UNM football: Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico-Utah State

New Mexico hosts Utah State on Saturday at University Stadium, the first meeting between both programs since Bronco Mendenhall left the Lobos to become the Aggies’ head coach. Three keys, a prediction — plus some other odds and ends — entering one of UNM’s most anticipated games of the year:

1. Find answers for Barnes

Simply put, there is not one single answer to playing (much less completely stopping) Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes.

A career backup entering this season, he’s completed 121 of 186 passes (65.6%) for 1,644 yards, 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. And at 6-foot-2, 210-pounds, the player that grew up on a pig farm in southern Utah runs with all the grit that upbringing might instill, rarely shying away from contact for 363 yards and seven touchdowns.

“You think dual-threat, you think like, a Lamar Jackson — like, just (a) speed guy,” linebacker Jaxton Eck said Wednesday. “But he’s almost like a (Tim Tebow). He’s not gonna slide.”

He can stand in the pocket and deliver. He can extend plays. And if he hasn’t been truly sensational under pressure, Barnes has been plenty effective, notably making a league-best six big-time throws under the gun.

How, then, will the Lobos find answers for Barnes? Expect a mix of coverages, steady pressure and plenty of eyes on one of the more productive quarterbacks in the league.

“I think it’s just in the pass game, having a guy coming for him,” Jaxton said. “And then in the run game, we gotta hit it fast.”

2. Win on third down

A snap shot of Utah State’s offensive production this season, and how it compares to the rest of the Mountain West:

• 34 points per game (fourth in the league)
• 428.4 yards per game (fourth in the league)
• 162.86 rushing yards per game (sixth in the league)
• 265.6 passing yards per game (fourth in the league)
• 88.89% red zone conversion rate (fifth in the league)
• 42 explosive plays created (second in the league)

If it isn’t statistically elite, this is an explosive, relatively efficient and plainly good offense. There is nothing Utah State is truly bad at; nothing the Aggies fully struggle with.

Well, maybe one thing: third downs.

As bizarre as it is, the Aggies are a woeful 26 of 87 (29.89%) when tasked with converting third downs — the worst mark in the Mountain West and one of the lowest in the 136-team FBS. For comparison’s sake, UNM is a slightly below average 37 of 87 (42.53%) without the advantage of a highly mobile quarterback; Air Force leads the league with a 50% conversion rate.

But if it doesn’t make much sense as to why Utah State has struggled on third down — the Lobos ran a similar offense with a highly capable dual-threat quarterback last season and finished top-three in the league — you’re not alone. Even Eck himself wasn’t able to explain what has held this offense back in that regard, especially given its ability to consistently generate explosive plays.

“They haven’t been great overall on third down,” he said Tuesday, “and I’m still trying to figure out exactly why that is. I do think they’re definitely a team that thrives off being balanced and they’re great on the first-and-10s and things like that.

“But that maybe can give us hope, if we can get them in some third and longs, that can be an advantage for us.”

This UNM defense is designed to win on third down by making plays on first and second down, something the Lobos did a pretty good job of last week against Nevada. Finding ways to get the Aggies off the field, and staying on when it’s Utah State’s turn, will be a major key to Saturday’s game.

3. Play a clean game

Or, at least limit turnovers. At the midway point of its conference schedule, UNM still hasn’t played a turnover-free game, losing two possessions against Nevada off a muffed punt and a fumble.

Again, maybe this isn’t a wholly elite Utah State offense by the numbers — for his part, Eck called it “pretty damn exceptional” — but it is good. And UNM isn’t playing at a level where they can lose possessions to the Aggies and still expect to win.

Consider a clean game a relative necessity for the Lobos to come out on top.

Prediction

Former Lobo coach Bronco Mendenhall said it constantly last season: When you have a quarterback, you have a chance. Utah State absolutely has one in Barnes. There’s a real case to be made that he’s the most dynamic and effective quarterback in a league that isn’t short on them.

So I’ll take it a step further: When you have a quarterback like that, you have an advantage — one I think tips this ever so slightly in the Aggies’ direction. Utah State 34, New Mexico 31