Lobo football mailbag: How shocking was UNM's win against UCLA?

The first quarter of New Mexico’s season is in the books, and there’s a sense of optimism around the program that hasn’t been felt in years.

There’s also plenty of questions surrounding the Lobos’ pleasantly surprising 2-1 start. Here’s Journal staff writer Sean Reider’s attempt to answer some of them, with thoughts on select positions, UNM’s 25-point win over UCLA last week and a possible playoff spot for the Lobos:

Questions have been edited for clarity.

What position group (outside of the running back room) has impressed you the most thus far? (Eye test and statistical if you can, maybe the answer is different for one vs. the other) — Justin Martinez (@JustinM57 on X)

From a statistical perspective, I’ll choose a relatively unimpressive number to illustrate my point. If you would’ve told me before the season that UNM had the same number of sacks as wins through three games, I would’ve assumed they had one or zero — an expected in terms of the win total, but disappointing in terms of sacks.

That they have two sacks and two wins at this point is both a credit to (and a quirk of) a defensive line that’s generated 42 total pressures in those victories, and could really enter another level once they start consistently getting to the QB.

“You can certainly impact the game without (sacks), but hopefully we can get home more in the coming weeks,” Eck said Tuesday. “But I do think we’ve gotten pretty good pressure the last two weeks. Ironically, we had two sacks against Michigan, but I think we’ve probably gotten more pressure the last two weeks, even though it hasn’t led to sacks.”

How shocked were you at the final score in Pasadena? — rc (@morelobo on X)

Very. If only because a 25-point win as a 15.5-point underdog simply doesn’t happen much — if ever. For comparison’s sake, the other teams to win as double-digit underdogs this season, per Yahoo Sports:

Aug. 29: Tarleton State 30, Army 27 (2OT)

Aug. 29: Central Michigan 16, San Jose State 14

Sept. 13: Stanford 30, Boston College 20

Add up those margins and it’s still 10 points shy of how much the Lobos won by Friday. Maybe we should be a little bit more shocked that UNM was a double-digit dog to begin with?

On that note: This schedule has helped, but the Lobos are currently the best team in the country against the spread by point differential, covering by 58 points through three games.

Good or bad, what has surprised you the most so far this season? — Ed Helsinki (@MrEd315 on X)

There hasn’t been a ton of outright bad surprises so far, so I’ll go with something good: I thought UNM would have more issues after multiple rotation receivers (Keagan Johnson, Kader Diop, Isaiah Blair, Shawn Miller, etc.) all missed varying amounts of time entering the season. And that’s not to say the Lobos’ passing game has been particularly electric up to this point, but I believed UNM would need a more well-rounded offensive performance to knock off UCLA.

Of course, 46 carries for 298 yards and three touchdowns said otherwise.

“We certainly want to accentuate our strengths, but continue to work on our passing game as well,” Eck added Tuesday, “in case teams we play really want to stack the box and try to shut down our running game.”

If the Lobos run the table, what are their Group of Five College Football Playoff chances? — TheRealFakeEltonMusk (@nmtatman5000 on X)

If the Lobos ran the table and won a Mountain West title (what a wild sentence to write), it’s hard to imagine them not getting in, especially with only one loss to a Michigan team that will probably finish the season ranked.

That being said, it’s hard to project this in a vacuum; I do think the American Conference’s big three (South Florida, Tulane and Memphis) are in the driver’s seat to represent the Group of Five and will likely have better resumes (at least in the eyes of the selection committee) — but never say never, right?

And just how likely is UNM to run the table? Per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), UNM has a 0.3% chance of winning out to go with a 0.8% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff as the G5 representative. Only UNLV (2.8%), Fresno State (1.6%) and Boise State (0.7%) have better odds of running the table in the Mountain West.

The changes made to increase attendance, such as free under-12 tickets, is what we need to get the community behind this team. Can bringing in 20,000+ fans a week for home games be the spark that keeps the team intact through the transfer portal(s)? — Matt White (@Spookyload on X)

It certainly wouldn’t hurt. But in an era where plenty of transfers are motivated by the possibility of greater opportunity, I still don’t know if it could keep everything intact.

Now, would greater crowds at University Stadium help woo some transfers to UNM? Again, I don’t think it would hurt at all.

Will you consume a grape if the Lobos go bowling? — Nolan Murphy (@papamurph42 on X)

I am opening to eating plenty of new fruits in the event UNM does make a bowl.