ON THE MONEY
Hamill: Are higher taxes evil? Let’s check the tape
The official U.S. involvement in World War II started Dec. 7, 1941, and ended just under 45 months later.
In that time more than 16.1 million Americans participated in some capacity in the war effort. The country had just under 140 million residents. By contrast, we are now over 340 million.
Two summers ago, I spent some time in the Netherlands visiting a daughter. Her town was just 35 miles from Antwerp, Belgium.
In December 1944 Hitler launched a last-ditch effort in the Ardennes Forest. The Allies were caught by surprise by a large German force.
When the battle started the Allies had 228,741 men fighting. Eight days later, they had 541,000. Eight days after that they had 705,000.
By late 1944 the Allies could adjust to a surprise. Money had already been spent. Many lives were also expended. In 45 days, the Allies won the Battle of the Bulge.
By the end of this terrible war the U.S. debt exceeded 100% of gross domestic product, or GDP. Debt was 106% of GDP in 1946, a record level to this day.
The top tax rate was 81% in 1941. This rose to 94% in 1944 before dropping to 91% in 1946. It stayed at that level until the Kennedy tax cuts reduced it to 77% in 1964.
If you’re wondering, the world did not end. In fact, post-war GDP growth was highest in the Kennedy and Johnson years, plus the few Ford years.
The top tax rate dropped in the Reagan years but spiked up to 39.6% in the Clinton years. The Clinton GDP growth exceeded any president since that time.
GDP growth since George W. Bush has been consistent: 2.2% to 2.4% for each president. Tax laws have varied, but GDP growth has not.
So, will the world end if the 2017 tax cuts are not extended? I think not, but debt levels may change.
The Congressional Budget Office, or CBO, says debt is 100% of GDP in 2025. Without extending the 2017 tax cuts, CBO projects it will grow to 118% by 2035.
That would be a record — higher than during World War II. Peacetime deficits that exceed those following a nationwide effort to save the planet from tyranny.
I’ve been lucky to have never been fired from a job. But I have had many jobs. I leave for better opportunities.
Apparently, the best job in America is congressperson. And it must be getting better every year.
These congresssional members will do anything to get reelected. And experience shows how to do this.
We the people like stuff. But we do not like to pay for it. Occasionally a politician says they will reduce the stuff we get.
When asked what stuff they will reduce they become strangely silent. Perhaps, they say, the wasteful stuff.
When asked what this wasteful stuff is, they say, oh you know. I think we all know. No need to say. So, nothing is offered.
We once did great things. Costly things. But we agreed to pay to do these things. Now we are ruled by executive orders. Congress has abdicated responsibility.
I am not advocating for anything. That is not my place. I am not a congressperson. I just know revenues minus expenses equals deficits.
We are told the 2017 tax cuts must continue. If not, they say, it will be a large tax increase, if only because we cut taxes in a partisan way through a process that had to end.
Some say spending will be cut, apparently by Elon Musk, because Congress is frozen into inaction on anything that might be unpopular.
But let’s not blame Congress. We put them there, with full knowledge of what they have done in the past and with no expectation that anything would change.
Americans live well. We do so by spending like we are fighting a world war against despotism, with one in eight residents fighting for their lives.
Our top tax rate is less than half what it was in World War II, but we spend like it is World War II. Yet it’s just about impossible for an incumbent congressperson to lose their job.
More than a third of the Senate is 70 or older. Eight were alive when the Battle of the Bulge was fought.
Congress has a winning formula. If we asked Congress, “How is not taxing and spending working for you?” the answer seems to be, “pretty well.”