Who has the edge in unlikely Super Bowl matchup?

In the preseason, neither Seattle nor New England was given even a 50-percent chance of making the NFL playoffs, much less being a division winner or reaching the Super Bowl.

The Seahawks had the longest odds to win the NFC West at major sportsbooks after missing the playoffs the previous two years. The Patriots were coming off their second consecutive 4-13 last-place finish in the AFC East.

So little was thought of the Seahawks that they had shorter odds to win the fewest games in the league (40-1) than they did to have the most wins (60-1). Bettors opting for "most wins" cashed in big-time via tiebreaker over New England and Denver among 14-game victors.

And with regard to winning Super Bowl LX, New England had odds of 125-1 entering Week 4, and the Seahawks were at 80-1 after losing their home opener to San Francisco.

There's more. Folks who figured these teams would meet in the title game and placed a wager on the outcome received ginormous odds. Bettors at the SuperBook who picked Seattle to beat New England got 2,500-1. Those taking the Patriots got 3,000-1.

Join the club if you didn't see either scenario occurring.

Now for a look at Sunday's game, which is a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX when New England beat Seattle 28-24:

SUNDAY

New England Patriots (17-3; 14-6 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (16-3; 14-5 ATS) 4:30 p.m., Santa Clara, Calif. 

Line: Seahawks -5 (45.5 O/U)

The second-seeded Patriots got here by sweeping past the LA Chargers and Houston at home and then downing top-seeded Denver on the road, all as a favorite. By contrast, last year, the Patriots were the only team in the league to be an underdog in each of their games.

New England, guided by Coach of the Year Mike Vrabel, is trying to become the third team in the past 17 seasons to win the Super Bowl a year after finishing last in its division. Philadelphia did it in the 2017 season and New Orleans in 2009.

Seattle, meanwhile, enjoyed a first-round bye and then went on to rout San Francisco in the divisional round and edge the LA Rams in the NFC final.

Under second-year coach Mike Macdonald, and with offseason acquisition Sam Darnold at QB, the Seahawks are the heaviest favorite in a Super Bowl since 2009 when Indianapolis was a 5-point pick over New Orleans.

In case you don't recall, in that matchup Clovis native and former University of New Mexico All-MWC receiver Hank Baskett, then playing for Indy, muffed an onside kick to start the second half that helped trigger the Saints' comeback en route to a 31-17 victory.

That game was part of a remarkable stretch over the past 18 years in which the Super underdog won 12 times.

More about the showdown

The focus for the teams and fans alike leading up to the game has been the injury status of the starting quarterbacks.

New England's Drake Maye, who finished second in league MVP voting, said at midweek he felt "great" regarding his right shoulder.

He was a full participant in drills this week and isn't listed on the injury report. That's especially important since, in addition to being the league's most accurate passer, he's been the team's second-leading rusher in the playoffs (141 yards, 5.9 a carry).

Darnold, listed as questionable early in the week, was a full-go Thursday as well, but saying he was just "good" when referring to his oblique trouble. Unlike Maye, it wasn't until late in the week the "Q" next to Darnold's name on the depth chart was removed.

Also unlike Maye, Darnold isn't nearly as effective as a runner/scrambler. He ranked 34th in rushing yards among QBs this season.

However, he has come up big in recent months despite finishing the regular season with a league-high 20 turnovers — 14 INTs, six fumbles. Over his past three games, he hasn't had a giveaway.

It's Darnold's ability to find the league's top receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, that helps set the Seahawks apart. Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards, with 27 catches going for 20-plus yards, tied for most in the league.

RB Kenny Walker no doubt will do damage, too.

Another injury cropped up Wednesday, though, when Seattle safety Nick Emmanwori, a Defensive Rookie of the Year finalist, rolled an ankle in practice. He is listed as questionable but said he'll be ready Sunday.

Defensively

This is where the Seahawks have a substantial edge.

Seattle ranked sixth in the league in total defense in yards yielded this season, two spots higher than New England despite being on the field 88 more plays. It was from Week 7 onward the Seahawks performed their best, yielding only 270.5 yards an outing, below the norm of top-ranked Houston this season.

Counting the playoffs, it gets better, especially when games against the Rams and their top-ranked offense are excluded. LA surely was Seattle's kryptonite the past two months, averaging 533.5 yards in two games. In all other matchups, Seattle's foes averaged only 241.2 yards. There hasn't been a lower norm over the course of a season for any team the past 25 years.

It's the Seattle pass rush that could give the Patriots trouble. Despite New England having the same starting offensive line as it did in Week 1, it has given up five sacks in each of its playoff games. Only the NY Jets had such a three-game sequence this season.

Particularly vulnerable has been right guard Mike Onwenu, according to advanced metrics discussed by analysts. And rookie OLT Will Campbell reportedly has been inconsistent.

Veteran Seattle defensive linemen DeMarcus Lawrence and Leonard Williams should cause turmoil.

In summary

I don't have a dog in this fight, but the choice is Seattle. 

Forecast: Seahawks 27, Patriots 19

Conference finals forecast results: 1-1 ATS; 2-0 straight up

Playoff totals: 6-6 ATS; 9-3 straight up