How big (and rare) is a 3-1 start? Five final thoughts and more from UNM's win over NMSU

Five final thoughts from New Mexico’s 38-20 rivalry win over New Mexico State:

1. New Mexico is 3-1. That might be as big for the program’s fortunes as it is rare, at least in the context of the last 65 years of Lobo football.

Not including this season, the full list of 3-1 starts since UNM started playing games at University Stadium in 1960:

Note: UNM started 4-0 (an even rarer feat) in 1997, 1984 and 1982, but we'll ignore those for this exercise.

-1962 (Final record: 7-2-1)

-1964 (Final record: 9-2)

-1976 (Final record: 4-7)

-1996 (Final record: 6-5)

-2005 (Final record: 6-5)

-2007 (Final record: 9-4)

That’s five winning seasons out of six, averaging out to 6.8 wins to 4.2 losses in total. Take out the disappointing 4-7 in former head coach Bill Mondt’s third season at UNM and its 7.4 wins to 3.6 losses – right in line with ESPN’s Football Power Index’s predicted 7.5 wins and 4.6 losses for the 2025 Lobos.

Is seven wins – well, give or take – the right expectation for this team? I think so. If a spirited loss to Michigan coupled with a down Mountain West was enough to recalibrate expectations at the start of the season, 3-1 should be more than enough to raise them once more; there’s even a few more opportunities (hello, road games at Boise State and UNLV) to set an even brighter forecast.

There’s also a few more opportunities to stumble under those expectations. We’ll get to it shortly, but there were at least a few points against NMSU where it looked like that might happen.

“We can’t feel content,” head coach Jason Eck said Saturday. “We gotta lot of work to do – now we gotta go play conference ball. We’re putting ourselves (on) a great trajectory to be a bowl team, but we can’t relax, we gotta keep striving.”

And beyond the projected record, what are UNM’s odds of going bowling? After Saturday, FPI gives the program a 93.6% chance of breaking a postseason drought nearly a decade long.

Again: 3-1 is big.

2. How UNM got to 3-1 in the first place might be the most important thing, though. NMSU hit the break up 17-14 but very well could have been up 24-17, 27-17, 31-17 … you name it. Linebacker Bernock Iya took advantage of running back Scottre Humphrey’s first-half fumble for a 42-yard return touchdown, but wide receiver Shawn Miller’s muffed punt and an empty possession at the very end of the first half?

The Aggies couldn’t capitalize. UNM deserves a lot of credit for putting plenty of those fires out, but there might be some who saw the first half and questioned how much of the game was about the Lobos beating the Lobos or the Aggies beating the Aggies.

“We had every opportunity to win that game,” NMSU head coach Tony Sanchez said Saturday.

The second half? Different story. UNM outscored the Aggies 24-3 and outgained them 268-146 over the final two quarters, a mostly dominating close when they absolutely needed it. Wins are everything, but that kind of performance should be more heartening to fans than the record at this point.

“That’s something we just constantly emphasize – how do we respond?” Eck said. “How do you respond, when something bad happens?”

Bonus: The Lobos are now averaging 17.3 points in the second half, a top 20 mark in the 136-team FBS and the program’s best since (surprisingly?) 2013. That team finished 3-9; this one might be a little better at closing games out.

3. After throwing three picks at Michigan, quarterback Jack Layne is 48 of 67 (71.6%) for 610 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games. That’s one of the more dialed-in stretches UNM has seen from anybody under center in a minute, and it’s been particularly fascinating to watch if only because Layne just seems to get better each game.

“One thing (offensive coordinator Luke Schleusner) is really good at is generating constant improvement,” Eck said. “And I think he’s really generated an offense that’s constantly improved, and making good strides.”

Perhaps most notable? Layne connected on three of four deep shots to the middle of the field for 113 yards and one touchdown, something he hadn’t been doing with too much regularity. He mentioned earlier this season that he wanted to give his receivers more chances with 50/50 balls; with a healthy WR1 in Keagan Johnson back in the mix, he did just that.

“(Johnson’s 48-yard reception in the third quarter), we checked to,” Eck said. “ … We said, ‘alright, we’re gonna call a run play but if they bring everybody up again, you can check it to a shot.’ (Layne) checked it and hit the big one to Keagan down the stretch.”

I had my doubts about whether the Lobos could get its passing game in gear entering the midpoint of the season – at some point, things just are what they are. And sure, NMSU set the table with how they played UNM.

But a consistent downfield attack (and Eck does want to go downfield) changes the complexion of this offense – and what it could do going forward.

“If you run the ball well, you should have opportunities to get one-on-ones and throw the ball over people’s heads,” Eck said. “And I’ve never been a guy who loved 4-yard passes – you might as well just run it one more time if you’re gonna throw a 4-yard pass. So if you do throw it, throw it deep.

