Popular Bob's NFL Forecast for Week 1: Jets over Steelers as Rodgers struggles

Openers in the NFL conclude this weekend with 14 games. Here’s a closer look at the matchups. (2024 records in parentheses).

Sunday

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at N.Y. Jets (5-12), 11 a.m.

Steelers -2.5 (38 O/U)

The game features quarterbacks who will be facing the team they competed for last season — Aaron Rodgers with Pittsburgh and Justin Fields now a Jet.

Fields was 4-2 last season before being benched. This summer he played in two preseason games while getting comfortable with his new mates. Rodgers sat out exhibitions after signing late.

But maybe Rodgers would have been wise to get to know his teammates better in those exhibitions. Especially since his Week 1 performances have been crummy at best recently. In 2021, with Green Bay, he skipped summer games and then had his worst outing of the season (36.8 passer rating) in a 38-3 loss to New Orleans. A year later, also sitting out exhibitions, his Packers lost 23-7 to Minnesota. Not to mention his torn Achilles in 2023.

Forecast: Jets 19, Steelers 16

Tennessee Titans (3-14) at Denver Broncos (10-7), 2:05 p.m.

Broncos -9 (42.5 O/U)

Tennessee is turning to rookie QB Cam Ward, the first overall draft choice out of Miami, to help spur a team that tied for the worst record in 2024.

Denver went with a rookie QB last season in Bo Nix and came on like gangbusters after a 0-2 start to earn the team’s first playoff berth since 2015. And defensively, the Broncos finished seventh in yards allowed. Tennessee, FYI, ranked second, but 30th in points yielded, having given up a league-high seven special teams/defensive TDs.

Don’t expect much from Ward here. Since 2003, No. 1 QB selections who started a season opener as a rookie have gone 1-7-1 (2-6-1 ATS), with that victory coming last year by Chicago’s Caleb Williams against Tennessee. But the Bears totaled only 148 yards, the fewest for a winning team the past four seasons.

Forecast: Broncos 20, Titans 6

Detroit Lions (15-2) at Green Bay Packers (11-6), 2:25 p.m.

Packers -1 (47 O/U)

Both teams bolstered their defense since the end of last season, with Detroit getting back standouts who were injured early in the year and the Packers acquiring DE Micah Parsons. But will Parsons play (questionable, back)?

Forecast: Lions 27, Packers 19

Baltimore Ravens (12-5) at Buffalo Bills (13-4), 6:20 p.m.

Ravens -1 (50.5 O/U)

The teams split their two games last season, but the Bills won when it counted most in vanquishing the visiting Ravens in the division playoffs. In Week 4, though, Baltimore gave visiting Buffalo its most one-sided loss of the past three seasons, 35-10. Home field gives the Bills the edge.

Forecast: Bills 28, Ravens 24

Miami Dolphins (8-9) at Indianapolis Colts (9-8), 11 a.m.

Pick ‘em (46 O/U)

Forecast: Dolphins 24, Colts 20. Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa missed last year’s 16-10 loss at Indianapolis.

Arizona Cardinals (8-9) at New Orleans (5-12), 11 a.m.

Cardinals -6.5 (43.5 O/U)

Forecast: Cardinals 27, Saints 9. Saints QB Spencer Rattler was 0-6 as a starter last year, at one point in those games directing 38 straight full possessions without a TD. Horrors!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) at Atlanta Falcons (8-9), 11 a.m.

Buccaneers -1 (47 O/U)

Forecast: Bucs 28, Falcons 20. Atlanta swept Tampa Bay last season, but with Kirk Cousins at QB. He won’t start Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) at Cleveland Browns (3-14), 11 a.m.

Bengals -4.5 (48 O/U)

Forecast: Bengals 31, Browns 14

Carolina Panthers (5-12) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13), 11 a.m.

Jaguars -3.5 (47 O/U)

Forecast: Panthers 20, Jaguars 17

N.Y. Giants (3-14) at Washington Commanders (12-5), 11 a.m.

Commanders -6 (45.5 O/U)

Forecast: Commanders 34, Giants 24

Las Vegas Raiders (4-13) at New England Patriots (4-13), 11 a.m.

Patriots -2.5 (44 O/U)

Forecast: Patriots 24, Raiders 23

San Francisco 49ers (6-11) at Seattle Seahawks (10-7), 2:05 p.m.

49ers -2 (43 O/U)

Forecast: Seahawks 23, 49ers 21. San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey was a late addition to the injury report (questionable, calf).

Houston Texans (10-7) at L.A. Rams (10-7), 2:25 p.m.

Rams -3 (43.5 O/U)

Forecast: Texans 26, Rams 19. Houston has a strong secondary. Rams QB Matt Stafford doesn’t have a strong back.

Monday

Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Chicago Bears (5-12), 6:15 p.m.

Vikings 1 (43.5 O/U)

Can’t trust a Vikings offense breaking in a first-time starter at QB in J.J. McCarthy on the road. Especially since standout receiver Justin Jefferson could be less than 100 percent (hamstring).

Forecast: Bears 19, Vikings 16