UNM football: Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico-Air Force

Three keys and a prediction as New Mexico travels to Air Force for a pivotal conference matchup:

1. Limit big plays

Entering Saturday, the Falcons are tied with Fresno State for the fourth-most explosive rushing plays (17) to pair with the eighth-most explosive passing plays (27) in the 12-team Mountain West.

Those numbers can’t increase much if the Lobos want to notch their first victory in Falcon Stadium since 2000.

“You can’t bleed out on (one play),” UNM defensive coordinator Spence Nowinsky said Tuesday. “They can’t have a pass for 76 yards — you know, run, run, run, run, run, shot over the top. Or, you fall asleep a little bit and you don’t fit their fullback trap up, and next thing you know it’s a 50-yard gain.

“That’s what can’t happen. They’re gonna have some passes for 18. They’re gonna have some runs for 12. We just can’t (let them) have a bunch of runs for 40.”

UNM would also be wise to generate a few explosives (plays of 20 yards or more) of its own. But after giving up an average of 4.3 explosives per game in the first half of its schedule, Air Force has brought that down to an average of three over its last four games – be on the lookout for how (or if) the Lobos can create chunk plays Saturday.

“They’re playing a lot more zone (coverages) … I think they’re limiting big plays by staying on top of routes (and) not letting people throw the ball over their head,” head coach Jason Eck said Tuesday. “(They’re) getting more eyes on the ball, hats to the football to make up for a missed tackle.”

2. Maintain momentum on late downs

In UNM’s 20-17 win over Colorado State last week, the Lobos offered what could be considered a season-best effort in stopping an offense on third- and fourth-and-short.

A similar performance against Air Force would do wonders for UNM’s odds.

“They end up in a lot of third-and-2s, fourth-and-1s,” Eck said. “I thought that was one of the strengths of our defense last week, because we had some huge stops (on) those downs. I think that’s something we’re gonna have to do again this week, because this is not a team you can say you’re going to consistently get in third-and-long.”

3. Make the most of each possession

Make no mistake: Both teams will have limited possessions come Saturday. Consider it as much a credit to New Mexico’s slower pace (66 plays per game, good for 103rd in the 136-team FBS) as it is to the unusual ball control qualities of Air Force’s option attack.

With that in mind, UNM can afford few empty (or wasted) possessions. The Lobos were able to win against the Rams with four lost fumbles on the day; the margin for error against the Falcons is far slimmer, if only because there’s inherently so few opportunities against Air Force already.

“Ball security, this week, that’s been a point of emphasis,” running back Damon Bankston said Wednesday. “I’ve been focused on it. All the ball carriers have been focused on it and I think we’ve done a good job of putting an emphasis on it.”

Prediction

As Eck put it, this UNM team has a knack for doing what hasn’t been done in a long time. A 13-game losing streak to Colorado State? A 17-year stretch without beating a Power Four/Five opponent? A 9-year bowl drought?

The Lobos put those all to bed this year. So it only makes sense that they’d take another step and snap a 25-year (!) drought without a win at Falcon Stadium, right?

Well, maybe.

At full strength (and if the Lobos’ defense plays the way it did last week) I think UNM wins, though maybe not by a resounding margin. With three more starters — two on the offensive line in Richard Pearce and Kaden Robnett — questionable for Saturday, the Lobos may be in for a challenge.

That’s enough to give me some pause, even if Air Force is rolling out a new starting quarterback this week. Without knowing 100% if they’ll play, I’ll assume at least one Lobo starter does — consider that enough for the Lobos to eke out a tight one and snap another streak this season. New Mexico 24, Air Force 20