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UNM football notebook: How much help does UNM need to play in the Mountain West Championship?
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AIR FORCE ACADEMY, Colo. — Jason Eck stared ahead in a postgame news conference and smiled slightly at the question’s framing, a sentence that hasn't been said to New Mexico coaches often (if at all) in the program’s up-and-down history.
…this sets up what probably could be called the biggest regular-season game in UNM football history…
This, of course, was stated after the Lobos’ dominant 20-3 win over Air Force on Saturday night at Falcon Stadium. As for the biggest regular season game in UNM football history?
That, arguably, is UNM’s regular-season finale against San Diego State (1:30 p.m.) on Friday at University Stadium.
“Love big games,” Eck said, that smile finally on full display.
And make no mistake – Friday is a big one. But even if the Lobos beat SDSU, they don’t control their destiny for a long-awaited, near-mythical Mountain West Championship berth.
So, exactly how much help does UNM need to get into the title game?
First, a look at the top of the standings entering the final week of the regular season:
San Diego State (9-2 overall, 6-1 in MWC play)
Boise State (7-4, 5-2)
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New Mexico (8-3, 5-2)
UNLV (9-2, 5-2)
Thanks to UNLV and Utah State beating Hawaii and Fresno State (now both at 4-3 in league play) this weekend, the standings are a little cleaner than they were before. And now – at least for Lobo fans – the games to watch this weekend are SDSU at UNM (duh), Boise State at Utah State and UNLV at Nevada.
A quick note: Before we get into some scenarios, I’m choosing to not delve into what might happen if UNM loses to SDSU – and that’s a real possibility. The Lobos technically wouldn’t be eliminated by losing, but their odds are far, far greater if they win. Let’s just keep it simple with that possibility instead of wading into what could be an incredibly messy championship picture at 5-3.
Without further ado, the scenarios if UNM beats SDSU:
If Boise State and UNLV lose…
Easy scenario. At 6-2 each, UNM and SDSU would play for the Mountain West title at University Stadium; hosting is determined by a head-to-head result, which the Lobos would have in hand. This is the scenario fans should root for.
If Boise State wins and UNLV loses…
That would knock out UNLV and set up a three-way tie at 6-2, which would be sorted out by “a composite average of selected predictive and results-based computer metrics on Nov. 30,” Mountain West spokesperson Javan Hedlund told the Journal earlier this month. “The top two teams in those metrics would be in the game and then we would use the head-to-head to determine the host.”
So, because all three teams would have 1-1 records against each other, it would go to the computers. The Mountain West currently lists metrics like Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, ESPN’s Strength of Record (SOR) rankings, Faktor Sports’ KPI rankings and SportsSource to help in the event of tiebreakers.
Where does UNM stand in comparison to SDSU and Boise State in those rankings? Excluding SportsSource (the Journal does not have access to those rankings) here’s a look at the most recently available rankings:
Connelly SP+
- 43. San Diego State
- 55. Boise State
- 70. New Mexico
ESPN SOR
- 43. San Diego State
- 47. New Mexico
- 56. Boise State
KPI
- 41. San Diego State
- 45. Boise State
- 54. New Mexico
With the exception of SOR, the metrics don’t paint the most promising picture for UNM. Let’s call it a SDSU-Boise State title game in San Diego.
If Boise State loses and UNLV wins…
That would set up a three-way tie at 6-2 between UNM, SDSU and UNLV. The Lobos would host by virtue of its 2-0 record against the Aztecs and Rebels, with its opponent determined by the following rankings:
Connelly SP+
- 43. San Diego State
- 52. UNLV
ESPN SOR
- 42. UNLV
- 43. San Diego State
KPI
- 41. San Diego State
- 43. UNLV
With the Aztecs’ 2-1 edge in the available metrics, let’s call it and say UNM hosts SDSU in this scenario.
If Boise State and UNLV win…
Hoo boy. That’s a four-way tie at 6-2, and it's going to the computers once again.
Connelly SP+
- 43. San Diego State
- 54. UNLV
- 55. Boise State
- 70. New Mexico
ESPN SOR
- 42. UNLV
- 43. San Diego State
- 47. New Mexico
- 56. Boise State
KPI
- 41. San Diego State
- 43. UNLV
- 45. Boise State
- 54. New Mexico
The most likely matchup from this scenario: UNLV vs. SDSU. UNM would’ve beaten both those teams, so that’s an especially tough pill to swallow for Lobo fans, players and coaches.
Long story short: UNM could really, really use a Boise State loss to clean things up. Which means the Lobos could really use Bronco Mendenhall and Utah State to close with a win at home.
