Meteorologists say Ruidoso floods are 'ongoing threat' as weekend storms loom

As Ruidoso weathers the storm after a historic flash flood raised the namesake river’s crest to 20 feet on Tuesday afternoon, National Weather Service officials say there may be more to come as monsoon season continues.

Past wildfires have impacted the area around Ruidoso, leaving it vulnerable to floods. Areas downhill or downstream from burn scars are more susceptible to flash flooding and, with wildfire-damaged soil not soaking it up as well, water can quickly and dangerously flow through the village.

“We typically say it only takes maybe a quarter to a half an inch of rainfall over a burn scar to create flooding issues,” said NWS meteorologist Todd Shoemake. “Lots of heavy rainfall developed on Tuesday, so that was really the very worst case.”

With more rain on the way this weekend, Shoemake said, “Yes, this is an ongoing threat through the rest of the monsoon season into September.”

He said there is a possibility the village could see similar flooding to Tuesday, which left three people dead and hundreds of homes damaged. The flooding also compromised public water systems in the area, with officials on Friday asking residents in certain areas to boil drinking water as a precaution.

This weekend, NWS expects scattered storms in Ruidoso, with an increase in moisture from Saturday through Monday.

“The other complication with that is a lot of the storms will probably be moving pretty slowly, much like they were this past Tuesday,” Shoemake said. “The slower the storms move, the more time the storm has to drop that much more rainfall onto a particular area.”

Shoemake said it takes roughly three to five years for burn scars to recover and regrow vegetation that can absorb rainfall.

Storms on Tuesday dumped heavy rain from 2 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. over the Sierra Blanca mountains, just west of Ruidoso. As a result, the Rio Ruidoso crested at 20 feet. The previous record high — which happened in 2024 — was 15 feet.

In the last year, Shoemake said NWS has issued more than 24 flash flood warnings and eight flash flood emergencies for Ruidoso.

“We reserve those flash flood emergencies for when there’s an almost imminent and catastrophic event going on,” he said.

Flood debris, like trees and logs moving down the river, is “a big concern” and “a wild card” that can impact how much rain the village of Ruidoso can handle, Shoemake said. A Weather Service hydrologist is currently in Ruidoso assessing the damage in order to give the agency a better idea of what impacts Ruidoso can expect from flooding going forward.