NFL wagers: Which longshots are the best bets to make a title run?

Since the 1999 NFL season, when the out-of-nowhere St. Louis Rams won the Super Bowl, fans making futures wagers on teams to win the championship have frequently been able to cash in on long shots.

Sometimes bettors have profited by their team going all the way, or just winning the conference title, or other times when hedge bets are made against their team deep into the postseason.

This year there are some intriguing longshots that also seem capable of making postseason noise and offer plenty of thrills for their backers. More on them later.

About that Rams’ season

That dream campaign for the Rams started out in nightmare fashion when starting quarterback Trent Green suffered a season-ending knee injury 15 days before the opener. That prompted head coach Dick Vermeil to not so enthusiastically elevate backup Kurt Warner.

At age 28, Warner had yet to start an NFL game and was best known as the undrafted QB out of Northern Iowa who was cut by the Green Bay Packers before the 1994 season and then became a stock boy at an Iowa grocery store.

The betting public largely steered clear of making championship wagers on the Rams late that summer. But those who did could have gotten a ticket on them at 200-1 at the now long-gone Imperial Palace along the Las Vegas Strip. The Rams wound up going 13-3 and Warner evolved into a Hall of Famer.

Thus, he proved it’s not wise to automatically discard a team’s chances for success when a backup QB steps in.

And that wasn’t a fluke season

Much the same happened two seasons later when New England’s starting quarterback, Drew Bledsoe, was slobberknockered while scrambling for a first down in the second game of the season.

With a record of 0-2, coach Bill Belichick gave former sixth-round draft pick Tom Brady his first pro start. At that time bettors who had faith in this future Hall of Famer could have gotten New England at 150-1 odds to win the title, also at the Imperial Palace.

In his debut, Brady led the Patriots to a 44-13 win over Peyton Manning and the Colts as an 11½-point underdog. Three weeks later Brady and the Patriots again upset Indianapolis, this time 38-17 as a 10½-point dog en route to winning 11 of their final 14 games.

And in a closing bit irony, Brady led the Patriots to the title that season against Warner and the Rams.

More current times

The followings odds are courtesy of sportsoddshistory.com.

In 2007, the New York Giants were available at 50-1 as late as the wild-card round before beating the Patriots for the crown, And four years later the Giants were listed at 66-1 in Week 13 before moving on to again beat New England in the title game.

And in 2017, Philadelphia was a preseason 40-1 choice and also won the crown, against — you guessed it — New England.

Then four years later Cincinnati, coming off a last-place AFC North finish in QB Joe Burrow’s first season, had original preseason odds of 80-1. By the time regular-season play commenced the number reached 150-1. By Week 3, and with a 1-1 record, the odds ballooned to 200-1

Cincinnati eventually went on to win the AFC North and reach the Super Bowl before falling to the L.A. Rams. But Bengals fans who opted to hedge their bets and put money on L.A. in the final, could have at least gotten back their initial investment and likely somewhat more. And if they had been fortunate enough to wager on Cincinnati merely reaching the Super Bowl they were available at roughly 100-1.

And last year? Washington backers could have had the Commanders at 250-1 preceding Week 3. Not bad for a team that reached the NFC title game.

This year’s long- and semi-longshots worth a look, with odds courtesy of BetMGM:

San Francisco 20-1: Only two seasons ago the 49ers lost in overtime to Kansas City for the championship. Then came the post-Super Bowl hangover that often affects losing teams.

Now, thanks to last season’s fourth-place finish in the NFC West, San Francisco has the easiest schedule in the league based on the estimated wins for its foes. And it helps immensely that RB Christian McCaffrey doesn’t have a “Q” next to his name on the depth chart.

What also helps is that last year’s West champ, the L.A. Rams, play a much tougher schedule this season than last. Plus L.A.’s starting QB Matt Stafford, 37, has wrestled with a back injury all summer.

Houston 35-1: Whenever a division favorite is listed with Super Bowl odds this high, jump on the bandwagon.

Houston is the two-time defending AFC South champ behind QB C.J. Stroud, the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year. And in 2024 the Texans played in a division in which its rivals were a cumulative 15-36. So these Super odds seem extra super. What could put the Texans over the top is their elite secondary and a pair of stout edge rushers.

Chicago 40-1: The Bears finished 5-12 last season and were six games out of third place in the NFC Central, tied for the deepest any team has been in the cellar the past three seasons. But history indicates there still is hope for an instant turnaround. Especially with highly coveted new coach Ben Johnson.

Maybe Chicago will follow the path previously negotiated by the 2021 Bengals. That team, which finished seven games deep and last in its division a year earlier, rallied to reach the NFL title game behind Burrow, who was the league’s top overall draft pick in 2020. Chicago also enters this season with a second-year QB, Caleb Williams, who also was the league’s top overall pick a year earlier.

What’s not working in their favor, though, is that no rookie coach who took over a team with a losing record has gone on to win a title since 1945. That’s when Adam Walsh guided the Cleveland Rams to the championship.

Indianapolis 100-1: For bettors wanting a triple-digit underdog, this team seems the best choice.

It won’t be easy for the Colts to overtake Houston in the AFC South, but with ex-Giants veteran Daniel Jones now at QB, they have a shot now that wildly erratic and injury-prone Anthony Richardson will be on the sideline.

Jones will team with star RB Jonathan Taylor and the defense has had upgrades, including the secondary.

Heavy bets made at Westgate SuperBook

Jay Kornegay, a former long-time sportsbook boss at the Imperial Palace and now the vice president of marketing for the Westgate SuperBook, has relayed these highfalutin’ individual wagers made on longshots at his book this preseason.

• Jacksonville, $2,000 bet, 100-1 odds: At stake, $200K
• Minnesota, $2,500 bet, 40-1 odds: At stake, $100K
• N.Y. Jets, $500, bet, 200-1 odds: At stake, $100K
• L.A. Chargers, $1,500 bet, 40-1 odds: At stake, $60K
• Green Bay, $2,500 bet, 20-1 odds: At stake, $50K
• Dallas, $1,000 bet, 50-1 odds: At stake, $50K
• Denver, $1,075 bet, 40-1 odds: At stake, $45K

(The Green Bay and Dallas bets were made before the Cowboys’ blockbuster trade of Micah Parsons to the Packers).