Reider: Mountain West football predicted order of finish

For the 15th straight year, Boise State was picked to win the Mountain West in the league's preseason poll.

And for the 15th straight year, that was the only thing most could agree on.

The Mountain West released its annual preseason poll Wednesday, with only Boise State (35) and UNLV (4) receiving votes to win the league. New Mexico was picked 11th and Nevada 12th for the second-straight year.

Here's the poll:

1. Boise State (35 first place votes)

2. UNLV (4)

3. San Jose State

4. Colorado State

5. Fresno State

6. Air Force

7. Hawaii

8. San Diego State

9. Utah State

10. Wyoming

11. New Mexico

12. Nevada

Here’s Journal staff writer Sean Reider’s predicted order, with one thing he likes (and one thing he doesn’t) for each team in the league:

1. Boise State

Why they’re here: They’re ultra-talented, deep and coming off a College Football Playoff appearance. The Broncos are the class of the Mountain West, and should be picked as such until they (or somebody else) proves otherwise.

One thing I like: The offensive line. Life after Ashton Jeanty will surely have its pitfalls, but a projected starting group with Kage Casey, Tyler Keinath, Mason Randolph, Roger Carreon and Hall Schmidt enters this season as the near-unquestioned best line in the Mountain West.

One thing I don’t like: The target on their back. Everybody always gets up to play Boise State — how amplified will that quality be this year? Not having the Heisman runner-up won’t help on the nights where they need a little something extra to snake out a win on the road, either.

2. UNLV

Why they’re here: Last year, it was Boise State, UNLV and the rest of the league — close calls aside, both went undefeated against the rest of the conference. This year? I’m not sure a new-look UNLV will finish the season as the clear No. 2, so 2A might be a more suitable label here. But the talent is still excellent and I trust coach Dan Mullen to steer the Rebels back toward contention.

One thing I like: The level of talent they’ve brought in via the transfer portal, from former four stars like edge rusher Elias Rudolph (Miami) to more unheralded, but still sound, players like defensive back Andrew Powdrell (Montana State).

One thing I don’t like: A severe lack of returning production. The Rebels are more or less starting fresh on both lines and bring back only two starters across both sides of the ball. They might’ve brought in enough talent to be able to contend, but it’s probably the biggest red flag among the clear top three teams.

3. San Jose State

Why they’re here: The 2B to UNLV’s 2A — although they’re just barely behind, at least in my eyes. Entering second-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo’s second season, SJSU brings back a ton on both sides of the ball and has enough difference-makers to make a serious run at a league title.

One thing I like: The schedule. The Spartans do play Air Force, but miss Boise State, UNLV and Colorado State. And outside of playing at Texas on Sept. 6, SJSU’s nonconference (vs. Central Michigan, vs. Idaho and at Stanford) is very, very gettable.

One thing I don’t like: There’s isn't a lot to dislike here, and this is a product of how SJSU’s offense is structured, but you’d like to see the Spartans average a little more than the 88.08 rushing yards per game they put up last season.

4. Air Force

Why they’re here: After they were picked to finish fourth last summer, the Falcons stumbled out the gate before rallying to a 5-7 finish. But Air Force’s abysmal start had far more to do with a major loss in experience than anything else — which shouldn’t be an issue this year. Bank on the Falcons to get back to their winning ways this season.

One thing I like: Last year, head coach Troy Calhoun admitted he thought it was going to take some time before Air Force meshed. He was correct: The Falcons struggled to a 1-7 start before finding any significant traction on offense. Having most of those lumps out of the way entering this season should be a major plus as Air Force tries to climb back to the top of the league.

One thing I don’t like: Once again, the schedule. Air Force hosts Boise State and hits the road for games at UNLV, San Jose State and Colorado State on top of a nonconference schedule (vs. Army, at Navy, at UConn) that projects to be far more formidable than it’s been in the not-so-distant past. I think the Falcons have enough to get back to contention, but this is probably the hardest league slate for any team this season, and should be recognized as such.

5. Colorado State

Why they’re here: After a six-year bowl drought, head coach Jay Norvell led Colorado State to eight wins last season — the program’s best mark since 2013. The Rams should stay in the upper half of the league, but might be a notch below truly contending after losing some key players on defense.

One thing I like: Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, the face of an offense that returns plenty. Is he poised for his best year yet? And could he stamp his name on the Rams’ record books for good?

One thing I don’t like: Tons of turnover on defense, especially in the secondary. One year after the Rams dialed back their offense to shield its defense, will they have to do much of the same? Or did Colorado State bring in enough via the transfer portal to prevent that?

6. Hawaii

Why they’re here: I’m not banking on Hawaii finishing in the league’s upper third. But with everything they return — and the progress they’ve seemingly made over the last three seasons under head coach and program legend Timmy Chang — I’d be surprised if they didn’t finish in the league’s upper half. And for what it’s worth, I felt like it was a relative coin flip for upper positioning between the Rainbow Warriors and Colorado State.

