Fast starts, third downs and an upset? Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico-UCLA

One of the big perks of a Friday game?

The Lobos will have a little bit more attention than normal.

“Everyone who’s playing on Saturday in college football is staying in a hotel Friday night watching football before they go to bed,” New Mexico head coach Jason Eck said Tuesday. “ … I’m sure all the Mountain West coaches are going to be watching. There’s a lot of eyes on you.”

And with that “many eyes” tuning in, UNM (1-1) hopes to put up on a good show against UCLA (0-2).

Three keys and a prediction for the Lobos’ trip to the Rose Bowl, their second-ever appearance at the hallowed stadium:

1. Win on third down

With a Friday game, UNM had to give up something in practice. After all, there simply isn’t enough time. And even though the Lobos haven’t closed halves as smoothly as they might like, Eck said they opted to drop most two-minute drills from this week’s schedule.

“We’re going to do some more third downs,” Eck said. “I think third down is probably a bigger issue (than two minute drills) … (it) kind of trumps it, because at the end of both halves, we’ve given up a big third-and-long conversion that’s led to them going down and scoring a touchdown before the half on defense.

“Really, we gotta do a better job. (When) we get a team to third-and-10-plus, we gotta get off the field.”

Two games is far from a big sample size. But if UNM’s defense has one glaring issue at the moment, it might just be third downs: the Lobos have given up conversions on 14 of 28 (50%) third downs defended, tied for the 121st-worst mark in the FBS.

The bad news for UNM? That’s the exact same percentage the Lobos finished with last year, the second-worst mark in the FBS . That, of course, wasn’t the only defensive metric the Lobos ranked at or near the bottom of the country in.

The good news? UCLA has been even worse converting third downs, converting just 5 of 24 (20.83%) on the year. And the Bruins are even worse defending it (19-for-27, 70.37%), which qualifies as even better news for UNM; the Lobos are 11-for-27 (40.74%) when tasked with converting third downs, a middling rate compared to the rest of the FBS.

Whether UCLA amended its schedule to make sure the Bruins got more third down work is unknown. But both teams have made it an emphasis heading into Friday; whoever consistently wins third downs likely wins the game, too.

“We gotta get off the field on third down,” head coach Deshaun Foster said Monday. “And offensively, we gotta stay on the field on third down.”

2. Contain the quarterback

UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava has seen his fair share of criticism after he became the first unofficial holdout in modern college football history this summer. But don’t let the drama fool you: the Tennessee transfer is the Bruins’ highest-graded player, per Pro Football Focus, after accounting for 497 yards of total offense (391 passing, 106 rushing) through two games.

And while UCLA doesn’t always take full advantage of Iamaleava’s skillset, it’s still something the Lobos have to plan for, especially after Idaho State’s quarterbacks gave them some issues on the ground last week. Containing him in the run game while consistently pressuring him in the passing game won’t be easy, but it’s a clear key to a UNM win.

“You’ve always giving up something with whatever you wanna do,” Eck said when asked about defending a dual-threat quarterback. “Obviously if you get an extra guy in the box, you’re giving him more one-on-ones on the perimeter. If you’re playing two high (safeties), then you’re a little bit more susceptible to the quarterback run having guys (up) there.

“So I think we gotta mix it up. I think we gotta give him different looks and not let them have situations where they know what they’re gonna get (and) take advantage of it.”

3. Start fast

UCLA has not had the easiest time starting games this season. The Bruins fell behind 2-0 to Utah and 23-0 to UNLV before losing both games. If there’s a blueprint to beating UCLA, it starts with playing from ahead.

“I think when you’re dealing with a team who’s had some adversity, you wanna try to give them more,” Eck said. “You know, not try to build their (confidence) and things like that. I do think that would be not our only avenue to win the game, but I think that’d be a helpful avenue, to build the lead on these guys.”

Prediction

I have regretfully missed the mark on both predictions this season: I had Michigan beating UNM 38-7; the Wolverines won 34-17. I had UNM beating Idaho State 42-13 ; the Lobos only won 32-22.

I don’t feel great about picking this one either. And while I do think this has a great chance to be the Lobos’ most competitive buy game in years, UNM still isn’t quite where they need to be to win this one either. What the Lobos do well (or poorly) right now might not be enough to overcome UCLA’s overall talent.

I’ll take the Bruins to win, and the Lobos to cover. UCLA 31, New Mexico 21