Preseason poll reaction: Mountain West media are (generally) bullish on teams they cover

LAS VEGAS, Nevada – Preseason polls have one simple, fatal flaw: you can’t be everywhere all at once. Meaning no matter how much research somebody does, no matter how many different teams they visit, no matter how media guides they rip through, it’s just about impossible to predict each team’s performance down to a tee.

In that vein, the Journal polled available Mountain West beat reporters, broadcasters and radio personalities at Mountain West Media Days on Wednesday. The topic? Where the teams they cover were ranked in the preseason media poll -- Boise State was picked to win the 12-teamn league, and New Mexico was picked last -- with those respective teams’ biggest strengths and weaknesses in mind.

The goal? Getting a better read on whether the preseason poll is all that accurate, and what could happen in a conference season that’s anything but determined.

Responses have been lightly edited for clarity. Starting at the top:

1. Boise State

Head coach: Andy Avalos (3rd season)

2022 record: 10-4 (8-3)

2023 over/under win total: 7.5

Jordan Kaye, Bronco Nation News on ranking: “I thought it was pretty accurate. I look at (the fact) they have almost every offensive starter coming back from a team that made the Mountain West championship last year. So, I think it’s pretty clear that they are the most talented team in the Mountain West right now. If that comes to fruition, you know, we’ll see.”

Biggest strength? “Their offensive skill positions. They’ve got (quarterback) Taylen Green coming back. They’ve got probably two of the best running backs in the conference in Ashton Jeanty and George Holani. And they’ve got a bunch of young receivers who I think can probably all have a pretty significant role this season. I think it’s definitely the offense with the most firepower in the Mountain West this year.”

Biggest weakness? “I’d say probably their defensive front. Last year, they struggled to get pressure on quarterbacks a bunch and then they lost Scott Matlock, who was their kind of all-everything defensive tackle. Losing him, they’ve got to replace a lot of guys in the trenches. I think it’s still kind of up-in-the-air if they’re gonna be able to stop the run this year.”

2. Air Force

Head coach: Troy Calhoun (17th season)

2022 record: 10-3 (5-3)

2023 over/under win total: 8.5

Brent Briggeman, Colorado Springs Gazette on ranking: “I think (the ranking is accurate) … Their defense is loaded with experience and that’s kinda been the variable through the years. If they can defend – because they’re always going to run the ball effectively, eat clock – if they can have a defense that can limit the opposing team that already has limited possessions, if they’re able to even condense those, get some three-and-outs, the offense becomes that much more effective because it gets right back on the ball. And I think their defense is as good as it’s been in a long time, and that’s saying a lot because they were extremely good last year.”

Biggest strength? “Defensive experience. I think they’ve got key guys at each position, two linebackers coming back. They’ve got (defensive lineman) Payton Zdroik up front, who had a tackle for loss in like seven straight games to end the season. And then their secondary. They’ve got three guys who could have been All-Mountain West preseason guys. So, a lot of talent. Not just experience, but talent, which Air Force doesn’t always have. This year they’ve got it.”

Biggest weakness? “Just the unknown in the offensive backfield. They don’t have a returning quarterback – they don't have anybody who’s really played significant time at quarterback, which is a big deal. And then they lose the nation’s leading rusher in Brad Roberts. So I think they have plenty of options there but until someone proves it, it's an unknown.”

3. Fresno State

Head coach: Jeff Tedford (2nd consecutive, 5th season total)

2022 record: 10-4 (7-1)

2023 over/under win total: 8.5

Cameron Worrell, Bulldog Sports Network on ranking: “Picked third, defending Mountain West champs, I kinda get it. (Quarterback) Jake Haener’s gone, all these offensive weapons are gone. So I think people think they’re gonna take a step back. (They) just missed out on being picked second behind Air Force – I think it’s fair. Not a lot of people know a lot about what this Fresno State offense is going to be about. They know more about Boise and Air Force, so, yeah, kinda makes sense.”

Biggest strength? “The defense. Two really good cornerbacks, the defense was playing as well as anybody on the west coast at the end of last year – a lot of those pieces are back. Second year in (defensive coordinator) Kevin Coyle’s system, so I think you’re gonna see even an improvement from what they were doing last year.”

Biggest weakness? “Not a lot of experience at the quarterback position and not a lot of experience in the offensive skill position(s): receiver, running back, they’re all going to be mainly new pieces. Eric Brooks is the most seasoned veteran receiver and he was kind of the fourth guy last year, so it’s gonna take them some time to build that cohesiveness as an offensive unit.”

4. San Diego State

Head coach: Brady Hoke (4th season)

2022 record: 7-6 (5-3)

2023 over/under wins: 6.5

Kirk Kenney, San Diego Union Tribune on ranking: “Fourth was about where I would have predicted them … I think the Vegas books have (6.5) as the over/under for wins. That sounds about right, so I guess fourth place was about right.”

Biggest strength? “They have a quarterback (Jalen Mayden) coming back, that switched from being (a) safety, who showed some promise. But he needs ot progress.”

