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Grammer: Why each team could win the Mountain West Tournament title
... and why each team but one is losing
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Winning this week's Mountain West Tournament seems to be the only path into the NCAA Tournament for 11 of the conference’s 12 teams (Utah State is safe).
Still, that path exists — just win the MW Tournament.
Unfortunately, there's also a reason every team (except one!) just can't win this week.
1. Utah State Aggies (25-6, 15-5 MW)
Why they could win it: They've been the best team all season, they have the Player of the Year and the Coach of the Year. They're the odds-on favorite to win it. What could possibly go wrong?
Why they have no chance: The No. 1 seed in this tournament has a losing record (7-8) in the championship game. For an Aggies team already on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, is emptying the tank for three games in three days worth it?
2. San Diego State Aztecs (20-10, 14-6)
Why they could win it: No coach has more MW tourney titles than Brian Dutcher's three (seven if you count the four he also had as an assistant under Steve Fisher).
Why they have no chance: No coach has more losses in the MW tourney title game than Dutcher's four (nine if you count the five he also had as an assistant).
3. New Mexico Lobos (22-9, 13-7)
Why they could win it: UNM lost its regular-season finale Saturday on the road to Utah State. The last three times the Lobos have won the MW Tournament, they lost their regular-season finale on the road, including the last two to teams that clinched a regular-season title (USU in 2024 and SDSU in 2014).
Why they have no chance: The Lobos are 5-5 over their past 10 games and ranked 171st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency in that span, according to BartTorvik.com.
4. Grand Canyon Lopes (20-11, 13-7)
Why they could win it: San Diego State has the highest win percentage in the MW Tournament at .698. That's cute, Aztecs. Grand Canyon has an all-time conference tournament record in Las Vegas of 16-3 (.842). The Lopes haven't lost a tourney game in Las Vegas since 2022. Sure it was in the WAC, but let's not forget every single MW Tournament winner has, in fact, played in the WAC before the MW.Grand Canyon has an all-time conference tournament record of 16-3 (.842) in Las Vegas and hasn't lost a tourney game there since 2022. Sure, it was in the WAC, but every single MW Tournament winner played in the WAC before the MW.
Why they have no chance: I mean, they played in the WAC last year.
5. Nevada Wolf Pack (20-11, 12-8)
Why they could win it: Head coach Steve Alford and assistant Craig Neal are the guys everyone thought had this tournament figured out when they won it three consecutive years — 2012, 2013 and 2014, with the Lobos.
Why they have no chance: Alford and Neal are 3-9 in the tournament since that 2014 championship and their teams have advanced past the quarterfinals only once (2021).
6. Boise State Broncos (20-11, 12-8)
Why they could win it: Since Feb. 1, the Broncos are rated No. 1 in the Mountain West according to BartTorvik.com.
Why they have no chance: No current MW team has ever won the tournament after losing to a Division II team in the regular season, as the Broncos did Nov. 3 to Hawaii Pacific. (Utah, now in the Big 12, lost its 2008-09 season opener to D-II Southwest Baptist but went on to win the MW Tournament).
7. Colorado State Rams (20-11, 11-9)
Why they could win it: CSU went 8-2 over its final 10 regular season games last year, really caught fire in February and early March and won the MW Tournament. This year, they've gone 8-2 in their last 10 regular season games, really caught fire in February and early March.
Why they have no chance: No team seeded No. 7 or lower has ever won the MW tournament. Just one seven seed (and none lower) has even made the title game (2006 Wyoming).
8. UNLV Runnin' Rebels (16-15, 11-9)
Why they could win it: Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn can beat anyone by himself.
Why they have no chance: Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn can't beat everyone by himself.
9. Wyoming Cowboys (18-13, 9-11)
Why they could win it: The Fightin' Sundance Wickses have won five of their last six and the crew from Laradise loves nothing more than an extended stay in Sin City.
Why they have no chance: The Pokes' path starts against the hottest player in the league (Gibbs-Lawhorn) in his home gym, and if Wyoming wins, the next obstacle would be the best team in the league (Utah State). And you’re saying that’s just the halfway point of their road to a title?
10. Fresno State Bulldogs (13-18, 7-13)
Why they could win it: In the foul-fest that is Mountain West officiating, the Fresno State Bulldogs led the league (in conference play) in defensive free throw rate, and not because they don't defend (they were 5th in defensive efficiency). While plenty of points will come at the line this week (exciting, I know), Fresno State won't give too many away there.
Why they have no chance: Fresno State has two losses to teams KenPom has ranked 300 or worse. The worst KenPom loss in a season for an eventual tournament champion was 276 when UNM lost to Santa Clara in the 2011-12 season and when Boise State lost to Cal State Bakersfield in the 2021-22 season.
11. San Jose State Spartans (8-23, 3-17)
Why they could win it: The Spartans have Colby Garland (21.2 points, 4.6 assists per game), which is a good start. But they also led the MW with the lowest turnover rate (13.9%) in league games. Only one MW Tournament winner has ever had a better TO% in league play (2024 UNM at 13.6%).
Why they have no chance: Nobody has been injured more than the Spartans this year. Also, SJSU is 2-11 (.154) all-time in the tournament, the worst in the tournament’s history.
12. Air Force Falcons (3-28, 0-20)
Why they could win it: Nobody has ever beaten a No. 12 seed in the Mountain West Tournament. (Hey, I'm trying here!)
Why they have no chance: You know what? I can't think of a single reason. So here's my pick. Go Falcons!
Reach Geoff Grammer at ggrammer@abqjournal.com or follow him on Twitter (X) @GeoffGrammer.
