two or more could be fatal.

Prediction

At the start of last season, an Eck-coached Idaho team (with plenty of current Lobos) put a scare into an Oregon team that went on to win the Big Ten and earn the College Football Playoff’s number-one seed. Sure, it ended up being a 24-14 loss for Idaho, but it went a long way towards building belief among the Vandals down the stretch.

“I don’t really believe in moral victories, but I do think you can build confidence with how you play,” Eck said. “And I think how you play in a game can also set precedents for later, for something to build upon.”

I don’t think Michigan is as good as that Oregon team was last year. They’ll need a potentially generational season from a true freshman quarterback to reach those heights, and I’m just not sure that’s in the cards. I do, however, think Michigan can exploit some of this team’s (current) weaknesses as well as any program out there.

I’m thinking it’s a thin cover for the Lobos. No. 14 Michigan 38, UNM 7