Consider that just as big a game as the one UNM’s playing this week.
“I know this,” Eck added. “We control our own destiny to finish 6-2 in the league, which will tie for the best record. And you know what? That’ll be a heck of an accomplishment.
“So we got to focus on what we can control – we’ll see what happens with the other stuff. I’m pretty lucky, a lot of times things work out in life if everything goes well. But if it doesn’t, we’ll hang our heads high.”
A defensive masterclass
How good was UNM’s defense Saturday? A few statistics and notes:
-The Lobos’ defense held Air Force to its lowest point total (3) in series history. The Falcons had only ever scored in the single digits against UNM once before, a 21-6 Lobo win in 1961.
-UNM held Air Force to 110 rushing yards on 2.3 yards per carry. The Falcons had not run for less than 110 yards or less since putting up 108 in a 34-24 loss to Navy on Oct. 5, 2019.
-Air Force entered Saturday averaging 405.4 yards of total offense per game. UNM held the Falcons to just 161.
-Air Force entered Saturday with only 11 sacks allowed. The Lobos made four on Falcons’ quarterbacks Kemper Hodges and Josh Johnson.
-Air Force remains the best Mountain West team converting third downs (48.55%) this season. With only five conversions on 13 attempts Saturday, UNM held the Falcons roughly 10% below their season average.
“We knew, coming into (Saturday), we were gonna have to be the most physical team,” linebacker Mercury Swaim said Saturday. “And we knew if we could do that, we would dominate the line of scrimmage and dominate them overall.”
Consider that accomplished.
Laubstein’s return
Eck isn’t exactly one to hide his emotions, especially during a game. But few moments this season have fired UNM’s first-year head coach up as much as a set of late runs – a third- and fourth-down conversion – from backup quarterback James Laubstein.
Why? In a lot of respects, they weren’t supposed to happen.
Laubstein left UNM’s 40-35 win at UNLV on Nov. 1 with a lower body injury, which Eck said was diagnosed as a “crack” in his left leg. The initial prognosis: The 6-foot-3, 211-pound senior would be out for the rest of the season, a brutal blow for a player that carved out a strong role.
“And then he kept working,” Eck said.
After a little time, Laubstein was considered doubtful for the Air Force game, but “maybe he’ll have a good chance for San Diego State,” Eck added. Then he returned to practice Tuesday before playing the Falcons and threw – but didn’t run.
Wednesday, he threw and ran. “And the doctors cleared him,” Eck said. “He had some kind of crack, but he’s coming back (and) plays three weeks, 21 days later. He’s a tough sucker … Those were big-time elite runs, man.
“I mean, he’s a warrior.”
A new ‘black hoodie of death?’
Much has been made of Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer’s “black hoodie of death.” And for good reason – the Crimson Tide was previously 16-0 when DeBoer wore both the short-sleeve and long-sleeve versions of the hoodie over the last two seasons, only falling for the first time in a home loss to Oklahoma last week.
Per Yahoo Sports, Alabama has seven of the Nike Dri-FIT hoodies tucked away in a secret location in the Tide’s team facility. Only in college football.
Eck didn’t say if he has one or more of the black Nike hoodie he’s worn for UNM’s last five games (it’d be hard to imagine he couldn’t get another if he asked, though.) But lo and behold, UNM is 5-0 over that stretch when Eck wears the black hoodie he debuted in a 24-22 win over Nevada Oct. 18.
“I’m superstitious,” he said. “We had a three-game winning streak (where) I wore the same outfit for all three of those games, and then we lost to San Jose State (and Boise State) and I switched to this one.”
Has it taken on a life of its own? Not quite to the extent that it has among Alabama fans, players and coaches, but it feels safe to say there’s something there.
“I actually (thought about it),” Layne said. “Pregame, I was wondering if he was gonna wear something red.”
(To be clear, Saturday night at Falcon Stadium was definitely hoodie weather. It was definitely not the week prior when UNM played Colorado State at University Stadium: “I was sweating,” Eck laughed.)
For what it’s worth, Eck also has some ties to DeBoer beyond black hoodie streaks. When Eck was an assistant at Western Illinois in 2012, DeBoer was the offensive coordinator and receivers coach at Southern Illinois, and the two often saw each other while recruiting Chicago.
“He’s really talkative. He loves to talk,” Eck said with a smile of the former Washington coach. “Maybe he’s gotten a little bit quieter now that he’s such a big wig down there and probably tries to stay low. But he’d love to chat you up at the schools when you’re recruiting.”
