Will the Lobos take the next step – or stumble? Three thoughts on UNM's 2026 football schedule 

The roster is set.

Spring practice is right around the corner.

And the Lobos finally have a schedule.

The Mountain West released dates for its 2026 conference schedule last week, completing New Mexico’s slate entering its second season under head coach Jason Eck.

Three thoughts on how UNM’s 2026 schedule shook out:

1. This schedule sets up for UNM to either take the next step, or stumble in a big way

Is it a stretch to say UNM could be favored in 10 games this season? Let’s run down the schedule and take a look.

Central Michigan (Game 1) and Mercyhurst (Game 2) at home? UNM will be a double-digit favorite for at least one of those games, maybe both.

At Oklahoma (Game 3) and New Mexico State (Game 4)? The Lobos obviously won’t be favored against the Sooners, but I’ll bite and say they’ll be favored on the road against the Aggies.

UTEP (Game 5), North Dakota State (Game 7) and Air Force (Game 12) at home? Yes, UNM will be favored in front of a trio of resurgent University Stadium crowds who haven’t seen a home loss in the Jason Eck era.

Hawaii (Game 6) on the road? No. But I’ll say they’re favored at San Jose State (Game 8), Nevada (Game 9) and Wyoming (Game 11), even if the former two destinations haven’t been all too kind to the Lobos in, well, ever.

UNLV (Game 10) at home is the tricky one. At a neutral stadium, I lean toward the Rebels being favored, but you could convince me that UNM would be. Since the Lobos host, let’s give them the edge for the purpose of this exercise. 

So that’s 10 games where UNM is favored. Does that make 10-2 a fair expectation for this team? I’m not sure we know enough about these Lobos yet, but for now, I’ll go ahead and say yes. 

Does that mean it's a guarantee the Lobos are going 10-2?

Absolutely not. Let’s run down the back end of that schedule again.

One block of games that jumps out: at Hawaii (Oct. 17), vs. North Dakota State (Oct. 24), at San Jose State (Oct. 31) and at Nevada (Nov. 6). More simply, that’s a highly challenging road game against a league title contender; a tough home matchup against perhaps the most intriguing team in the conference; a game against a team the Lobos haven’t beat on the road since 1969; and the final leg of the road swing against a team they’ve never beaten on the road.

The reward for making it through that stretch? That tricky home matchup against UNLV, the likely league favorite. After that, what’s likely to be a blustery trip to Laramie, Wyoming. And to cap it, one last home game against an Air Force team that’s likely improved.

Even if one of those teams ends up having a worse season than expected, that’s a grind to finish the season, no matter how you spin it. And the margin for error feels awfully slim — one bad night could snowball into two, and things could get uncomfortable in a hurry.

But if the Lobos answer with a stretch run similar to last season? They’ll have unquestionably taken the next step as a program, and its loftiest goals — a Mountain West title and a College Football Playoff berth — will almost absolutely be in play.

Then again, you could point to the fact that they might be favored in 10 games (!) as evidence they’ve already taken that step. 

2. Don’t discount what might be a less-than-compelling start

Opening with two home games against a respectable, but maybe not eye-popping opponent in Central Michigan and one plenty of fans have never heard in Mercyhurst won’t generate much buzz. All due respect to the Chippewas and Lakers, but neither brings the early-season juice of a Michigan or even a Montana State, the type of matchups that might get a casual fan to tune in or attend. 

The good news? I’m not sure how much buzz needs to be generated for a team that finished 9-4 last season, with a coach that’s as popular as any’s ever been in this town.

The even better news? I won’t deign to compare these games to your standard NFL preseason fare — again, Central Michigan ought to be plenty solid — but whatever kinks UNM is still working through at the end of fall camp, they’ll have two rock-solid opportunities to keep at them before two big ones at Oklahoma and New Mexico State.

3. On a bye week that was oh-so-close to perfect placement

You hear it from coaches every year, whether they mean it or not: The bye couldn’t have come at a better time. Consider it a secondary cliche to favorites like we’re taking it one game at a time and we need to play a complete 60 minutes in the library of coachspeak. 

How, then, did the bye week fall for UNM? I’m inclined to think UNM’s bye came at a great time.

I also think it was a week away from coming at a better — if not nearly perfect — time.

To the first point: UNM’s week six open date (Oct. 10) is as close to the middle of the 14-week season as any team in the league. There’s a neatness to that near first-half, second-half delineation that’s attractive to fans (and media) with two marquee games at Oklahoma and NMSU to look forward to before the grind of conference play.

To the second: I’d like to think nearly every player, coach and fan would like to have that bye fall after its game at Hawaii, not directly before. That’s the type of trip you’d like to get back from and decompress.

It’s definitely not the trip you want to gear up and play North Dakota State immediately after, too. 

But I’m probably overanalyzing – the Lobos will be taking it one game at a time, after all. 

Sean Reider covers college football and other sports for the Journal. You can reach him at sreider@abqjournal.com or via X at @lenaweereider.