“And we had some good ones today.”

4. UNM entered Saturday generating a lot of pressure with just two sacks on the season. And while it wasn’t a major worry (this front seven has been a clear upgrade from the last couple of years) maybe there was a little concern – after all, this had been a (relatively maddening) issue for previous defenses.

There shouldn’t be any concern now. After Saturday’s school record-tying nine sacks off 17 (!) pressures, the Lobos have as many sacks (11) through four games as they did all of last season. Having a guy like Keyshawn James-Newby “break the seal,” as he called it, with a sack to open the game helps a lot in that regard; whether he and the rest of the front seven can do half of what they did on a week-to-week basis might be the difference if UNM’s going to go from being one of the better defenses in the league to one of its best.

5. And how about the secondary? PFF gave the Lobos a season-high coverage grade of 89.3 after giving up 21 catches for 289 yards (13.8 yards per catch), seven explosive passing plays and one touchdown – numbers that maybe don’t sound outstanding, but certainly played a major role in those record-tying nine sacks.

UNM hadn’t been particularly worrisome on the back end this season, but this felt like a more assertive performance from what was essentially a completely new secondary. Count them as a unit that's weathered a few storms and gotten better over the last few weeks.

Snap counts

UNM’s offensive snap counts from Saturday:

-OL Tyler Lawrence: 73

-OL Malik Aliane: 73

-OL Kaden Robnett: 73

-OL Richard Pearce: 73

-QB Jack Layne: 73

-WR Keagan Johnson: 70

-WR Shawn Miller: 53

-TE Dorian Thomas: 49

-WR Michael Buckley: 42

-OL Israel Mukwiza: 41

-TE Cade Keith: 35

-RB D.J. McKinney: 33

-OL Jaymar Tasi: 26

-RB Damon Bankston: 21

-RB Scottre Humphrey: 20

-OL Nevell Brown: 18

-WR Zhaiel Smith: 11

-TE Simon Mapa: 11

-RB Deshaun Buchanan: 8

UNM’s highest graded offensive player, per PFF? None other than Layne, earning a grade of 86.9.

UNM’s defensive snap counts from Saturday, per PFF:

-LB Jaxton Eck: 66

-S CJ McBean: 64

-S Caleb Coleman: 59

-S Tavian Combs: 59

-CB Jon Johnson: 56

-DE Keyshawn James-Newby: 50

-CB Abraham Williams: 50

-DL Gabriel Lopez: 50

-DE Brett Karhu: 42

-CB Frankie Edwards III: 38

-DE Darren Agu: 36

-DE Xavier Slayton: 35

-S David Murphy: 33

-LB Dimitri Johnson: 30

-DL Brian Booker: 26

-LB Mercury Swaim: 16

-DL Okiki Olorunfunmi: 16

-LB Ky’Won McCray: 13

-S Clint Stephens: 13

-DE Elijah Brody: 12

-DL Jalen McIver: 9

-S Drew Speech: 8

-S Azariah Levells: 5

-DE Landon Williams: 5

-S Victor Villafuerte: 1

UNM’s highest graded defensive player, per PFF? Cornerback Jon Johnson with a grade of 86.4.

Notes and quotes

-Was Miller supposed to field the punt he muffed in the second quarter? Not really, but Eck indicated he wasn’t putting much of the blame on him.

“You want to field punts in the air, and then you can catch them off one clean bounce,” Eck said. “Once they start bouncing twice, it’s a problem. So that was a poor decision – we gotta do a better job coaching him. He was new (returning punts) this game, it was his first game doing it as a Lobo.”

-And why so many neutral-zone infractions for James-Newby? Eck said there was one he thought the defensive end was trying to time the snap count (“a dual-edged sword,” he added) but believed most were simply just him being in the neutral zone.

“That is exactly what I was worried about in a game like this – there’s a lot of emotions going, you’re amped up,” Eck said, “and now a simple thing, like making sure you’re not four inches into the neutral zone – which you usually are pretty good at – you miss. But we gotta keep coaching that better.”

-Eck knew ultra-popular streamer iShowSpeed before he popped up at Saturday’s game because his 10-year-old son watches his content. : “I thought about trying to say hello at halftime," Eck said, "but then I thought, ‘Hey, we’re down by three’ – that might be a bad look if I say hello at halftime and we end up losing this game.

“I didn’t wanna go viral for coaches trying to talk to YouTubers.”

-A great bit of rivalry chatter from Sanchez on UNM’s announced attendance of 37,440, the first sellout in nearly 20 years: “There were a lot of empty seats, so it wasn't totally sold out,” he said. “They sold all the tickets, but there were a lot of empty seats.”

-San Jose State opened as a 2-point favorite over UNM ahead of Friday's game in San Jose, California.