What bowls could the Lobos play in? Ranking the most and least likely possibilities

For the first time in nearly a decade, the Lobos are going bowling.

When and where exactly, remains a question.

New Mexico will learn its bowl destination Sunday after the College Football Playoff (CFP) field is announced. Following a 9-3 regular season under head coach Jason Eck, the Lobos could play one of six bowls with Mountain West tie-ins and affiliations; UNM has not appeared in a bowl since 2016.

A look at how likely some bowls might be for the Lobos heading into Sunday:

Note: The bowl probabilities are listed on a scale of 0-10, with 0 representing an impossibility and 10 indicating a sure thing.

New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 27)

Probability: 9

Why: New Mexico in the New Mexico Bowl is more or less a win-win for everybody involved. From the bowl’s perspective, UNM is a boon for attendance — three of the five crowds to surpass 30,000 in the event’s history were for games featuring the Lobos.

From UNM’s perspective, the New Mexico Bowl saves the program plenty of time and money in regards to the logistical hassles that usually come with bowl trips. Eck has also said he’s all-in on the possibility of playing at home one more time this season.

Consider this far and away the most likely destination for the Lobos.

“I think, for where we are right now, not having been in a bowl game (until) this year, it would be awesome for the program,” Eck said on Nov. 4. “And, you know, I think we’d have a ton of fans here. Hopefully, that would be a great deal. And we’ll have to be creative to do stuff around that if we’re in that bowl game, to make it special and fun to our players.

“ … Now, I plan on being bowl-eligible a lot over the coming years, so I don’t know if I’d want to come to the game three straight years or something. I think we’d probably want to have some changeup … But I think it’d be great for our program, and I think that would help make it easy for our fans to get there obviously.”

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl (Dec. 27)

Probability: 2

Why: This probability is slightly higher than some of the other options simply because of the bowl selection process: The LA Bowl has first dibs among Mountain West teams and almost always selects the league champion, unless that team is playing in the CFP. In that case — and as the LA Bowl did last year — the second-place team (or team that lost in the title game) would be selected.

From there, ESPN Events — which owns the New Mexico Bowl, Hawaii Bowl and Famous Idaho Potato Bowl — gets its first pick. After that, the Arizona Bowl has its selection, and then it goes back to ESPN Events to fill the rest of the necessary slots.

So, here’s a hypothetical: If Boise State were selected for the LA Bowl and UNLV for an ESPN Events bowl, would the Arizona Bowl take a 9-3 UNM team? Or a 9-3 San Diego State team?

It still feels unlikely that the Lobos will play in anything but the New Mexico Bowl, but there’s at least a path for UNM to play at Arizona Stadium. Don’t plan a trip to Tucson quite yet, though.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 22)

Probability: 1

Why: If UNM is to go to an ESPN Events bowl, it’s awfully hard to see it being anything but the New Mexico Bowl. That being said, another trip to Boise, Idaho isn’t completely impossible.

Hawaii Bowl (Dec. 24)

Probability: 0

Why: This one’s already locked up — Hawaii will play Cal, the bowl announced this week.

Rate Bowl (Dec. 26)

Probability: 0

Why: The Rate Bowl is really a Big Ten-Big 12 bowl, but the Mountain West has first dibs if neither conference can fill their slot. But with plenty of bowl-eligible teams between both leagues this season, it looks like the Big Ten and Big 12 won’t have any issues filling these slots, even with a few teams headed for the CFP.

Los Angeles Bowl (Dec. 13)

Probability: 0

Why: As outlined above, the Mountain West’s bid here will go to the league champion, eliminating UNM from another trip to Los Angeles this season.