One thing I like: The receivers, particularly Pofele Ashlock. After catching 61 passes for 629 yards and six touchdowns last season, bank on him to have another productive year out of perhaps the most talented room on the roster.

One thing I don’t like: Micah Alejado was magnificent in his first career start against New Mexico in Hawaii's season finale. But will there be growing pains as he takes on the week-to-week starting role as a sophomore?

7. Wyoming

Why they’re here: After a deeply unsatisfying 3-9 season, I think Wyoming is capable of navigating a wild schedule and making a bowl this year, although I’m not sure they can do much more. I also think there might only be an extra win or two this year to better last year’s record — how patient will a undyingly loyal fanbase be?

One thing I like: This is a more seasoned offense than last season, particularly up front. Plus, it's hard to see the Cowboys getting hit as bad as they did with injuries as they did in 2024.

One thing I don’t like: Let’s go with two things: Similar to their rivals down south in Fort Collins, the Cowboys lost a lot on defense (even if said defense wasn’t all that great.) And even if running backs are relatively easy to replace, I would have a slightly easier time picking Wyoming higher if they brought back Harrison Waylee.

8. San Diego State

Why they’re here: The Aztecs finished 3-9 in Sean Lewis’ first season, notching the program’s lowest win total since the Chuck Long era came to an end in 2008. There’s no doubt that Lewis, the former head coach at Kent State, can get programs on track with an uber creative offense. It is, however, worth questioning if SDSU can make a bowl this year.

One thing I like: Defensive end Trey White. After finishing with an impressive 12.5 sacks last season, I give the San Diego native a ton of credit for staying put when he probably could’ve jumped to a Power 4 program. Look for him to continue powering the Aztecs’ defense as a junior.

One thing I don’t like: All the lumps starting quarterback Danny O’Neil took as a true freshman last season seemed like an investment for the future. The benefits of said investment will now pay out at Wisconsin after O’Neil transferred in the offseason, and the Aztecs are left to start something completely new under center. How will that go?

9. Utah State

Why they’re here: Among the bottom third of the league, I might have the most reservations about Utah State’s roster. I also have probably the most confidence in head coach Bronco Mendenhall to wring the shirt dry and get just about everything he can out of this team. It’s hard to see this year being anything more than the start of a rebuild, but expect the Aggies to be competitive most weeks.

One thing I like: Quarterback Bryson Barnes. His 856 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions isn’t jaw-dropping production, but I really liked what he gave the Aggies last season in relief of an injured Spencer Petras. Having a head coach that’s no stranger to developing dual-threat QBs ought to help, too, and I’d be surprised if Barnes didn’t end the season in the upper third of league signal callers.

One thing I don’t like: The defense. Utah State returns safety Ike Larsen and brought in some solid transfers on all three levels, but it’s hard to see this team reliably getting stops (sound familiar?)

10. Fresno State

Why they’re here: Easily the toughest team to predict. Because I can see a world where the Bulldogs punch well above their weight under first-year head coach Matt Entz, a former two-time FCS champion in the same position at North Dakota State. I could also see them being a bit of a mess given all they lost on both sides of the ball.

One thing I like: Quarterback E.J. Warner. The Bulldogs will likely miss Mikey Keene, but they could’ve done much worse than adding the former Rice and Temple signal caller. I also think the defense could be sneaky good this season.

One thing I don’t like: The first half of the schedule isn’t too bad, but it figures to be a chore for a program starting anew. The Bulldogs open at Kansas, then host what figures to be a good Georgia Southern team before playing at Oregon State and Hawaii with an FCS game wedged in between. 1-5 is a real possibility here.

11. New Mexico

Why they’re here: There’s been plenty of good at the start of the Jason Eck era in Albuquerque. But for the second year in a row, a new coaching staff will be working with an overhauled roster. There’s a lot of room for growth, and yet, it’s hard to pick a fresh start all too high.

One thing I like: The running backs. FCS transfers Scottre Humphrey (Montana State), Damon Bankston (Weber State) and Deshaun Buchanan (Idaho) headline a room that might just be the most talented among the league’s projected bottom three.

One thing I don’t like: Quarterback uncertainty. This is the first time in a few years where UNM hasn’t been able to identify a clear-cut starter during spring practice. And will the best of either of the three contenders — Jack Layne, James Laubstein and Cole Welliver — be enough to help the Lobos shock the conference?

12. Nevada

Why they’re here: Well, there has to be a last place team, right? Nevada is 2-21 in the Mountain West over the last three years. That’s not to say the losing will keep up — I’m inclined to think the Wolf Pack could actually end up being a pleasant surprise — but you have to see it to believe it at this point.

One thing I like: The offensive skill players, particularly wide receiver Marcus Bellon and running back Herschel Turner. And if he breaks fall camp as the bell cow, I think the latter could threaten for a spot on an All-Mountain West team.

One thing I don’t like: The losses in the secondary. Nevada is missing some good players from last year in cornerback Michael Coats and safety Kitan Crawford — who’s replacing them?