Shaky No. 1 seeds may lead to March Madness fireworks

It's March Madness time again, which means countless folks will be trying to look busy at work while filling out brackets and contemplating which teams to consider winning the NCAA men's basketball title.

The play-in round started Tuesday, with two more games set for Wednesday. And don't automatically discount the chances for those squads. Back in 2021 UCLA advanced from the play-in round to the Final Four as an 11 seed with pretournament odds of 125-1 to win it all.

Here's a look at how this year's tournament could play out, with some insight from a veteran handicapper.

First a little history

Last season all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four for the first time in 17 years with Florida ultimately winning out over Houston.

Two years before that it was much more unpredictable with no top-three seeds getting that far. It was only the fourth time since squads were first seeded that all four No. 1s failed to get past the Elite 8.

The longest shot to ever win the tournament, based on pretourney odds, was UConn at 100-1 in 2014. The highest seed to cut down the nets was Villanova in 1985 at No. 8. Two years earlier N.C. State took the title as a six seed with a dramatic championship game victory over Houston in the Pit.

No. 1s in the bracket

This year's overall top seed is Duke, which also stands atop the current AP poll. Next comes Arizona, Michigan and Florida.

But do they all really belong there, especially considering what transpired in conference tournaments and with injuries?

Duke, for instance, did win the ACC tournament but also lost a pair of guards — at least temporarily — with foot injuries. Caleb Foster (foot fracture) isn't expected back until probably the Final Four. Patrick Ngongba (sore foot) is hopeful he'll be ready for Round 1 play.

Then there's Michigan's L.J. Cason, a key reserve who tore his ACL in February and is lost for the season. He was the team's most accurate 3-point shooter. His absence likely played a role in the Wolverines falling to Purdue in the Big Ten final.

And Florida, which was bashed by Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals, is without center Micah Handlogten, who broke a leg in that game.

By process of elimination, my choice out of these four schools is Arizona, by far the healthiest team in the bunch.

Others that could surprise

Marc Lawrence, publisher at Playbook Sports, identified a few teams that have caught his eye and are worth considering to make noise.

"Those who would command a look are sixth-seeded Tennessee, with fifth-seeded St. John’s and Michigan State other long shots worthy of consideration," he wrote in an email. The Spartans are seeded third.

"It’s all about head coaches with solid defenses."

In addition, I'd like to throw in third-seeded Virginia, in large part because of its stout inside play, and fourth-seeded Arkansas behind freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr., who is considered by some analysts as the best player in the college game.

Some attractive long shots

Of the 47 teams that have pretournament odds of 100-1 or longer to win the championship, it's hard to ignore the UCLA Bruins, who went 23-11 and are seeded seventh in the East Region.

The Bruins are 250-1 shots to win it all and are led in part by ex-UNM Lobo Donovan Dent, who was last year's Mountain West Conference Player of the Year.

The Bruins came on strong the past month with victories over three teams that ranked in the top 10 at the time (Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan State), but UCLA's hopes hinge largely on how fast Dent recovers from a calf strain he suffered last Saturday in the Big Ten semifinals and whether leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau can snap back after incurring a right knee strain a day earlier.

Both are expected to play, which would make for a fun long-shot wager if you're passing by a sportsbook.

Then there's even a 1,000-1 bet that has a decent shot at reaching the Sweet 16, and that's Mid-American Conference tourney winner Akron, which is in the tournament for the fourth time in the past five years.

In the Zips' opener, they’ll face fourth-seeded Alabama, which will be without its second-leader scorer, Aden Holloway, a guard who is off the team after being arrested on a marijuana charge.

Up next likely would be No. 5 Texas Tech, which last month lost its top player, ex-Lobo JT Toppin, to injury.

More on Toppin

Toppin, who left the Lobos after the 2023-24 season, was the Red Raiders' leading scorer, rebounder and tops in steals this season before tearing an ACL on Feb. 17. He's gone for the rest of the way for a team that has gone only 3-3 without him.

Tech's odds to win it all were 35-1 before he went down. Now that number is 125-1.

And then two of his teammates were injured on the slippery glass floor in the Big 12 quarterfinals — Christian Anderson (groin) and LeJuan Watts (ankle) — but both are expected to play when fifth-seeded Tech opens tourney play Friday. But will they be at 100 percent?

An active Aggie

Jaden Harris, who played for New Mexico State the previous two seasons, will be getting his first taste of March Madness after signing with Kennesaw State last spring.

He helped propel the Owls to the Conference USA title last weekend with a team-high 18 points against Louisiana Tech in the championship game.

But he and the Owls likely will be one-and-done in their opener against No. 3 seed Gonzaga, which stands as a 20.5-point favorite.

FYI: The Owls' title odds are a ridiculous 5,000-1.

Mountain West conference

The regular season was filled with drama down to the final night, when Utah State beat New Mexico to clinch the crown. The Aggies then also won the ensuing conference tourney and wound up earning the only NCAA bid awarded to a MW team.

By contrast, only two years earlier a conference-record six teams received invitations, including New Mexico when the Lobos ended a nine-year NCAA tourney drought.

But in the 26-year history of the league only once has a squad reached the Final 4, which was three years ago when San Diego State lost to UConn in the championship game.

So don't look for unranked USU to do much damage here as a 350-1 shot.

Over the past 50 years there has been only one team with longer pretournament odds to reach the Final 4, which was the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers in 2018. Their odds were 380-1.

Bringing back old memories

Wednesday night's play-in game will be between the teams that have the worst win-loss records in the 68-team field: SWAC tournament champion Prairie View (18-17) and Patriot League tourney winner Lehigh (18-16). The victor will advance to play the East’s top seed Florida on Thursday.

But that meeting between lightly regarded teams is nothing like the most bizarre matchup of all-time, which occurred in 1955 when Bradley (7-19) faced Oklahoma City (9-17) in a first-round game in El Reno, Oklahoma. Those two teams received at-large bids and still have the worst records for any teams in tournament history.

Bradley won that showdown 69-65 and remains the only team with a losing mark in tournament history to win a game in the main bracket.

And the winner will be ...

Says Lawrence: "I like Houston and Purdue in the finals," he said of the two No. 2 seeds. "If they get there, the Cougars will cut down the nets this year, and not fall a bucket short." 

My choice is Arizona over Houston.

And apparently I'm not alone in having the Wildcats triumph. BetMGM reported that, as of Tuesday afternoon, more tickets were bought with Arizona taking the title than any other school. The fourth-most tickets were for Purdue.