UNM football: Three keys and a prediction as the Lobos seek first conference win against Nevada

New Mexico hosts Nevada on Saturday at University Stadium, the first meeting between the programs since 2023. Three keys, a prediction — plus some other odds and ends — entering UNM’s first Homecoming under head coach Jason Eck:

1. Contain Dylan LaBarbera

If only because completely stopping him seems a little too farfetched.

That’s because LaBarbera, a once-unheralded junior college transfer, has been something of a revelation for Nevada this season. The junior defensive end has an FBS-best 14.5 tackles for loss, a league-leading 5.5 sacks and a team-high 51 total tackles through six games — all at a relatively undersized 6-foot-1 and 248 pounds.

How?

“I think he creates a different set of problems for offensive linemen because he can get underneath them and they probably don’t anticipate the amount of force he’s able to generate,” Nevada head coach Jeff Choate said in September. “A lot of (the) plays he makes are flat-out effort plays. They have nothing to do with technique. They have nothing to do with (the) call or scheme.

“Just his desire to go make a play.”

Of course, that desire presents myriad problems for UNM. For as good as LaBarbera is, he also plays opposite another productive defensive end in Jonathan Maldonado (21 total tackles, 3.5 sacks, one interception); avoiding LaBarbera in the run game might not be the best course of action. And as the numbers show, avoiding him on passing downs seems like a relative impossibility.

But the decisions the Lobos do make to mitigate LaBarbera will be critical.

“We gotta do a good job — whether we gotta chip (LaBarbera), whether we gotta double team him, whether we gotta run away from him,” Eck said Tuesday. “We gotta make sure he doesn’t beat us.”

2. Get a balanced offensive attack

In four nonconference games, UNM averaged 174 rushing yards per game, putting up a season-best 298 yards in a 35-10 win over UCLA. Through two conference games, the Lobos are averaging just 62.5 yards on the ground, including a season-low 49 yards in a 41-25 loss to Boise State last week.

More simply: UNM went 3-1 in its nonconference schedule. Now it’s off to an 0-2 start in Mountain West play.

An effective, if not outstanding, rushing performance will be pivotal to UNM’s hopes of getting back on track and notching Eck’s first Mountain West win.

“Running the ball is the way we want to stay balanced,” he said. “You look at (a 38-20 win over New Mexico State) and the UCLA games, those are games where we had more tailback rushing attempts than pass attempts. That’s really our ideal formula.”

And how does it get better? Beyond just “knocking people off the ball,” Eck said he wants UNM to make a difference with its creativity in the run game.

“You look back to the UCLA game and we kinda had a new play that we executed really well that gave them some problems in that game,” he added. “We gotta have some creativity that hopefully can give (UNM) something that Nevada has to adjust to.”

3. Limit (and force) turnovers

Far and away the biggest key to Saturday. UNM (-10) and Nevada (-11) are two of the worst programs in the country in turnover margin, with neither team recording a clean sheet in any game this season.

Something has to give, right? At least, for one of these programs.

“We both can’t be minus-three in the game,” Eck chuckled. “One of us has to win that battle.”

One thing that should help UNM: Nevada quarterback Carter Jones has thrown three interceptions in his last two games. Could a freshman making his first road start be the key for a Lobo defense looking to force turnovers?

One thing that doesn’t help UNM: Lobo quarterback Jack Layne has thrown five interceptions over his last two games. Can the junior starter clean it up against a Nevada defense that hasn’t been terribly effective forcing turnovers?

Prediction

Nevada’s better than its 1-5 record, but that’s more of a credit to its defense than an offense that’s lost more turnovers (16) than any other unit in the country. And for all of UNM’s woes over the last couple weeks, the formula is simple: Run the ball effectively, limit turnovers and play sound defense. I think they should be able to do that against the Wolf Pack.

Do I also think Nevada will find ways to make this closer than it probably should be? Yes. Yes, I do. New Mexico 27, Nevada 20

Odds and ends

FINDING SEPARATION: UNM has struggled to find separation in man coverage this season, leading to a suggestion from Eck that the Lobos might mix it up in the passing game.

“Sometimes, at this point in the season, it’s not always that we’re going to get much better at getting separation,” Eck said. “We may have to have crossing routes and stacks and bunches to help people get off press, because that hurt us (against Boise State).”

COACHING CONNECTION: Eck and Choate first crossed paths when the latter was hired as Montana State’s head coach in 2015, and did not retain Eck, the former Bobcat offensive line coach.

“He probably wasn’t super happy with it initially, and then a couple weeks later, he’s like, ‘hey, my wife needs some boxes,’” Choate said during Mountain West Media Days in July. “And I said, ‘well, come over to the house. We just moved. We got plenty of boxes.’ And actually, my wife and his wife have struck up a friendship.

“And, you know, I have a ton of respect for the job that Jason did at Idaho, and I think he’s a good dude, man.”

IN TOWN: Three-star quarterback Cade Mitchell will be visiting UNM this weekend, per his X account. The 6-3, 210-pound Mountainside (Oregon) High School senior committed to the Lobos in June.