Ad
Can the Lobos upset the Broncos? Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico-Boise State
Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen (4) throws a touchdown pass against South Florida during their Aug. 28 game in Tampa, Fla.
Published
Modified
Smurf Turf. The Blue Plastic Tundra. Or, as most refer to the blue playing surface at Boise State’s Albertsons Stadium: The Blue.
Is there something more to playing on it — especially in front of a sold-out crowd of 36,313?
“(The Blue) is an intimidating venue,” New Mexico head coach Jason Eck said Tuesday. “I think they have a very good crowd, but I think certainly playing at Michigan is good practice for something like this because their fans will be into it. We’re gonna use crowd noise all this week (in practice) to get ready for it.
“But I think, again, we’ve had other games with noise. (It’ll) certainly be louder than it was at the Rose Bowl.”
Saturday, the Lobos will get to see if it is or not.
UNM travels to Boise State looking to pick up its first win in Mountain West play this season and a rare victory against the Broncos on Homecoming; the Lobos have only beat Boise State once in program history.
Three keys and a prediction for the Lobos’ final game (for now) against the Broncos:
1. Stop (or limit) the run
No, Ashton Jeanty won’t be lining up on the blue turf this weekend. Last year’s Heisman runner-up back and former Bronco will be 623 miles away from Albertsons Stadium, preparing for a game with the Las Vegas Raiders by the time the Lobos take the field Saturday night.
But make no mistake: Jeanty or no Jeanty, Boise State wants to run the ball.
Ad
“It’s a DNA part of our team,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said in a press conference Monday.
Through five games, the Broncos are averaging 196.8 rushing yards per game, with running backs Sire Gaines (49 carries, 284 yards, one touchdown), Dylan Riley (53 carries, 393 yards, five touchdowns) and Malik Sherrod (37 carries, 204 yards, one touchdown) doing the vast majority of the work. UNM is allowing 119.8 yards per game, in the neighborhood of where Eck would like to see Boise State’s ground attack Saturday.
“If they’ve ran for 150 yards or more, they’re 3-0,” he added. “Both times they’ve lost, they’ve been around the 100-yard mark. So I think stopping their offense starts with that.”
UNM football: Who's starting for the Lobos against Boise State?
2. Get their run game going
To be clear, UNM wants to run the ball, too. And after averaging 215.3 yards rushing yards against Idaho State, UCLA and New Mexico State — the latter of which actively tried to take the run away — UNM ran for a paltry 76 against San Jose State.
The Lobos effectively abandoned the run against the Spartans, but the ground game hasn’t been nearly as productive as expected, especially at this point in the season. Getting more out of running backs Damon Bankston and Scottre Humphrey will be a major key to a win.
3. Get off to a fast start
Through five games, UNM is averaging 3.8 points in the first quarter, the 96th-worst rate among 136 FBS programs. In fact, the Lobos haven’t scored on the opening drive of any game this season, a quality that hounded them in losses to No. 15 Michigan and San Jose State; the Lobos trailed 14-0 in both games before finding their footing.
Prior to facing a Boise State team averaging 8.8 points in the first (15th of 136), Eck said he modified UNM’s practice schedule to help ensure his team gets off to a fast — or, at least not as slow — start come Saturday.
“You look in three of our five games, we’ve allowed the opposition to get a double-digit lead, really, in the first 20 minutes,” Eck added. “And that’s not a great recipe for success … Really, the only game that we’ve had the lead from the outset was UCLA, but even that game, we had opportunities where we could’ve expanded the lead and we let them hang around.
“So I think we certainly got to start faster, and that’s a point of emphasis.”
Prediction
Is this a trap game for Boise State? Prior to the season, it might’ve been considered as such: UNM fell right in between games against Notre Dame and UNLV, ostensibly bigger matchups for a team that entered this season ranked 25th.
Now? I don’t think the Lobos will catch the Broncos sleeping, especially after a 28-7 loss last week that effectively ended their chances of returning to the College Football Playoff. But I do expect UNM to make Saturday far more respectable than the last few games in this series — even if the 2015 magic isn’t quite there.
Boise State 37, New Mexico 24
