Why New Mexico will beat Idaho State: Three keys and a prediction

Saturday, there will be a beer garden, TVs and more outside University Stadium. Fans can order new food items and turn their attention to the renovated video board inside.

And, hey, a football game, too.

New Mexico opens at home Saturday against Idaho State, with plenty of new fan amenities in store for head coach Jason Eck’s first home game.

And at least one person hopes the actual on-field product is just as attractive to the fans as any other new amenity.

“I want to make sure we’re putting on a good show, because I’m hoping we can get 25,000 people in here to support us with all the things that we’ve done,” Eck said during a news conference Tuesday. “And I wanna make sure we put on a good show so they wanna come back after they come.”

Three keys and a prediction for UNM’s home opener:

1. Stop the run

Idaho State throws it just over 60% of the time, so it’s not like the Lobos would be shutting down the heart of the Bengals’ offense. But there’s a real difference when Idaho State gains traction on the ground.

Against UNLV, the Bengals rushed for 160 yards and two touchdowns in a narrow 38-31 loss, popping off several big runs in the process. Last week against Southern Utah? The Thunderbirds held Idaho State to just 23 yards on 16 carries, taking a 22-0 lead before winning 46-24.

“They did a really good job of stopping their run game,” Eck said Tuesday, “and (made) them one-dimensional throwing it.”

It’s clear UNM has similar intentions, and this just might be the week to do it. The Bengals’ top two rushers (Dason Brooks and Robert Marshall IV) will likely miss Saturday’s game, and third-string running back Carson Sudbery will lead a “running back by committee” approach, head coach Cody Hawkins said Wednesday.

If it isn’t the best situation for Idaho State, it is for the Lobos. Expect them to take advantage and keep the Bengals passing for most of the afternoon.

2. Run the ball (successfully)

UNM’s offensive line didn’t have the easiest time protecting quarterback Jack Layne last week. It’s fair to note the lineman not only up against, well, Michigan, but the Wolverines held the Lobos to a paltry 1.8 yards per carry. In turn, UNM shifted away from the ground game and threw it 47 times, further stressing any protection issues.

Eck, of course, noticed.

“We gotta run the ball better,” he said. “We threw it much more than we would like to against anybody, let alone a team like Michigan.”

Through two games, Idaho State is allowing 311.5 rushing yards per game, the 109th-worst mark among 119 FCS programs. Eck has said one of UNM’s goals is to outrush its opponent and again, this is a relatively ideal week to try to make that happen.

“We gotta continue to stop the run better,” Eck said, “but we certainly have to run the ball better.”

3. Force turnovers

Tuesday, Eck said he wanted UNM to put pressure on Idaho State quarterback Jordan Cooke to help force turnovers: “That’s probably been his one nemesis — he has shown that he’ll turn over the ball if you put pressure on him.”

Wednesday, Hawkins said Cooke would be out for the foreseeable future, leaving Davis Harsin and Jackson Sharman to face the Lobos. It’s unclear who will start: “The coaching staff feels really good with both of them … I think they both deserve an opportunity to play,” Hawkins said. “You’ll see (of them) both.”

Whether Harsin or Sharman takes the majority of reps under center shouldn’t change the plan for UNM. Expect the Lobos to bring pressure early and often and shuffle some coverages to see if they can turn a mistake or two into a turnover.

Prediction

Idaho State has had my attention ever since they put a scare into UNLV in Week 0, but no Cooke and a depleted running back room doesn’t bode well for the Bengals, even if receivers Michael Shulikov, Damien Morgan and Michael Duarte could be a problem for UNM. And yes, Idaho State’s defense throws a lot at opposing offenses, but it doesn’t do a ton of those things particularly well, at least not at this point in the season.

Rain or shine, it should be a good day for Lobo players, coaches and fans at University Stadium. New Mexico 42, Idaho State 13