Can the Lobos clinch a winning record? Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico-Colorado State

Three keys and a prediction as New Mexico hosts Colorado State with a chance to clinch the program’s first winning record in nearly 10 years:

1. Manage pressure well

Tuesday, Eck made a point to discuss how dangerous Colorado State’s pressure packages can be. And the way he describes it, it’s not so much that they have an elite edge rusher or two driving those specific plays — really, it’s more that the Rams work in a lot of zero pressures, bringing six or seven players to pop free rushers through as opposed to winning one-on-one battles.

Consider it a quantity over quality approach to rushing the quarterback. But even with those tendencies in mind, the Rams have the lowest sack total (9) in the league.

Why?

Head coach Jason Eck didn’t quite detail the ins-and-outs of Colorado State struggling to get home as much as he did the effect of its pass rush tendencies.

“It’s not like they’re coming from depth and disguising. I mean, they bring everyone down, which I think forces a lot of quick, ill-advised throws,” he added. “ … I think they’ve created some turnovers on missed throws where the quarterback knows pressure is coming, knows there’s unblocked guys and throws it up ill-advised. Which, in some ways, is even more valuable than a sack to get the ball back.”

To avoid any major miscues, UNM will have to manage that pressure well. That’s on the offensive line, running backs, tight ends and coaching staff as much as it is quarterback Jack Layne, who admitted to admiring how Colorado State sets things up.

“If I was a defensive coordinator, that’s how I would do it,” he said Tuesday. “Cover 0 is hard (for) a quarterback to get ready for … It’s gonna be a great challenge.”

2. Win the rushing battle

In a season that’s brought plenty of misery for the Rams, Colorado State got another bitter piece of news this week: Running back Jalen Dupree is no longer with the program and will enter the transfer portal in the coming weeks.

From a production standpoint, Dupree’s departure is a relatively crushing blow. The 6-0, 210-pound redshirt freshman has rushed for a team-high 508 yards and two touchdowns on 102 carries, and had a viable case as Colorado State’s best offensive player this season.

There is, however, also a case to be made that Dupree’s departure could benefit the Rams — after all, Colorado State has had its challenges balancing Dupree’s carries with other talented backs. But even with him, this hasn’t been a truly excellent rushing attack. The Rams are averaging 137.22 yards on the ground per game, good for ninth in the Mountain West.

They’re also giving up 193.56 rushing yards per game — the worst mark in the league. UNM’s found ways to win without an elite rushing performance, but this is a game the Lobos should be able to control (and win) by running the ball and stopping the run.

Setting that tone early would be wise for a team looking to avoid an upset.

3. Play a clean game

There’s a case to be made that Colorado State is just as talented (if not more) than UNM. But at a certain point, you are what you are, and that talent hasn’t quite shined through in the Rams’ 2-7 record.

It’s still on the Lobos, however, to keep limiting turnovers and costly penalties — in other words, chances for Colorado State to stay in the fight.

“We got to play our best football,” Eck said. “I think if we play our best football, we’ll be fine. If we get sloppy with turnovers and give them a lot of opportunities, or get sloppy with our communication and give up a bunch of big plays, certainly this is a team that can beat us.”

Prediction

I’ve picked the Lobos to drop their last two games (not by much, though!) only for them to reward my predictions with a pair of brilliant wins.

In turn, those same Lobos will be rewarded with their biggest November crowd in years — UNM announced Friday that 25,000 tickets have been sold for Saturday’s game.

I think the Lobos make it worth it for the crowd. New Mexico 34, Colorado State 13