NFL forecast: Here's what the Chiefs need to do to make Super Bowl history

The Philadelphia Eagles, led by rushing champion Saquon Barkley and their top-rated defense, will attempt to keep the Kansas City Chiefs from winning their record-setting third straight Super Bowl when the teams clash in New Orleans’ Superdome at 4:30 p.m. MT Sunday.

Super Bowl 59 will be a rematch of the championship game two seasons ago when Kansas City rallied from a 10-point second-half deficit behind limping QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) to edge Philadelphia 38-35.

KC had another dramatic title-clinching victory last year when it again overcame a 10-point deficit in beating San Francisco 25-22 in overtime.

Kansas City, the top seed in the AFC and a slight favorite for this game, was the betting choice to win the title at +600 this summer. Philadelphia, second seed in the NFC, was available at +1700.

And then there’s this:

Since 2000, lower-seeded teams that faced No. 1 seeds have gone 11-2 in the title game, including last season when AFC No. 2 KC beat San Francisco. Teams seeded 4 through 6 have a 5-0 mark vs. No. 1s. Also, since 2007 underdogs have gone 10-6 straight up and 12-4 against the spread.

Now for a closer look at Sunday’s game.

Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (17-2), 4:30 p.m, New Orleans

Chiefs -1 | Over/under 48.5

Kansas City opened as a 1.5-point favorite. The line has since dipped to 1 at most betting sites.

This is also the fourth time Philadelphia has been an underdog this season. In the three previous instances, it won outright.

Mahomes and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts are the QB headliners for this matchup, as they were two years ago. Both suffered late-season injuries (Mahomes with another ankle issue and Hurts a concussion) but managed to guide their team through the playoffs. Now all apparently is well on the health-front.

Much the same can be said for both teams’ rosters.

It has been reported that the Chiefs are as healthy now as they have been all season, with the return of RB Isiah Pacheco (leg), speedy WR Hollywood Brown (knee) and sackmaster DE Chris Jones (calf).

Philadelphia’s standout offensive line appears to be intact with the healthy return of Cam Jurgens (back) at center and Landon Dickerson (knee) at guard.

As for Barkley, he not only led the NFL with 2,005 rushing yards but also set an NFL record with seven TD runs of 60-plus yards.

On the sidelines, KC coach Andy Reid, who began his head coaching career in Philadelphia in 1999, rates a big edge in experience since he will be working his record-setting 45th playoff game.

He’ll match wits with Eagles fourth-year boss Nick Sirianni, who’s after his first title. But in an interesting side note, since Super Bowl 30, coaches who already own a ring have gone only 7-7 when facing a coach who hadn’t yet won a title.

More about the Chiefs

One thing that’s impressive about Reid’s career is the success he and Mahomes have teamed to have coming off a bye. Since 2018 they have gone 14-2, including playoffs. But one of the losses occurred at home against Philadelphia last regular season, 21-17.

With regard to pass protection, Mahomes was sacked a career-high 36 times this season. In one late six-game stretch, he went down 23 times. But he has been kept relatively clean since nine-year veteran Joe Thuney ended the revolving door at left tackle in Week 15. In his five starts there, excluding the meaningless season finale, KC gave up only six sacks.

That line will be tested against Philadelphia’s high-octane pass rush that’s generated eight sacks total its past two outings. LB Nolan Smith has four of them.

On a downward note, although the Chiefs’ defense ranked eighth against the rush this season, from Game 12 onward the unit has allowed foes to average 5.1 yards a rush. And now KC will take on a team that has been averaging 6.6 a carry through the postseason.

More about the Eagles

Philadelphia has flourished since its Week 5 bye, winning 15 of 16 games, capped by its 55-23 thrashing of Washington in the NFC title game. The Eagles were 7-for-7 scoring TDs on first-and-goal possessions. No other team had more than five such scores in a game the past two years.

A key to the Eagles’ success has been winning the turnover battle. They are at plus-10 in the playoffs, and overall during their 15-1 run they are at plus-27.

Philadelphia is especially proficient at forcing fumbles. The Eagles tied for the league lead with 22 in the regular season and have had seven more in the postseason.

Fun fact: In 1953, Philadelphia not only had the league’s No. 1-ranked defense but also the top-ranked offense. Yet those Eagles failed to qualify for the postseason.

Another fun fact: In 1964, the Cleveland Browns won the NFL title despite having the league’s worst-rated defense. And in the championship game they shut out the Baltimore Colts, the league’s highest-scoring team, 27-0.

In summary

The Eagles have more than just Hurts and Barkley as playmakers. WR A.J. Brown is a potent deep threat and TE Dallas Goedert has been highly productive.

But that air game is going to hinge on Hurts unloading the ball quickly, much like he did last game, and not dilly-dallying as he did the game before when he was sacked seven times by the L.A. Rams. Now he’ll be facing a squad that’s had 10 sacks in two postseason games. Uh-oh!

Also, as good as the Eagles’ pass defense has been headed by whirlwind rookie DB Cooper DeJean and first-team All-Pro LB Zack Baun, opposing tight ends have thrived in the playoffs. In the Eagles’ three playoff games, a TE was their foes’ top pass catcher.

Thus, KC’s Travis Kelce seems likely to have a typically big day.

If KC can avoid losing the turnover battle they should make Super Bowl history. And considering KC has had only one giveaway in its past nine games there’s a good chance of that happening.

FORECAST: Chiefs 31, Eagles 23

LAST WEEK: 0-2 against the spread; 0-2 straight up

SEASON TOTAL: 27-23-4 ATS