Biggest weakness? “They were 7-6 last season and lost a lot of guys up front on defense. Questions on offense, they were inconsistent last year … They lost a couple of wide receivers who were very productive. So they have to fill some roles there.”

5. San Jose State

Head coach: Brent Brennan (7th season)

2022 record: 7-5 (5-3)

2023 over/under win total: 5.5

Vic Aquino, SB Nation on ranking: “In terms of the writers who have gotten to know them, and I’ve gotten pretty familiar with the beat writers all around, it’s a pretty wide range. They got picked all the way from three to 11. For me, knowing them and just looking at them relatively speaking, obviously I’m gonna think they (should be) a little higher. At five, I think it’s fair. But since it’s kind of a wide open season – since a lot of the teams have washed out with new lineups – I’d say they’re quite a bit higher.”

“But I think it’s more than fair that they got put at five. Because every year before that? They were seven, eight, nine.”

Biggest strength? “Definitely (quarterback Chevan Cordeiro) because he’s – you know, you hate the word, but he’s such a cerebral, physical player. I mean, he’s actually a lot stronger from last year to this year. He really is, I think, gonna take the bull by the horns here.

“But their running game has kinda been okay (in the past)? This year, they have at least two guys that are gonna probably blow the doors off: Quali Conley and Kairee Robinson. From that point, they’re historically known not to be a running team, definitely more of a passing team, but you’re going to definitely get that blend and balance here.”

Biggest weakness? “It’s probably the linebackers. I mean, they’re all really athletic and fast but probably a little bit on the smaller side. If you look across the board and compare rosters here, they’re definitely on the smaller side. So you kind of wonder how they’re gonna hold up during the course of the year, especially with their first four or five games (being) a gauntlet – USC, Air Force, etc. That’s a lot to go through.”

6. Wyoming

Head coach: Craig Bohl (10th season)

2022 record: 8-5 (5-3)

2023 over/under win total: 5.5

Alex Taylor, wyosports.com on ranking: “Felt like it was a little low. I thought just with their defense it’d probably be a little higher, but obviously we’re kind of going off their offense last year so I guess I’m not completely shocked. I had them higher but it is to be expected.”

Biggest strength? “The defense. Defensive line for sure, they got a very solid group and their secondary should be a little bit better than last year. And then obviously, (preseason Mountain West defensive player of the year linebacker) Easton Gibbs.”

Biggest weakness? “Quarterback play. I mean, (quarterback) Andrew Peasley’s going into his second year – biggest thing is gonna be consistency. He had some really good stretches. He had some really bad stretches at times. It doesn’t have to be lights out or anything but just getting enough from the passing offense to kind of supplement the running game, which should be enough to kind of put them over the hump.”

7. Colorado State

Head coach: Jay Norvell (2nd season)

2022 record: 3-9 (3-5)

2023 over/under win total: 4.5

Justin Michael, DNVR.com on ranking: “It’s a fair projection. I think that there’s reason for optimism when you look at the talent they’ve got – three players represented on the (preseason All-Mountain West) team, you bring back a bunch of starters. But I mean, they haven’t had a winning season since 2017. So you’re kind of in wait-until-we-see-it mode with CSU. Right in the middle of the pack makes sense to me.

“I think there was a clear-cut top two teams with Boise State and Air Force; I think you have a clear bottom with Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico, and then just kind of everybody in between. They’re probably all going to be within a game or two. I do think they’ll be a little better than seventh, but I don’t think they were screwed or have anything to complain about.”

Biggest strength? “More continuity. It was a weird situation last year with (CSU head coach) Jay Norvell coming into town, they’re basically trying to mix the roster (between) guys he brought in with the old regime at CSU. And they had double-digit guys transfer out in the first month of the season after the games had started.

“They played most of the conference slate with 59 scholarship players. Just from a depth standpoint alone, they should be much more competitive. But I think the fact that you’re in year two of the system, your quarterback’s more experienced, you have the best offensive player in the Mountain West in (receiver) Tory Horton, in my opinion. It’s really just continuity and depth.”

Biggest weakness? “They had the worst offensive line in the country last year, and you’re relying on four transfers to come in and fix a lot of issues. Now, it could very well work out (but) I think it’s fair to say it could very easily crash and burn and kill any reason for optimism you have. They had the most missed runblock assignments in the country last year, they gave up the most sacks per game. It was brutal.

“It’s fair to point that out and they just kind of have that stink to them (right now) … you start to reach that point where it’s just like you expect just expect things to go wrong. And that’s where CSU has kind of been for about five, six years.”

8. Utah State

Head coach: Blake Anderson (3rd season)

2022 record: 6-7 (5-3)

2023 over/under win total: 5.5

Craig Hislop, KNVU Radio (Logan) on ranking: “I would have picked us in the middle or seventh. So I think that’s about right.”

Biggest strength? “Offensive line, we lost a few guys but there’s some backups that can play … we got some people on defense. But I’m just not sure anything’s jumping out at me in that way.”

