POPULAR BOB'S NFL POSTSEASON FORECAST
Wild Card Weekend: Does it get any wilder than four home underdogs?
Home teams have traditionally cleaned up on the first weekend of the playoffs, but this year four of the favorites are visitors
NFL teams battle fiercely all year to claim division crowns and earn the right to play at home when the postseason arrives.
The past three years home teams have come through in a big way, going 28-8 overall, including 10-2 last season.
But for this weekend's wild-card round, four of the teams listed as favorites are visitors. And for the first time a No. 2 seed is an underdog to a No. 7 seed. What's going on?!
Here's a look at the first-round games:
SATURDAY
---> No. 5 LA Rams (12-5) at No. 4 Carolina Panthers (8-9), 2:30 p.m.
Rams -10.5 (46 O/U)
This point spread ties for the largest for a home underdog in wild-card round history. But if any team knows how to pull a big upset it's Carolina, which this season won at Green Bay as a 13-point underdog in Week 9 and four weeks later beat the Rams 31-28 as a 10-point dog.
Panthers QB Bryce Young had the best game of his three-year career in that victory over LA, having a passer rating of 147.1. LA, meanwhile, is ranked first in total offense and led by QB Matthew Stafford, who is favored to be named NFL MVP.
However, the Rams face a scheduling injustice. Not only is this their second East Coast trip the past three weeks but they are playing on short rest in back-to-back games against teams that were on normal rest. Not to mention LA didn't rest its starters last week.
But they should still squeak by Carolina in the rain.
Fun fact: This marks the 14th game in wild-card history in which a team had a four-win advantage over its foe. The teams with the fewer wins have gone 7-6 (8-3-2 ATS).
Forecast: Rams 27, Panthers 24
---> No. 7 Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at No. 2 Chicago Bears (11-6), 6 p.m.
Packers -1 (45.5 O/U)
There have been 10 games previously between No. 2 and No. 7 seeds, and the seven seed has won only once, when the Packers thumped Dallas 48-32 two years ago.
Can they do it again? After all they are getting back first-team QB Jordan Love (concussion). But they aren't getting back DE Micah Parsons, who had 12.5 sacks before tearing his ACL in Week 14. The Packers haven't won since.
Chicago, meanwhile, rates an edge behind their third-ranked rushing offense and a defense that's tops in the league with 33 takeaways.
With wind gusts close to 30 mph expected at Soldier Field, that running game could well be the difference.
Forecast: Bears 28, Packers 21
SUNDAY
---> No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5) at No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4), 11 a.m.
Bills -1 (52 O/U)
Buffalo is the first No. 6 seed to be favored over a three seed the past 10 seasons and the eighth in history dating to 1990.
Buffalo QB Josh Allen has a decided edge in playoff experience over the Jags' Trevor Lawrence, going 7-6 since 2018. Lawrence is only 1-1.
However, Lawrence has been stupendous the past six weeks with 15 TD passes and one INT. And three times he faced a team ranked in the top 10 in pass defense.
Allen, on the other hand, has suffered mightily when taking on top defenses. Against Philadelphia's second-ranked unit and Houston's third-ranked pass defense he totaled zero TDs, two INTs and was sacked 13 times. Jacksonville's unit ranks fifth.
Fun fact: Twenty-five years ago New Orleans was the biggest underdog as a 3 seed against a No. 6. The Saints beat the Rams 31-28 as a 6-point dog.
Forecast: Jaguars 24, Bills 20
---> No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles (11-6), 2:30 p.m.
Eagles -6 (44.5 O/U)
The defending champion Eagles come into this game well-rested after their JVs lost to Washington 24-17 last week.
San Francisco's home loss to Seattle last week was a far more crushing defeat, not only costing the 49ers the No. 1 seed and a week's rest but it sent them packing for a long flight.
Just like last week, San Francisco TE George Kittle, WR Ricky Pearsall and OLT Trent Williams are listed as questionable, which helps explain why they scored only three points against the Seahawks.
Forecast: Eagles 27, 49ers 14
---> No. 6 LA Chargers (11-6) at No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3), 6 p.m.
Patriots -3.5 (46 O/U)
Just what the Chargers needed — having to travel to their most distant league foe after already setting an NFL record with more than 37,000 air miles this season.
New England, meanwhile set a league record with 10 more victories this season than last, breaking the mark of nine set by the St. Louis Rams in 1999.
The Patriots' offense is potent behind second-year QB Drake Maye, the league's top-rated passer.
LA quarterback Justin Herbert is top-notch but doesn't have enough line help to keep him from being pounded.
Forecast: Patriots 26, Chargers 13
MONDAY
---> No. 5 Houston Texans (12-5) at No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7), 6:15 p.m.
Texans -3 (38.5 O/U)
The Steelers will be looking to snap a five-game playoff losing streak that dates to 2017.
They'll be counting on QB Aaron Rodgers to replicate what he did against Houston's defense last season while with the Jets, throwing three TD passes with no INTs.
But don't count on it against a Houston defense that now ranks No. 1 in the league and gave Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence their worst passing day of the season.
Fun fact: This is the fourth straight season both 4 seeds are underdogs to 5 seeds.
Forecast: Texans 24, Steelers 10
RECORDS
Last week's picks: 7-9 against spread; 9-7 straight up
Season total: 126-135-8 ATS; 158-91-1 SU