Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico's Rate Bowl showdown against Minnesota

Three keys and a prediction for New Mexico’s first-ever matchup against Minnesota in the Rate Bowl:

1. Protect the quarterback

If Michigan (good, but maybe not great) and UCLA (bad, but maybe not horrible) represented two ends of a doggedly competitive Big Ten, it’d be fair to say Minnesota presents itself right in the middle of those two programs. For instance:

• The Gophers held opponents to a rock-solid 121.5 rushing yards per game … but ran for a league-worst 103.08 yards on average.
• Minnesota limited opponents to just 44 explosive plays (20 yards or more) this season … but struggled to generate more than 33, the second-worst mark in the Big Ten.
• The Gophers were among the least-penalized teams in the country, rarely turned it over and punted relatively well … but connected on only a mediocre 66.7% of attempted field goals.

All told, those traits balanced out to a solid 7-5 (5-4 in league play) regular season for the Gophers. Good, but not great. Usually solid, but rarely elite.

Except in one key aspect: generating pressure.

In a league featuring two of the best defensive teams in the country (Indiana and Ohio State), the Gophers can be spoken about in the same breath as the Hoosiers and Buckeyes when it comes to rushing the passer. Minnesota finished second in the league (17th in the country) with 35 sacks, far and away the program’s highest in nine seasons under head coach P.J. Fleck.

Why? It’s never just one guy, but defensive end Anthony Smith was a huge reason. The 6-foot-6, 285-pound redshirt junior is one of the Big Ten’s best pass rushers, generating 39 total pressures and 10.5 sacks — the third-best mark in the league. Leading up to the Rate Bowl, it's been a question of whether he will play, transfer, or even test his NFL Draft stock.

“Let me know what he tells you," Fleck said during a news conference last week. “Let me know if you have any insight.”

Smith or no Smith, UNM will have to protect quarterback Jack Layne – and, on the other side of the ball, find ways to make life tough for Minnesota quarterback Drake Lindsey.

2. Win on the ground

The Gophers differ from the rest of their Big Ten counterparts in one notable way: They didn’t run it a lot this season, and when they did, it wasn’t great. Minnesota averaged just 28.67 rushing attempts per game, the 133rd-lowest mark in the 136-team FBS; spread-and-shred San Jose State (26.42) is the next lowest.

UNM has been excellent against the run (113.42 yards allowed per game), especially during the six-game win streak that propelled the Lobos to the Rate Bowl. Taking care of business against the Gophers’ rushing attack while consistently (and effectively) moving the ball on the ground is a straightforward key, but an important one.

3. Force a turnover (and don’t turn it over)

It's a key in all of UNM’s games, but especially this one. UNM came up with 11 takeaways in its last four games of the season, a dramatic about-face after forcing only five in its first eight. In that same late-season stretch, Minnesota didn’t turn it over — which trend will give way in the Rate Bowl?

I’m not sure. But as in all games against Power Four teams, the Lobos’ margin for error is slimmer than in a standard Mountain West game — UNM could use a turnover or two, and it really can’t afford to turn it over much either.

Prediction

UNM — and really, all teams coached by Jason Eck — haven’t had an issue getting up for Power Four games, and it’s hard to imagine the players not buying in for the program’s first bowl since 2016. On the other hand, Minnesota has repeatedly proven it gets up for these games: The Gophers are 6-0 under Fleck in bowls, a mark he attributes to his players more than anything else.

“I think our players take bowl games very, very seriously,” Fleck said in a news conference last Wednesday. “They love football. They want to play football. We take a lot of pride in developing that type of mindset here at the University of Minnesota.”

With all that in mind, this is a tough one. But UNM has consistently found a way when I thought they couldn’t, and I’ll put them down for a historic 10th win in light of that quality. New Mexico 24, Minnesota 23

Sean Reider covers college football and other sports for the Journal. You can reach him at sreider@abqjournal.com or via X at @lenaweereider.