Biggest weakness? “Most people would wonder, how’s the offense gonna be? … They gave up a lot on defense with the (run game). They gotta figure out a way to get that going.”

9. UNLV

Head coach: Barry Odom (1st season)

2022 record: 5-7 (3-5)

2023 over/under win total: 6.5

Andy Yamashita, Las Vegas Review-Journal on ranking: “They got a first place vote – somehow. No idea how that happened.

“I think they could surprise some people. I think ninth is probably accurate considering we haven’t seen them play yet. But I could see them making a bowl game potentially, they were right on the cusp of that last year. Obviously, I don’t see them winning a championship. I could certainly see them getting bowl eligible, which for them would be a huge achievement.”

Biggest strength? “The strength has probably got to be the defense right now. They kept some of their contributors on that side of the ball, who probably had opportunities to go other places if they wanted to. They’re installing a new defense but Odom’s a defensive coach, he was a DC at Arkansas, he’s from that side of the ball and he’s brought his kind of protegee – if that’s how you put it – (defensive coordinator Mike Scherer was) his linebackers coach at Arkansas … he’ll be getting his first shot as a DC, which could mean that there’ll be some growing pains there but that looks like more of a sure bet than the offense right now.”

Biggest weakness? “There’s a lot of unknowns with this team. We don’t know how they’re going to adapt to the Go-Go (offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s hybrid option-spread offense). We don’t know how sure (Scherer) will do as the DC. We don’t know how Brennan Marion will do in his first job as the OC. There’s a lot of questions. (Quarterback) Doug Brumfield’s health is huge in this – his backup, Harrison Bailey, hit the transfer portal this season.

“They lost their leading pass rusher this season in (defensive linemen) Adam Plant Jr. He’s gone. So where are you gonna get that kind of pressure from? Like I said – lots of questions with this team.”

10. Hawaii

Head coach: Timmy Chang (2nd season)

2022 record: 3-10 (2-6)

2023 over/under: 3.5

Joshua Pacheco, ESPN Honolulu on ranking: “It’s kind of about right. 10th (place), I had them 11th. It’s really kind of negligible at that point. You’re basically looking at a team that’s still rebuilding and that rebuilding process is going to take a few years so this is pretty reflective of that.”

Biggest strength? “Their defensive secondary. You bring in a guy like (Wyoming transfer corner) Cam Stone to a secondary that was somewhat young last year but looked very good. I think we can expect to see that continue this year. That defense will have to keep Hawaii in games.”

Biggest weakness? “How will the run-and-shoot offense look? Everybody’s hyping it up but we don’t know how it’s gonna look until they play the games. Weakness, maybe question mark is the best way to put it because you just don’t have an idea of how it’s gonna look in week one and beyond.”

11. Nevada

Head coach: Ken Wilson (2nd season)

2022 record: 2-10 (0-8)

2023 over/under win total: 4.5

Shannon Kelly, Nevada Sports Net on ranking: “Last year they didn’t win any Mountain West games. So they have to earn their respect back from the conference to get back to a place where they once were. But this is a group that wants to win a lot of games this year. Head coach Ken Wilson came in his first year, he didn’t have a lot of returners on his roster that first season and now they’re building back to what they were in their understanding (of) the culture that Wilson wants them to buy into.”

Biggest strength? “Linebackers, with Drew Watts, Naki Mateialona and Oregon transfer Jackson LaDuke, who was also a Nevada native – Wilson recruited him when he was at Oregon. Bringing him in and between those three, I would say that’s going to be their strongest, deepest position.”

Biggest weakness? “I would say offensive line. Aaron Frost, who was one of the returners, transferred to Arizona State. Grant Stark also transferred to Oregon State. And they just don’t have a lot of guys who have a lot of snaps and a lot of repetitions. So if they want to be able to run the ball, that’s gonna be tough if they don’t have the experience. But with Angus McClure – he’s back for his third stint as their offensive line coach – I think he can definitely get them back to that place.”

12. New Mexico

Head coach: Danny Gonzales (4th season)

2022 record: 2-10 (0-8)

2023 over/under win total: 3.5

Sean Reider, Albuquerque Journal on ranking: Preseason polls don’t mean much, right? I expect some steady improvement on both sides of the ball, but getting voted last is more than fair at this point.

Biggest strength? Tough to call at this point. Can you really be all in on a defense that lost all seven of their leading tacklers in 2022, even if that’s a slightly misleading stat? Can you really be in on an offense trying to rebound from a brutal two-year stretch of finishing at or near the bottom of the country in most major categories?

I’ll say (like I have before) that I really like what I saw out of the running backs and wide receivers this spring. Expect a varied receiver group to be used creatively in the passing game and a running back room that will be ultra-competitive, with some strong options for a preferred bellcow.”

Biggest weakness? Also tough to call? There’s a world where the offensive line could be a real strength of the team and there’s a world where things could get hairy real quick. How they progress and gel through the first few weeks of the season will be largely telling