Who will win the Rio Grande Rivalry? Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico-New Mexico State

Yes, it is a big game.

Yes, it will be a big crowd.

Yes, this will be something different — a lot different — for many on the sidelines.

The approach? Not so much.

“The same factors that win any game are gonna win this game,” New Mexico head coach Jason Eck said during a press conference Tuesday. “You know, who executes better, who makes more plays, who plays cleaner football?

“The recipe doesn’t change in how we win.”

New Mexico hosts rival New Mexico State on Saturday at 2 p.m. in front of what’s expected to be a near-sellout crowd at University Stadium in Albuquerque. The Lobos are 14½-point favorites entering the 115th edition of the Rio Grande Rivalry, the biggest spread in the series since 2021.

Three keys and a prediction for UNM-NMSU:

1. Pressure the QB

Few programs needed an upgrade under center quite like NMSU, and it got one in Montana transfer Logan Fife. The 6-0, 205-pound sixth-year senior has completed 59 of 109 passes (54.2%) for 762 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions, providing a steady presence for an offense that badly needed it last year.

“I think he’s got some moxie and some toughness,” Eck said. “You kinda see him as a guy I bet the offensive line (at NMSU) likes to play for. Definitely a guy (you) gotta respect.”

But like a lot of quarterbacks, Fife’s numbers drop significantly when he’s under pressure. Per Pro Football Focus, the former Fresno State quarterback has completed nine of 29 passes (37.5%) for 76 yards when he’s feeling the rush; Fife hasn’t thrown a touchdown or an interception while under pressure, but his turnover-worthy throw rate (another PFF metric) rises from 5.1% to 8.7%, the 10th-highest of any qualified passer in the country.

To Fife’s credit, he hasn’t owned a lot of those pressures and can get the ball out quickly. And to NMSU’s credit, the Aggies have actually done a pretty good job protecting him against sacks. But Fife has seen double-digit pressures in two of NMSU’s three games, and he’s going up against a Lobo defense that hit its stride with 28 pressures against UCLA. Could that be enough to force a key turnover or two?

2. Run the ball, shut down the run

Entering Saturday, NMSU is averaging 47.67 rushing yards per game and 1.91 yards per attempt, both the worst of any FBS program this season. And while the Aggies’ 75 rushing attempts are the second-lowest of any team, that lack of a run game has been far and away the most glaring issue on an offense that hasn’t fared too poorly otherwise.

“Our inside run sessions that we’ve done (in practice), we’ve done good-on-good, and we’ve really just made practices a lot more physical,” NMSU head coach Tony Sanchez said during a press conference Monday. “And without giving too much away, we’ve got to hone in on certain things; understand who we are and our skill sets and where we can lean on (them).

“That’s gonna be a big question in the game. They want to run the ball, we need to start running the ball.”

To make matters worse, the Aggies have also struggled against the run. NMSU has allowed 187.33 rushing yards per game, just a shade off UNM’s average (188 yards). The clearest path to a UNM win might just be the Lobos imposing their will running the ball and stopping it — both of which they look well-equipped to do.

3. Limit explosive plays in the passing game

Through three games, NMSU has generated 14 explosive (20 yards or more) plays, all in the passing game. UNM hasn’t been tremendously effective stopping explosives through the air, but it’ll be key towards limiting an NMSU offense that’s shown it’s capable of connecting downfield, even if the consistency isn’t always there.

Prediction

It was noted above that the clearest path to a UNM win is a game in which the Lobos run the ball and stop the run, both of which they’ve demonstrated they’re capable of. But I don’t think that’s their only avenue to a win. After all, UNM’s receiver room is the healthiest it’s been since midway through fall camp. Will that help boost what’s been a slightly underwhelming passing game? And even if the Lobos aren’t able to get a handle on NMSU’s rushing attack, will it be good enough to go toe-to-toe with UNM’s?

But lets not overthink things: A good day for UNM running the ball and stopping the run remains the most likely path. New Mexico 31, New Mexico State 17